NFL Week 16 Parlay (+260): Titans to Win Crucial Low-Scoring Game
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville
Best Bet: Parlay Titans -3 at -113 & Under 35.5 at -110 at +260 odds with BetOnline
The Odds
Houston might seem to be playable at +3 because its recent games have looked competitive.
While the Texans did almost beat Dallas, the Cowboys have been playing sloppily since they dominated Minnesota.
This sloppiness is evident in the number of turnovers they're committing and it might have to do with their eagerness to play the Eagles -- they might have already been looking ahead to that great divisional game.
Likewise, the Texans did go to overtime with the Chiefs, but the Chiefs outgained them by an absurd margin: the Chiefs had 502 yards to Houston's 219.
Again, Houston benefitted from Chief turnovers, which allowed them to remain competitive.
Tennessee is unlike either team -- the Cowboys or the Chiefs -- because the Titans cannot afford to be sloppy.
They will enter this game highly motivated as they need to snap their ongoing losing streak, which has been generated by competition vastly superior to Houston, especially with Jacksonville breathing down their necks in the AFC South race.
Laying only three points at home to Houston seems completely uncalled for.
This spread implies that these teams would be approximately even on a neutral field, and I cannot believe that one-win Houston could be expected to be this competitive against any team, let alone against the potential AFC South champs.
In sum, getting the Titans at -3 is a steal.
Injury Issues on Titans' Offensive Line
Texan backers will want to cite Tennessee's injury-related issues on offense and defense.
But citing the Titan injury report easily becomes disingenuous because the Titans have had multiple players battle through injuries.
One speaks of Tennessee's offensive line being laden with injury problems, for example.
However, before these teams faced off in Week 8, three starting Titan offensive linemen and a Titan backup o-lineman were on the injury report.
Despite the banged-up status of Tennessee's run-blockers, star running back Derrick Henry amassed over 200 rushing yards.
Treylon Burks
On offense, Tennessee might in fact be better off health-wise than it was when it faced the Texans in Week 8.
Wide receiver Treylon Burks, who did not play against the Texans, has returned to practice after a concussion kept him out of his team's last two games.
Burks' presence is significant because he easily leads the Titans in receiving yards per game.
He is a big-play threat who ably achieves contested catches.
His combination of speed, catch radius, size, and athleticism helps explain why has a team co-leading six receptions of 20 yards or more even though he's only played in eight games so far.
On the other side, Houston badly needs cornerback help.
The Texans tried to address this need by drafting Derek Stingley with the third pick in the first round of last year's NFL Draft.
However, Stingley incurred a hamstring injury that landed him on Injured Reserve.
Without him, the Texans remain stuck with no-namers at cornerback who will be vulnerable to Burks' skill set.
Titan Defense's Injuries
Jeffery Simmons' appearance on the Titan injury report is nothing new as he has been playing through an ankle injury for month now.
Simmons was able to play in his team's earlier contest against Houston.
In that game, Simmons achieved a run stuff and a sack.
His run-stopping prowess helped limit Houston leading rusher Dameon Pierce to 2.3 YPC on 15 rush attempts.
Simmons is a monster at defensive tackle whose tackle radius helps him swallow up opposing running backs.
He's all the more primed to repeat his effort this week because Houston's starting running back is on Injured Reserve.
For the Titan defensive line, Denico Autry logged in a full practice Wednesday.
Autry has accrued seven sacks in eight games so far.
His pass-rushing ability was missed in Tennessee's 17-10 win over Houston.
Houston's limited pass protection will suffer all the more if Autry plays, and this is especially important because the Titan pass defense is vulnerable against good quarterbacks who can stand upright in the pocket.
But not only is Texan quarterback Davis Mills generally a mess away from home -- his career passer rating is an atrocious 71.8 on the road compared to 95.5 at home -- Mills will struggle behind his offensive line especially as he deals with Autry and a Titan pass rush that feeds off its home crowd.
The Verdict
Tennessee is a steal at -3. With Henry, hopefully Burks and hopefully Simmons and Autry, Tennesse is equipped to blow out Houston.
While Ryan Tannehill is done, his backup quarterback, Malik Willis, is characteristically more of a runner.
Run-first Tennessee is built to dominate a Texan run defense that has been porous throughout the year.
In fact, Houston ranks least in limiting opposing rush yardage.
