Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Texas Bowl 2023 Best Bets: Aggies Have Too Much Depth
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 9 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Addressing The Easy Angle
The easy angle to take on this game is to bet on Oklahoma State because the Aggies will miss a bunch of players and coaches.
But sometimes we have to work a little harder to appreciate what the best bet is.
The Aggies have a ton of depth both in terms of players and experienced coaches.
The Proper Angle
The best way to bet this game is to invest in the Aggies for two reasons, which I will explain.
One, the Aggies have key matchup advantages.
Two, they do have the players and coaches that they need to exploit those matchup advantages.
Oklahoma State's Awful Quarterback
In order to explain the Aggies' matchup advantage on defense, you need to understand Oklahoma State's situation on offense.
This season, the Cowboys have had a revolving door at quarterback because they lack a quarterback good enough to secure the starting job for himself.
Alan Bowman is the one who started for them in their Conference Championship blowout loss to Texas.
Bowman is quite simply a terrible quarterback.
His inefficiency is evident in the fact that he often struggles to complete more than half his passes.
Besides being inefficient, he makes a lot of mistakes -- he has thrown twelve interceptions to thirteen touchdowns on the season.
He'll struggle to be productive even against the softest competition.
Take the Central Arkansas game, for example.
I don't care who the Aggies are missing on defense: their backups will still be way more talented than the players whom Bowman faced in his game against Central Arkansas.
And yet, against Central Arkansas, Bowman was 13-for-24 with 80 yards.
It is true that Bowman's numbers often looked better in later games as he became more comfortable in the Pokes' offense.
But his stat line in that game is still telling because, in that game, he showed many of the problems that he'd show later in the season as well.
One problem with Bowman is his lack of accuracy.
Given his deficiencies as a quarterback, in order to perform decently in a game, he needed to face a soft pass defense and to have his star running back thrive.
By having these advantages, he could make up somewhat for his inaccuracy.
So, for example, with the support of a 164-yard rushing output from Ollie Gordon II, he played relatively well against Houston's 113th-ranked pass defense.
However, against UCF's 39th-ranked pass defense, in a game in which Gordon II struggled, he threw three interceptions and his team lost 45-3.
The key takeaway here is that Bowman is not going to win this game.
If Oklahoma State wins this game, it won't be due to its defense, either, as I will explain.
If the Cowboys win, it'll be due to their running game.
Ollie Gordon II
Let's be fair: Oklahoma State does have a running back who, by all accounts, is pretty good.
However, it is just as fair to say that Ollie Gordon II struggles against good run defenses.
Texas A&M's will be the second top-30 run defense that Gordon II will have faced this season.
The other strong run defense that he faced was Texas'.
The Cowboys were blown out in that game because they couldn't rely on Gordon II's running: against Texas, he mustered 34 rushing yards on 13 carries.
The Aggies rank 16th nationally against the run.
Do Texas A&M's Absences Matter?
The point that Cowboys backers will try to make is admittedly an easy one to make, but it is a point that doesn't hold water.
They will say that the Aggies are going to miss key defenders and that, without these defenders, they lack a good run defense.
Key Depth Pieces
The important run-stoppers who Texas A&M will miss are defensive linemen Walter Nolen and McKinnley Jackson and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper.
But the Aggies still have so many great run-stopping pieces, including those who will get to assume more responsibility to fill in for the absent players.
Shemar Turner has earned a high-level run-stop rate during the regular season partly with his speed that he uses to chase down running backs. He ably sets the edge.
A strongly graded run defender according to PFF, Chris Russell Jr. will be one player to step up at linebacker.
On the defensive line, complementing Turner, Isaiah Raikes will be another player to step up, after contributing consistent snaps in the regular season as a hugely physical and very strong force.
With guys like these, Texas A&M will still have a strong run defense.
Oklahoma State's Awful Defense
If we don't like the Cowboys' offense, then it's impossible to like the Cowboys at all.
Their defense is awful, ranking 105th nationally against the run and 121st nationally against the pass.
It's not like they are just getting beaten up by juggernauts.
The Cowboys allowed, for example, 33 points to low-profile South Alabama.
Later, they allowed 30 points to a Houston team that ranks 86th with 23.7 points per game.
Offenses easily overperform against the Cowboys' defense.
Any case made in favor of OK State in this bowl game will have to rely on the point that Texas A&M's offense will be incompetent.
Aggies Coaching
It is true that the Aggies' coaching staff is enduring flux.
But there is more than enough experience and competence left to guide the Aggies' offense.
Position coach James Coley, for example, has gained offensive coordinator experience at Florida State, Miami, and Georgia.
Aggies' Offense
Jaylen Henderson will start at quarterback.
In his most recent game, the developing sophomore completed over 70 percent of his passes against LSU, throwing for 294 yards and two touchdowns to one interception.
He can also do some running, as can a multitude of Texas A&M's efficient running backs.
Their running success, along with Henderson being more than good enough as a passer, contributed to the Aggies' 51-10 victory over Mississippi State, whose defense is nowhere as bad as Oklahoma State's.
The point is that Texas A&M had the nation's 20th-ranked scoring offense in the regular season and that it would take way more losses on offense to justify concern for the outlook of this group against OK State's dismal defense.
