Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State: NCAAF Week 7 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi
Aggies Pass Offense vs. Bulldogs Pass Defense
Offensively, Texas A&M revolves around quarterback Kellen Mond.
Its success lives and dies with the team’s pass attack because the Aggies own the nation’s 12th-highest pass play percentage.
This dependence on passing is interested given how thin the Aggies were shaping up to be at the wide receiver position. They also miss Jhamon Ausbon who opted out.
Particularly without Ausbon, Mond lacks a go-to receiver. In fact, his top pass-catcher is a running back.
While the Aggies will feature a bevy of wide receivers as pass-catching options, Mississippi State is schematically well-prepared with its 3-3-5 defense to face multiple-receiver formations.
The Bulldogs also benefit from just having faced a team with a mobile quarterback in Kentucky’s Terry Wilson.
Mond doesn’t tend to run as much or as well as Wilson. So it’s helpful to note that the Bulldogs shut Wilson’s passing down, limiting him to eight of 20 passing. They are comfortable in coverage with an opposing mobile quarterback.
Mississippi State Pass Defense
Currently, the Bulldogs’ pass defense ranks second in the SEC.
After limiting their last two opponents — Arkansas and Kentucky — to fewer than 40 points combined, the Mississippi State defense is fulfilling expectations and satisfying hopes.
One big expectation was that Miss State strongly improves its pass rush.
Improvement in this area was expected due to the team’s returning personnel.
Nathan Pickering, for example, was an All-SEC Freshman last year. He and Kobe Jones combined for seven sacks last year. Both have combined for three so far.
Taking advantage of the opportunity to make an impact this season from the beginning, Pickering is one of four Bulldogs who have at least two sacks.
With guys like Pickering, the defense ranks ninth nationally in sack percentage.
As for the team’s hope, the secondary was more of a question mark.
But so far the Bulldogs own the second-best pass defense in the conference based on opposing pass yards per game.
One corner to look out for is Martin Emerson who was a PFF All-America honorable mention as a freshman.
Mississippi State Offense vs. Aggie Defense
It’s too easy to dismiss the Bulldog offense after its last performance against Kentucky.
But one can’t forget that the Wildcats were already supposed to have one of the nation’s top pass defenses — statistically they had the second-best secondary last year and added to its quality during the offseason.
In coach Mike Leach’s air raid system, the Bulldogs feature a relatively wide variety of wide receivers.
Five different Bulldog wide receivers have caught at least nine passes so far.
K.J. Costello, who came from Stanford to run this offense, is completing 66.1 percent of his passes.
He flexes a strong arm with which he can throw accurate balls downfield or launch passes from one side of the field to the other.
Costello has plenty of well-sized targets as three Bulldog receivers are at least 6-3.
With opposing defensive backs focused on Miss State’s assortment of wide receivers, running back Kylin Hill has emerged as a peculiarly important pass-catcher.
Hill’s absence was crucial in the team’s loss against Arkansas. Against Kentucky, he accumulated 15 receptions.
With the ball in his hands, Hill is superb due to his ability to break tackles and his vision. He is strong and he quickly identifies propitious running lanes.
Overall, the Bulldogs promise to thrive in the air against an Aggie pass defense that ranks nearly last-place nationally in opposing passer rating.
They miss, for example, former top JUCO product cornerback Elijah Blades. He opted out.
The Verdict
After a very emotional home win against the highly-ranked Gators, the Aggies will need to overcome this classic let-down scenario.
For match-up reasons, I like Mississippi State to pull off an upset of its own.
The Bulldogs will win with their strong pass defense that is stabilized by a combination of good pass rush and good coverage. They feature plenty of players who reliably perform both functions.
Offensively, Miss State will bounce back with Costello and his chemistry with the superb Hill and a number of Bulldog receivers against a significantly easier defense.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +7 (-120) with Bovada
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi
Aggies Pass Offense vs. Bulldogs Pass Defense
Offensively, Texas A&M revolves around quarterback Kellen Mond.
Its success lives and dies with the team’s pass attack because the Aggies own the nation’s 12th-highest pass play percentage.
This dependence on passing is interested given how thin the Aggies were shaping up to be at the wide receiver position. They also miss Jhamon Ausbon who opted out.
Particularly without Ausbon, Mond lacks a go-to receiver. In fact, his top pass-catcher is a running back.
While the Aggies will feature a bevy of wide receivers as pass-catching options, Mississippi State is schematically well-prepared with its 3-3-5 defense to face multiple-receiver formations.
The Bulldogs also benefit from just having faced a team with a mobile quarterback in Kentucky’s Terry Wilson.
Mond doesn’t tend to run as much or as well as Wilson. So it’s helpful to note that the Bulldogs shut Wilson’s passing down, limiting him to eight of 20 passing. They are comfortable in coverage with an opposing mobile quarterback.
Mississippi State Pass Defense
Currently, the Bulldogs’ pass defense ranks second in the SEC.
After limiting their last two opponents — Arkansas and Kentucky — to fewer than 40 points combined, the Mississippi State defense is fulfilling expectations and satisfying hopes.
One big expectation was that Miss State strongly improves its pass rush.
Improvement in this area was expected due to the team’s returning personnel.
Nathan Pickering, for example, was an All-SEC Freshman last year. He and Kobe Jones combined for seven sacks last year. Both have combined for three so far.
Taking advantage of the opportunity to make an impact this season from the beginning, Pickering is one of four Bulldogs who have at least two sacks.
With guys like Pickering, the defense ranks ninth nationally in sack percentage.
As for the team’s hope, the secondary was more of a question mark.
But so far the Bulldogs own the second-best pass defense in the conference based on opposing pass yards per game.
One corner to look out for is Martin Emerson who was a PFF All-America honorable mention as a freshman.
Mississippi State Offense vs. Aggie Defense
It’s too easy to dismiss the Bulldog offense after its last performance against Kentucky.
But one can’t forget that the Wildcats were already supposed to have one of the nation’s top pass defenses — statistically they had the second-best secondary last year and added to its quality during the offseason.
In coach Mike Leach’s air raid system, the Bulldogs feature a relatively wide variety of wide receivers.
Five different Bulldog wide receivers have caught at least nine passes so far.
K.J. Costello, who came from Stanford to run this offense, is completing 66.1 percent of his passes.
He flexes a strong arm with which he can throw accurate balls downfield or launch passes from one side of the field to the other.
Costello has plenty of well-sized targets as three Bulldog receivers are at least 6-3.
With opposing defensive backs focused on Miss State’s assortment of wide receivers, running back Kylin Hill has emerged as a peculiarly important pass-catcher.
Hill’s absence was crucial in the team’s loss against Arkansas. Against Kentucky, he accumulated 15 receptions.
With the ball in his hands, Hill is superb due to his ability to break tackles and his vision. He is strong and he quickly identifies propitious running lanes.
Overall, the Bulldogs promise to thrive in the air against an Aggie pass defense that ranks nearly last-place nationally in opposing passer rating.
They miss, for example, former top JUCO product cornerback Elijah Blades. He opted out.
The Verdict
After a very emotional home win against the highly-ranked Gators, the Aggies will need to overcome this classic let-down scenario.
For match-up reasons, I like Mississippi State to pull off an upset of its own.
The Bulldogs will win with their strong pass defense that is stabilized by a combination of good pass rush and good coverage. They feature plenty of players who reliably perform both functions.
Offensively, Miss State will bounce back with Costello and his chemistry with the superb Hill and a number of Bulldog receivers against a significantly easier defense.
Best Bet: Bulldogs +7 (-120) with Bovada
