Mond Holds The Keys To Successful Texas A&M Season
Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: Over 7.5 Wins (-145)
Team Preview
Quarterback Kellen Mond made significant strides from his first season to his second. He improved his completion percentage by 5.8 and his yards per attempt by 1.4 despite throwing 188 more passes. He also doubled his touchdown-to-interception ratio. Four of the nine interceptions that he threw came in September, including two at Alabama.
Mond improved overall and during last year while experiencing a learning curve under first-year head coach Jimbo Fisher and first-year offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey. To be clearer, the learning curve itself and not his coaches was the obstacle to Mond's performance. After all, coach Fisher has constructed a remarkable track record of producing first-round quarterbacks (regardless of how they perform in the NFL). The list includes: JaMarcus Russell, E.J. Manuel, Christian Ponder, and Jameis Winston.
Under Fisher, (as opposed to prior coach Kevin Sumlin) Mond improves as a pocket passer. He does a better job of seeing the field, anticipating his receivers, making pre-snap reads, and going through progressions. This improvement is evident in his lower interception ratio throughout last season and is further substantiated by Spring reports. He makes crisp throws under pressure and in general is better at getting the ball downfield. His decision-making is improved. He has a stronger arm and obviously still makes use of his mobility and makes accurate throws on the run.
While Mond's individual strides forward in the second year as a starter under Fisher and Dickey will be paramount to Texas A&M's success, he'll be helped by significant surrounding talent.
Jashaun Corbin is the team's leading returning rusher (after Mond). He averaged 5.7 yards on 61 carries. In limited action, he achieved 20+-yard runs against NC State and Mississippi State. He was reliable between the tackles and showed top-end speed like in his 100-yard kickoff return. Although their recruiting profiles were extremeley similar and although Corbin was named to the All-SEC freshman team, it would be gold digging to hope for Corbin to match Trayveon Williams' insane numbers. Still, Corbin has a lot of talented depth behind him and an offensive line that returns 69 career starts to help maintain the Aggies' rush attack.
A departed tight end led last year's pass-catching group because the wide receivers had bad injury luck. One such receiver was Kendrick Rogers. Rogers deservedly receives the most hype not only because he caught seven passes for 120 yards against Clemson. But he is also a game-changer when his overall game numbers don't show it. In Texas A&M's seven-overtime slugfest against LSU, he made ridiculous grabs, all of which came in overtime and all of which were crucial to A&M's victory. His physical skill set is the biggest reason why he's projected as a possible first-round pick. He's tall at 6-4 but plays well beyond his height with a superb catch radius and acrobatic ability that allows him to make improbable grabs in the air. He'll benefit from already enjoying chemistry with Mond. In fact, all Aggie wide receivers return from last year.
A&M's defensive line made the biggest contribution to its national ranking of ninth in allowing 3.3 YPC and of eighth in sack rate. It loses three, but will reload to make life easier for its linebackers and secondary. One breakout player will be defensive end Michael Clemons, who missed last season due to injury but in the preceding Spring was named the team's Defensive Most Improved Player. On the interior, sophomore Bobby Brown looks to build on his All-SEC freshman team campaign. He is enormous at 6'4, 330 pounds, yet ran a 4.9 40-yard dash this Spring. He gets off the ground well and enjoys strong burst.
At linebacker, the Aggies return five with starting experience plus Charles Oliver (11 starts) at the Rover position. The secondary returns all but one. It will take a step forward while opponents that beat A&M or played them close last year like South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Auburn take a step backwards with a top quarterback or top wide receiver departing. At cornerback, Debione Renfro's weakness is his lack of top-end speed. But he doesn't get left alone on islands and opposing quarterbacks don't get too much time to sit back, anyways. He makes up for that lack of speed with his physicality at the line of scrimmage to disturb receivers' routes, his technique, his route recognition, and his length. Elijah Blades also arrives as the nation's top JuCo transfer who does possess speed.
Schedule
On the one hand, the Aggies have to face Clemson (September 7 on the road) and Alabama (October 12 at home, where the Aggies lost by only eight as 25-point underdogs in 2017) plus Georgia and LSU on the road in the final two games. On the other hand, they play all of the next-tiered opponents at home. So while we may be talking about the Aggies 'scraping by' the posted win total with eight wins (notwithstanding that beating either Georgia or LSU is absolutely realistic), we should remain certain of them doing so.
Texas State on August 29, Lamar on September 14, Arkansas on September 28, Ole Miss on October 19, and UTSA on November 2 are automatic wins. The Razorbacks and Rebels are fringe bowl teams at best and very much still rebuilding.
