Texas A&M vs. South Carolina: NCAAF Week 10 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Texas A&M Aggies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina
Time of Possession
Currently, Texas A&M owns the 19th-highest average time of possession. It possesses the ball for an average of 32:22 per game.
One asset that the Aggies use in order to possess the ball is their size and physicality.
I like them to own time of possession in this game because they possess a significant advantage against the Gamecocks in terms of size and physicality.
They must be all the more motivated to pursue this tactic against the Gamecocks because they know that South Carolina’s last opponent — LSU — did the exact same thing.
The Tigers mauled South Carolina because they are bigger and stronger. They possessed the ball for a ridiculous 37:34 while running the ball 54 times.
Size Differential
Texas A&M’s replication of LSU’s run-first proclivity does not entail the Aggies leaving their comfort zone. They like to maul opposing run defenses.
Utilizing physicality is sure to represent a strong strategy because the Gamecocks cannot do anything to fix this size differential. It is what it is.
At the defensive end positions, the Gamecocks start a 245-pounder and a 270-pounder.
In the interior, they feature a 272-pounder and a 285-pounder.
Now let’s look at the Aggie offensive line.
From left tackle to right tackle, the Aggies start a 315-pounder, a 325-pounder, a 300-pounder, a 325-pounder, and a 320-pounder
To make this point differently: the Gamecock defensive linemen weigh an average 268 pounds.
Texas A&M’s offensive linemen weigh an average of 317 pounds. That’s a 49-pound difference.
It’s not even just about the trenches. It’s also about who the Aggies have running the ball.
At 6-1, 225 pounds, Isaiah Spiller is a very physical running back for the Aggies.
He averages six YPC largely because he is so difficult to bring down.
As Arkansas defenders can confirm, it is just not wise to try to tackle him too high or to try to arm-tackle him.
No matter how defenders try to tackle him, he easily breaks through a lot of contact while wearing defenders down because of how strong he is.
South Carolina’s Offensive Style
South Carolina loves to keep the ball on the ground.
They do have a quarterback who is comfortable with the offense because, like coordinator Mike Bobo, he has come from Colorado State.
While he’s familiar with the offense, he’s not going to be aggressive or throw the ball downfield much. He averages 6.9 YPC.
Instead, the Gamecocks will rely primarily on their ground game. Kevin Harris is their feature back. He leads the team with 93 carries.
Under, Right?
With both teams liking to accumulate of possession and gladly keeping the ball on the ground, it seems like we should pick the “under.”
But the total posted seems much too low to me.
I am going to give some reasons why I do not like the “under” and why I like Texas A&M to cover the spread instead.
Run Defense
In order to do what it wants offensively, South Carolina can’t just run the ball. It has to run the ball effectively.
Texas A&M, though, allows only 3.4 YPC.
One might try to argue that the Aggies have faced a lot of soft offenses with respect to running.
They faced lowly Vanderbilt, a pass-first Gator squad, and other offenses that are unimpressive with respect to their ground game.
But they did also face a Crimson Tide offense that owns the nation’s 30th-best ground game — as measured by YPC — with the likes of Najee Harris.
The Aggies held Najee to 43 rushing yards. Overall, they held Bama to 109 yards on 28 carries.
So South Carolina will give the ball up way more quickly than it wants to. In turn, the Aggies will accumulate time of possession while wearing down South Carolina’s undersized defense.
Red Zone
Defensively, South Carolina is poor in the red zone. In 21 attempts, they’ve allowed 12 red zone touchdowns.
In turn, the Aggies have scored 14 touchdowns in 21 red zone attempts.
They possess height with the likes of 6-5 target Jalen Wydermyer, the tight end who partly uses his size in order to generate an excellent catch radius.
Of course, they’re also able to utilize their effective ground game.
The Verdict
Texas A&M will control this game on both sides of the football. The Aggies will own time of possession, run much more effectively, wear down the Gamecock defense, and be efficient in the red zone.
