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Texas Grand Prix Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
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EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: EchoPark Texas Grand Prix
Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at 2:30 p.m. ET at Circuit of the Americas in Austin Texas

Race Info

NASCAR’s Cup Series will resume this upcoming Sunday when the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix takes place at the Circuit of the Americas road course in Austin, Texas.

Drivers must complete a total of 68 laps for this race.

For this event, there are three stages.

Stage 1 concludes with the 15th lap.

Stage 2 ends with the 32nd lap.

The remaining 36 laps bring the final stage to its conclusion.

Just like in previous weeks, an entry list has been released for this event.

So unless unforeseen things happen, we are already aware of who the competitors will be in this race.

There is a change, however, regarding how the starting lineup will be determined.

For most of the previous races, a predetermined formula established the starting lineup.

But for Sunday's Texas Grand Prix, there will be qualifying.

This qualifying will take place on Sunday at 10:35 a.m. ET.

Qualifying will follow practice, which will happen on Saturday, beginning at 10:05 a.m. ET.

Track Info

The reason why qualifying and practice are necessary is that this is the first time that drivers will have competed on this track for NASCAR’s Cup Series.

This course and track were constructed for Formula 1.

Despite the lack of driver history in this track, it is significant and beneficial to know that this is a road course.

There are 20 turns in one lap and each lap consists in 3.426 miles.

So in completing 68 laps, drivers will have accumulated about 233 miles.

Race car drivers regard this track as a difficult one.

On the track, there are corners that demand low speeds from drivers and others that demand high speeds.

This variety in the construction of the track makes preparation for it difficult, which is another reason why drivers require practice on the track before they enter qualifying.

It is also hard to prepare a car for a track that consists in elements — like low-speed and high-speed corners — that are so varied in what they demand from drivers.

Betting Approach

Obviously, we can’t look at driver history at this particular track because this event is a first for NASCAR’s Cup Series.

In order to gain a clear betting perspective, we can and need to account for the fact that this track is a road course.

There are other road courses on NASCAR’s circuit — at Sonoma, for example.. So there exists sufficient empirical data in order to justify an informed betting approach to Sunday’s event.

Drivers To Avoid

One driver to avoid is Kyle Larson.

It may be tempting to invest in Larson in some form because he is enjoying a strong season so far: he ranks 5th and is coming off of two second-place finishes.

However, he is historically weak on road courses. In seven road races, Larson has zero top-five finishes and an average finishing position of 15.4.

Brad Keselowski is another guy to avoid trusting at this track. Historically, he is very hit-or-miss on road courses, often alternating between stretches where he fails to sniff the top-10 and individual races where he achieves a top-10 finish.

His driver rating (since February of 2018) on road courses is even lower than Larson’s.

While he has produced a few positive efforts, there are much more consistent options out there.

Joey Logano’s recent driving rating on road courses is similarly low. So avoid him as well.

My Guys

The two clear-cut road course champs are Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott.

Both have dominant driver ratings on road courses. In nine road races each, the former has two wins while the latter has five.

While Truex Jr., has fewer wins, he has five top-five finishes. So he is at least consistently in the thick of things, which is the kind of consistency we should look for.

Best Bets: Truex Jr. To Win & Elliott To Win (Odds TBA)
 
Harvick, Kyle Busch, Custer, Reddick, and Austin Dillon are running in the Xfinity race on Saturday. So they'll have a little competition edge over the rest.

Buy having said that, it will be hard to get past Chase and Truex this week.
 
Throwing darts this week. I don't see any road course ringers being brought in for this race and listed on the entry list. There are some drivers who have driven on this course before, like Reddick. That may not matter as much since they will have some practice this week. Also, I see there is rain in the forecast.
 
I made one pre-qualifying bet:

Kyle Busch -130 over Hamlin
Waiting on qualifying but I endorse this. Especially after yesterday. Huge advantage for KB being able to race and win the Xfinity race yesterday. I think I put him right under Chase and Truex for the win.

Normally I don't care as much the farther back in the field someone is or if someone has to go to the rear for equipment violations. But I think the guys on the back are at a huge disadvantage at this track. I didn't see guys making their way to the front from the back.
 
Drivers who were in the Top 5 in practice (in the rain) and qualifying (not raining):

Larson
Kyle Busch
Byron

If you stretch that out to the Top 10 add:

Logano
Chase
Blaney
Bell

The forecast is for rain around the start time, turning to thunderstorms, with rain chances decreasing to 30% or so around 4:00.
 
Blaney -120 over Harvick is tempting.
I added this so I have:

Kyle Busch -130 over Hamlin
Kyle Busch Top 3 +201

Smaller amount on Blaney -121 over Harvick

$10 lotto ticket on Reddick at +6500 (this is now +3500 at BM, but +1400 at DK)

Lots of unknowns even with 1 short practice and qualifying.
Will be raining at the start, may not be at the finish.
They will run in the rain, but with thunderstorms in the forecast, they may stop for lightning.
Pit strategy before the end of the second stage could put some at the rear near the front.
 
FFS. Now Blaney to the back after removing some grill tape during the stop. Also Keselowski too.
 
I added this so I have:

Kyle Busch -130 over Hamlin
Kyle Busch Top 3 +201

Smaller amount on Blaney -121 over Harvick

$10 lotto ticket on Reddick at +6500 (this is now +3500 at BM, but +1400 at DK)

Lots of unknowns even with 1 short practice and qualifying.
Will be raining at the start, may not be at the finish.
They will run in the rain, but with thunderstorms in the forecast, they may stop for lightning.
Pit strategy before the end of the second stage could put some at the rear near the front.
Kyle Busch pitting just before the red flag which ended up being the end of the race cost me a sweep.
 
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