To definitely win our bet, we'll need A&M to beat Auburn at home on September 21, Mississippi State at home on October 26, and South Carolina at home on November 16 (the Aggies come off a bye week). Let's go through each game.
Auburn will field a new quarterback whose first ever SEC game will be at Texas A&M's notoriously hostile venue where the Aggies finished 6-1 last year, losing only to Clemson. Whoever Auburn's starting quarterback will be will have to find chemistry with wide receivers who will also be rather new because the Tigers return only one at this position. The Tigers are already 2-5 in SEC road openers under coach Malzahn and a one-dimensional offensive attack will help make them 2-6. The Aggies will also have a chip on their shoulders after somehow blowing a late two-touchdown lead in last year's match-up. Both touchdowns were engineered by departed quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Mississippi State has lost nine road games in a row against ranked opponents. It will also have to visit Kyle Field with a new starting quarterback. Tommy Stevens will replace Nick Fitzgerald, who was the heart and soul of Miss State's offense and was its biggest offensive reason for beating A&M at home. A larger problem for MSU will likely be the defense, which was the strength of last year's team. It lost three players in the first round, four overall. In particular, the defensive line will be a liability after losing two first-rounders, all four starters overall, and barely returning any experience.
South Carolina is 0-5 in SEC play against the Aggies and has lost 10 straight against ranked opponents. Under coach Muschamp, the Gamecocks are 0-8 on the road against ranked opponents. Their biggest liabilities against A&M will be offensive balance and the entire defense. South Carolina lacks much proven talent at running back and has significant strides to make on defense after allowing opponents to accrue over 13 yards above their respective season average. In last year's home loss, the Cocks relied on top receiver Deebo Samuel for almost half of their passing yards. They will miss his speed and playmaking ability. On the other side, departed running back Trayveon Williams didn't even have to do much for the Aggies, who relied on Mond's 350-yard passing game.
Beating Georgia or LSU would be a nice bonus. The Bulldogs' pass rush was anemic last year, achieving only 24 sacks. The defensive line must make serious strides to help out a linebacking corps that returns only one starter. Mond should enjoy plenty of time to operate. While the Aggies are 0-4 in SEC road finales, this trend is rather meaningless because coach Fisher has only been at A&M for one year. He has constructed a solid history of beating top teams on the road. In 2015 his Florida State Seminoles beat #10 Florida on the road and in 2016 they beat #10 Miami away.
Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: Over 7.5 Wins (-145)
Team Preview
Quarterback Kellen Mond made significant strides from his first season to his second. He improved his completion percentage by 5.8 and his yards per attempt by 1.4 despite throwing 188 more passes. He also doubled his touchdown-to-interception ratio. Four of the nine interceptions that he threw came in September, including two at Alabama.
Mond improved overall and during last year while experiencing a learning curve under first-year head coach Jimbo Fisher and first-year offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey. To be clearer, the learning curve itself and not his coaches was the obstacle to Mond's performance. After all, coach Fisher has constructed a remarkable track record of producing first-round quarterbacks (regardless of how they perform in the NFL). The list includes: JaMarcus Russell, E.J. Manuel, Christian Ponder, and Jameis Winston.
Under Fisher, (as opposed to prior coach Kevin Sumlin) Mond improves as a pocket passer. He does a better job of seeing the field, anticipating his receivers, making pre-snap reads, and going through progressions. This improvement is evident in his lower interception ratio throughout last season and is further substantiated by Spring reports. He makes crisp throws under pressure and in general is better at getting the ball downfield. His decision-making is improved. He has a stronger arm and obviously still makes use of his mobility and makes accurate throws on the run.
While Mond's individual strides forward in the second year as a starter under Fisher and Dickey will be paramount to Texas A&M's success, he'll be helped by significant surrounding talent.
Jashaun Corbin is the team's leading returning rusher (after Mond). He averaged 5.7 yards on 61 carries. In limited action, he achieved 20+-yard runs against NC State and Mississippi State. He was reliable between the tackles and showed top-end speed like in his 100-yard kickoff return. Although their recruiting profiles were extremeley similar and although Corbin was named to the All-SEC freshman team, it would be gold digging to hope for Corbin to match Trayveon Williams' insane numbers. Still, Corbin has a lot of talented depth behind him and an offensive line that returns 69 career starts to help maintain the Aggies' rush attack.