Best Bet: Aggies -10 at -108 with Heritage
Texas A&M Aggies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina
Time of Possession
Currently, Texas A&M owns the 19th-highest average time of possession. It possesses the ball for an average of 32:22 per game.
One asset that the Aggies use in order to possess the ball is their size and physicality.
I like them to own time of possession in this game because they possess a significant advantage against the Gamecocks in terms of size and physicality.
They must be all the more motivated to pursue this tactic against the Gamecocks because they know that South Carolina’s last opponent — LSU — did the exact same thing.
The Tigers mauled South Carolina because they are bigger and stronger. They possessed the ball for a ridiculous 37:34 while running the ball 54 times.
Size Differential
Texas A&M’s replication of LSU’s run-first proclivity does not entail the Aggies leaving their comfort zone. They like to maul opposing run defenses.
Utilizing physicality is sure to represent a strong strategy because the Gamecocks cannot do anything to fix this size differential. It is what it is.
At the defensive end positions, the Gamecocks start a 245-pounder and a 270-pounder.
In the interior, they feature a 272-pounder and a 285-pounder.
Now let’s look at the Aggie offensive line.
From left tackle to right tackle, the Aggies start a 315-pounder, a 325-pounder, a 300-pounder, a 325-pounder, and a 320-pounder
To make this point differently: the Gamecock defensive linemen weigh an average 268 pounds.
Texas A&M’s offensive linemen weigh an average of 317 pounds. That’s a 49-pound difference.
It’s not even just about the trenches. It’s also about who the Aggies have running the ball.
At 6-1, 225 pounds, Isaiah Spiller is a very physical running back for the Aggies.
He averages six YPC largely because he is so difficult to bring down.
As Arkansas defenders can confirm, it is just not wise to try to tackle him too high or to try to arm-tackle him.
No matter how defenders try to tackle him, he easily breaks through a lot of contact while wearing defenders down because of how strong he is.
South Carolina’s Offensive Style
South Carolina loves to keep the ball on the ground.
They do have a quarterback who is comfortable with the offense because, like coordinator Mike Bobo, he has come from Colorado State.
While he’s familiar with the offense, he’s not going to be aggressive or throw the ball downfield much. He averages 6.9 YPC.
Instead, the Gamecocks will rely primarily on their ground game. Kevin Harris is their feature back. He leads the team with 93 carries.
Under, Right?
With both teams liking to accumulate of possession and gladly keeping the ball on the ground, it seems like we should pick the “under.”
But the total posted seems much too low to me.
I am going to give some reasons why I do not like the “under” and why I like Texas A&M to cover the spread instead.
Run Defense
In order to do what it wants offensively, South Carolina can’t just run the ball. It has to run the ball effectively.
Texas A&M, though, allows only 3.4 YPC.
One might try to argue that the Aggies have faced a lot of soft offenses with respect to running.
They faced lowly Vanderbilt, a pass-first Gator squad, and other offenses that are unimpressive with respect to their ground game.
But they did also face a Crimson Tide offense that owns the nation’s 30th-best ground game — as measured by YPC — with the likes of Najee Harris.
The Aggies held Najee to 43 rushing yards. Overall, they held Bama to 109 yards on 28 carries.
So South Carolina will give the ball up way more quickly than it wants to. In turn, the Aggies will accumulate time of possession while wearing down South Carolina’s undersized defense.
Red Zone
Defensively, South Carolina is poor in the red zone. In 21 attempts, they’ve allowed 12 red zone touchdowns.
In turn, the Aggies have scored 14 touchdowns in 21 red zone attempts.
They possess height with the likes of 6-5 target Jalen Wydermyer, the tight end who partly uses his size in order to generate an excellent catch radius.
Of course, they’re also able to utilize their effective ground game.
The Verdict
Texas A&M will control this game on both sides of the football. The Aggies will own time of possession, run much more effectively, wear down the Gamecock defense, and be efficient in the red zone.
Best Bet: Aggies -10 at -108 with Heritage