But neither offense has the firepower especially through the air to help this game go "over" the posted total.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville
Best Bet: Parlay Titans -3 at -113 & Under 35.5 at -110 at +260 odds with BetOnline
The Odds
Houston might seem to be playable at +3 because its recent games have looked competitive.
While the Texans did almost beat Dallas, the Cowboys have been playing sloppily since they dominated Minnesota.
This sloppiness is evident in the number of turnovers they're committing and it might have to do with their eagerness to play the Eagles -- they might have already been looking ahead to that great divisional game.
Likewise, the Texans did go to overtime with the Chiefs, but the Chiefs outgained them by an absurd margin: the Chiefs had 502 yards to Houston's 219.
Again, Houston benefitted from Chief turnovers, which allowed them to remain competitive.
Tennessee is unlike either team -- the Cowboys or the Chiefs -- because the Titans cannot afford to be sloppy.
They will enter this game highly motivated as they need to snap their ongoing losing streak, which has been generated by competition vastly superior to Houston, especially with Jacksonville breathing down their necks in the AFC South race.
Laying only three points at home to Houston seems completely uncalled for.
This spread implies that these teams would be approximately even on a neutral field, and I cannot believe that one-win Houston could be expected to be this competitive against any team, let alone against the potential AFC South champs.
In sum, getting the Titans at -3 is a steal.
Injury Issues on Titans' Offensive Line
Texan backers will want to cite Tennessee's injury-related issues on offense and defense.
But citing the Titan injury report easily becomes disingenuous because the Titans have had multiple players battle through injuries.
One speaks of Tennessee's offensive line being laden with injury problems, for example.
However, before these teams faced off in Week 8, three starting Titan offensive linemen and a Titan backup o-lineman were on the injury report.
Despite the banged-up status of Tennessee's run-blockers, star running back Derrick Henry amassed over 200 rushing yards.
Treylon Burks
On offense, Tennessee might in fact be better off health-wise than it was when it faced the Texans in Week 8.
Wide receiver Treylon Burks, who did not play against the Texans, has returned to practice after a concussion kept him out of his team's last two games.
Burks' presence is significant because he easily leads the Titans in receiving yards per game.
He is a big-play threat who ably achieves contested catches.
His combination of speed, catch radius, size, and athleticism helps explain why has a team co-leading six receptions of 20 yards or more even though he's only played in eight games so far.
On the other side, Houston badly needs cornerback help.
The Texans tried to address this need by drafting Derek Stingley with the third pick in the first round of last year's NFL Draft.
However, Stingley incurred a hamstring injury that landed him on Injured Reserve.
Without him, the Texans remain stuck with no-namers at cornerback who will be vulnerable to Burks' skill set.
Titan Defense's Injuries
Jeffery Simmons' appearance on the Titan injury report is nothing new as he has been playing through an ankle injury for month now.
Simmons was able to play in his team's earlier contest against Houston.
In that game, Simmons achieved a run stuff and a sack.
His run-stopping prowess helped limit Houston leading rusher Dameon Pierce to 2.3 YPC on 15 rush attempts.
Simmons is a monster at defensive tackle whose tackle radius helps him swallow up opposing running backs.
He's all the more primed to repeat his effort this week because Houston's starting running back is on Injured Reserve.
For the Titan defensive line, Denico Autry logged in a full practice Wednesday.
Autry has accrued seven sacks in eight games so far.
His pass-rushing ability was missed in Tennessee's 17-10 win over Houston.
Houston's limited pass protection will suffer all the more if Autry plays, and this is especially important because the Titan pass defense is vulnerable against good quarterbacks who can stand upright in the pocket.
But not only is Texan quarterback Davis Mills generally a mess away from home -- his career passer rating is an atrocious 71.8 on the road compared to 95.5 at home -- Mills will struggle behind his offensive line especially as he deals with Autry and a Titan pass rush that feeds off its home crowd.
The Verdict
Tennessee is a steal at -3. With Henry, hopefully Burks and hopefully Simmons and Autry, Tennesse is equipped to blow out Houston.
While Ryan Tannehill is done, his backup quarterback, Malik Willis, is characteristically more of a runner.
Run-first Tennessee is built to dominate a Texan run defense that has been porous throughout the year.
In fact, Houston ranks least in limiting opposing rush yardage.
But neither offense has the firepower especially through the air to help this game go "over" the posted total.