Best Bet: Texas A&M ML at -130 with BetOnline
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 9 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Addressing The Easy Angle
The easy angle to take on this game is to bet on Oklahoma State because the Aggies will miss a bunch of players and coaches.
But sometimes we have to work a little harder to appreciate what the best bet is.
The Aggies have a ton of depth both in terms of players and experienced coaches.
The Proper Angle
The best way to bet this game is to invest in the Aggies for two reasons, which I will explain.
One, the Aggies have key matchup advantages.
Two, they do have the players and coaches that they need to exploit those matchup advantages.
Oklahoma State's Awful Quarterback
In order to explain the Aggies' matchup advantage on defense, you need to understand Oklahoma State's situation on offense.
This season, the Cowboys have had a revolving door at quarterback because they lack a quarterback good enough to secure the starting job for himself.
Alan Bowman is the one who started for them in their Conference Championship blowout loss to Texas.
Bowman is quite simply a terrible quarterback.
His inefficiency is evident in the fact that he often struggles to complete more than half his passes.
Besides being inefficient, he makes a lot of mistakes -- he has thrown twelve interceptions to thirteen touchdowns on the season.
He'll struggle to be productive even against the softest competition.
Take the Central Arkansas game, for example.
I don't care who the Aggies are missing on defense: their backups will still be way more talented than the players whom Bowman faced in his game against Central Arkansas.
And yet, against Central Arkansas, Bowman was 13-for-24 with 80 yards.
It is true that Bowman's numbers often looked better in later games as he became more comfortable in the Pokes' offense.
But his stat line in that game is still telling because, in that game, he showed many of the problems that he'd show later in the season as well.
One problem with Bowman is his lack of accuracy.
Given his deficiencies as a quarterback, in order to perform decently in a game, he needed to face a soft pass defense and to have his star running back thrive.
By having these advantages, he could make up somewhat for his inaccuracy.
So, for example, with the support of a 164-yard rushing output from Ollie Gordon II, he played relatively well against Houston's 113th-ranked pass defense.
However, against UCF's 39th-ranked pass defense, in a game in which Gordon II struggled, he threw three interceptions and his team lost 45-3.
The key takeaway here is that Bowman is not going to win this game.
If Oklahoma State wins this game, it won't be due to its defense, either, as I will explain.
If the Cowboys win, it'll be due to their running game.
Ollie Gordon II
Let's be fair: Oklahoma State does have a running back who, by all accounts, is pretty good.
However, it is just as fair to say that Ollie Gordon II struggles against good run defenses.
Texas A&M's will be the second top-30 run defense that Gordon II will have faced this season.
The other strong run defense that he faced was Texas'.
The Cowboys were blown out in that game because they couldn't rely on Gordon II's running: against Texas, he mustered 34 rushing yards on 13 carries.
The Aggies rank 16th nationally against the run.
Do Texas A&M's Absences Matter?
The point that Cowboys backers will try to make is admittedly an easy one to make, but it is a point that doesn't hold water.
They will say that the Aggies are going to miss key defenders and that, without these defenders, they lack a good run defense.
Key Depth Pieces
The important run-stoppers who Texas A&M will miss are defensive linemen Walter Nolen and McKinnley Jackson and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper.
But the Aggies still have so many great run-stopping pieces, including those who will get to assume more responsibility to fill in for the absent players.
Shemar Turner has earned a high-level run-stop rate during the regular season partly with his speed that he uses to chase down running backs. He ably sets the edge.
A strongly graded run defender according to PFF, Chris Russell Jr. will be one player to step up at linebacker.
On the defensive line, complementing Turner, Isaiah Raikes will be another player to step up, after contributing consistent snaps in the regular season as a hugely physical and very strong force.
With guys like these, Texas A&M will still have a strong run defense.
Oklahoma State's Awful Defense
If we don't like the Cowboys' offense, then it's impossible to like the Cowboys at all.
Their defense is awful, ranking 105th nationally against the run and 121st nationally against the pass.
It's not like they are just getting beaten up by juggernauts.
The Cowboys allowed, for example, 33 points to low-profile South Alabama.
Later, they allowed 30 points to a Houston team that ranks 86th with 23.7 points per game.
Offenses easily overperform against the Cowboys' defense.
Any case made in favor of OK State in this bowl game will have to rely on the point that Texas A&M's offense will be incompetent.
Aggies Coaching
It is true that the Aggies' coaching staff is enduring flux.
But there is more than enough experience and competence left to guide the Aggies' offense.
Position coach James Coley, for example, has gained offensive coordinator experience at Florida State, Miami, and Georgia.
Aggies' Offense
Jaylen Henderson will start at quarterback.
In his most recent game, the developing sophomore completed over 70 percent of his passes against LSU, throwing for 294 yards and two touchdowns to one interception.
He can also do some running, as can a multitude of Texas A&M's efficient running backs.
Their running success, along with Henderson being more than good enough as a passer, contributed to the Aggies' 51-10 victory over Mississippi State, whose defense is nowhere as bad as Oklahoma State's.
The point is that Texas A&M had the nation's 20th-ranked scoring offense in the regular season and that it would take way more losses on offense to justify concern for the outlook of this group against OK State's dismal defense.
Best Bet: Texas A&M ML at -130 with BetOnline