A departed tight end led last year's pass-catching group because the wide receivers had bad injury luck. One such receiver was Kendrick Rogers. Rogers deservedly receives the most hype not only because he caught seven passes for 120 yards against Clemson. But he is also a game-changer when his overall game numbers don't show it. In Texas A&M's seven-overtime slugfest against LSU, he made ridiculous grabs, all of which came in overtime and all of which were crucial to A&M's victory. His physical skill set is the biggest reason why he's projected as a possible first-round pick. He's tall at 6-4 but plays well beyond his height with a superb catch radius and acrobatic ability that allows him to make improbable grabs in the air. He'll benefit from already enjoying chemistry with Mond. In fact, all Aggie wide receivers return from last year.
A&M's defensive line made the biggest contribution to its national ranking of ninth in allowing 3.3 YPC and of eighth in sack rate. It loses three, but will reload to make life easier for its linebackers and secondary. One breakout player will be defensive end Michael Clemons, who missed last season due to injury but in the preceding Spring was named the team's Defensive Most Improved Player. On the interior, sophomore Bobby Brown looks to build on his All-SEC freshman team campaign. He is enormous at 6'4, 330 pounds, yet ran a 4.9 40-yard dash this Spring. He gets off the ground well and enjoys strong burst.
At linebacker, the Aggies return five with starting experience plus Charles Oliver (11 starts) at the Rover position. The secondary returns all but one. It will take a step forward while opponents that beat A&M or played them close last year like South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Auburn take a step backwards with a top quarterback or top wide receiver departing. At cornerback, Debione Renfro's weakness is his lack of top-end speed. But he doesn't get left alone on islands and opposing quarterbacks don't get too much time to sit back, anyways. He makes up for that lack of speed with his physicality at the line of scrimmage to disturb receivers' routes, his technique, his route recognition, and his length. Elijah Blades also arrives as the nation's top JuCo transfer who does possess speed.
Schedule
On the one hand, the Aggies have to face Clemson (September 7 on the road) and Alabama (October 12 at home, where the Aggies lost by only eight as 25-point underdogs in 2017) plus Georgia and LSU on the road in the final two games. On the other hand, they play all of the next-tiered opponents at home. So while we may be talking about the Aggies 'scraping by' the posted win total with eight wins (notwithstanding that beating either Georgia or LSU is absolutely realistic), we should remain certain of them doing so.
Texas State on August 29, Lamar on September 14, Arkansas on September 28, Ole Miss on October 19, and UTSA on November 2 are automatic wins. The Razorbacks and Rebels are fringe bowl teams at best and very much still rebuilding.
To definitely win our bet, we'll need A&M to beat Auburn at home on September 21, Mississippi State at home on October 26, and South Carolina at home on November 16 (the Aggies come off a bye week). Let's go through each game.
Auburn will field a new quarterback whose first ever SEC game will be at Texas A&M's notoriously hostile venue where the Aggies finished 6-1 last year, losing only to Clemson. Whoever Auburn's starting quarterback will be will have to find chemistry with wide receivers who will also be rather new because the Tigers return only one at this position. The Tigers are already 2-5 in SEC road openers under coach Malzahn and a one-dimensional offensive attack will help make them 2-6. The Aggies will also have a chip on their shoulders after somehow blowing a late two-touchdown lead in last year's match-up. Both touchdowns were engineered by departed quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Mississippi State has lost nine road games in a row against ranked opponents. It will also have to visit Kyle Field with a new starting quarterback. Tommy Stevens will replace Nick Fitzgerald, who was the heart and soul of Miss State's offense and was its biggest offensive reason for beating A&M at home. A larger problem for MSU will likely be the defense, which was the strength of last year's team. It lost three players in the first round, four overall. In particular, the defensive line will be a liability after losing two first-rounders, all four starters overall, and barely returning any experience.
South Carolina is 0-5 in SEC play against the Aggies and has lost 10 straight against ranked opponents. Under coach Muschamp, the Gamecocks are 0-8 on the road against ranked opponents. Their biggest liabilities against A&M will be offensive balance and the entire defense. South Carolina lacks much proven talent at running back and has significant strides to make on defense after allowing opponents to accrue over 13 yards above their respective season average. In last year's home loss, the Cocks relied on top receiver Deebo Samuel for almost half of their passing yards. They will miss his speed and playmaking ability. On the other side, departed running back Trayveon Williams didn't even have to do much for the Aggies, who relied on Mond's 350-yard passing game.
Beating Georgia or LSU would be a nice bonus. The Bulldogs' pass rush was anemic last year, achieving only 24 sacks. The defensive line must make serious strides to help out a linebacking corps that returns only one starter. Mond should enjoy plenty of time to operate. While the Aggies are 0-4 in SEC road finales, this trend is rather meaningless because coach Fisher has only been at A&M for one year. He has constructed a solid history of beating top teams on the road. In 2015 his Florida State Seminoles beat #10 Florida on the road and in 2016 they beat #10 Miami away.
