Best Bets for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Monday night’s game is the only game that day and the last one of the first playoff round. Pittsburgh finished 10-7 and won the AFC North, for which reason it is the home team on Monday. The Texans were 12-5 but finished second in their division.
Expect both teams to be healthy. Houston high-caliber cornerback Kamari Lassiter hasn’t practiced, but rest on practice days is normal for him to receive before playing on gameday. He has stated that he’ll be ready to play. Steelers running back Jaylen Warren, who ran for 958 yards on 4.5 YPC and accumulated 333 receiving yards, hasn’t practiced but is only dealing with an illness. Hence, health won’t play a role in my betting picks for this game.
Monday Night Odds
Houston’s stronger record doesn’t begin to explain why it is favored. The Texans’ 12-5 record actually obscures how well they are playing right now. Houston enters today’s game on a nine-game winning streak. As part of its win streak, Houston has defeated three playoff teams: Jacksonville, Buffalo, and the Chargers.
Conversely, Pittsburgh has beaten zero playoff teams in its last nine games and has been blown out by the Bengals and Chiefs. It thus made sense for the Texans to open as a three-point favorite. Because it’s a road game, though, and because it’s well-known that Houston is 0-6 in road playoff games, I don’t expect the line to shift.
Monday Night Picks
The best argument for Pittsburgh is the Houston road trend that you’ve probably seen. But C.J. Stroud was the quarterback for only two of those games. One was at Baltimore in his rookie year in 2023 and the other was last year at eventual AFC Champion Kansas City. It is hard to fault him for losing to either of those teams, both of whom were considered Super Bowl contenders at the time. Stroud’s passer rating in the game at Kansas City exceeded his regular season average, but, like in 2023, he was facing a team that had a great defense and was led by an elite quarterback. There’s no reason to think that cold weather is a culprit. After all, Ohio State was Stroud’s college team. On December 7, the Texans won, as 4.5-point underdogs, 20-10 at Kansas City. Stroud can clearly lead his team to victory on the road in cold-weather games. Moreover, he can win in the playoffs. Led by Stroud, the Texans are 2-0 in playoff openers. In those two respective games, the Texans scored 45 and 32 points despite playing defenses that ranked vastly higher than the Steelers do.
Pittsburgh is the team that can’t be counted on to win in the postseason. Under their current head coach, the Steelers are 0-6 in their last six playoff games. They are losing playoff games by a lot of points and giving up a lot of points in them. Last year, they lost 28-14 to Baltimore. The list continues, also including a 48-37 loss to Cleveland in 2020.
Pittsburgh’s offense has a horrible outlook for this game. In 2021, a younger and better version of Aaron Rodgers played for the Packers, who lost 13-10 to a 49ers team whose defensive coordinator was Houston’s current head coach. Rodgers now faces an elite Texans defense that ranks number six against the pass, number four against the run, and number two overall. The Steelers are 0-3 against teams that rank top-seven at limiting opposing passer rating because Rodgers lacks the quality to navigate such strong defenses. His passer rating in those three games were 58, 50.6, and 65.4, respectively. Pittsburgh lost all three of those games by multiple touchdowns. The Steelers rank 26th in total defense, so it’s impossible to like them when you dislike their offense.
This is just the matchup for Houston to continue its dominance in playoff openers. For the above reasons, you should expect a Houston victory by double digits. Wager on Houston -3 at -107 with BetOnline.
Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers under 207 passing yards at -115 with Bovada
Aaron Rodgers has played in seven games against top-ten pass defenses. He exceeded 207 passing yards one time, at home against a Cleveland pass defense that plays radically worse in road games, allowing nearly 70 more pass yards in road games than in home games. Rodgers must be expected to struggle against Houston’s sixth-ranked pass defense, which boasts a superb pass rush and high-caliber defensive backs. Player props for this game should be oriented around the expectation that Pittsburgh’s offense will struggle to be productive. Rodgers is a great player to target in this respect even in a blowout situation in which he’ll throw more passes. He’ll want to throw deep balls for quick scores, but he won’t accumulate any yards when he sits in the pocket, waiting for receivers to get downfield, and gets eaten up by Houston’s eighth-ranked pass rush.
Monday night’s game is the only game that day and the last one of the first playoff round. Pittsburgh finished 10-7 and won the AFC North, for which reason it is the home team on Monday. The Texans were 12-5 but finished second in their division.
Expect both teams to be healthy. Houston high-caliber cornerback Kamari Lassiter hasn’t practiced, but rest on practice days is normal for him to receive before playing on gameday. He has stated that he’ll be ready to play. Steelers running back Jaylen Warren, who ran for 958 yards on 4.5 YPC and accumulated 333 receiving yards, hasn’t practiced but is only dealing with an illness. Hence, health won’t play a role in my betting picks for this game.
Monday Night Odds
Houston’s stronger record doesn’t begin to explain why it is favored. The Texans’ 12-5 record actually obscures how well they are playing right now. Houston enters today’s game on a nine-game winning streak. As part of its win streak, Houston has defeated three playoff teams: Jacksonville, Buffalo, and the Chargers.
Conversely, Pittsburgh has beaten zero playoff teams in its last nine games and has been blown out by the Bengals and Chiefs. It thus made sense for the Texans to open as a three-point favorite. Because it’s a road game, though, and because it’s well-known that Houston is 0-6 in road playoff games, I don’t expect the line to shift.
Monday Night Picks
The best argument for Pittsburgh is the Houston road trend that you’ve probably seen. But C.J. Stroud was the quarterback for only two of those games. One was at Baltimore in his rookie year in 2023 and the other was last year at eventual AFC Champion Kansas City. It is hard to fault him for losing to either of those teams, both of whom were considered Super Bowl contenders at the time. Stroud’s passer rating in the game at Kansas City exceeded his regular season average, but, like in 2023, he was facing a team that had a great defense and was led by an elite quarterback. There’s no reason to think that cold weather is a culprit. After all, Ohio State was Stroud’s college team. On December 7, the Texans won, as 4.5-point underdogs, 20-10 at Kansas City. Stroud can clearly lead his team to victory on the road in cold-weather games. Moreover, he can win in the playoffs. Led by Stroud, the Texans are 2-0 in playoff openers. In those two respective games, the Texans scored 45 and 32 points despite playing defenses that ranked vastly higher than the Steelers do.
Pittsburgh is the team that can’t be counted on to win in the postseason. Under their current head coach, the Steelers are 0-6 in their last six playoff games. They are losing playoff games by a lot of points and giving up a lot of points in them. Last year, they lost 28-14 to Baltimore. The list continues, also including a 48-37 loss to Cleveland in 2020.
Pittsburgh’s offense has a horrible outlook for this game. In 2021, a younger and better version of Aaron Rodgers played for the Packers, who lost 13-10 to a 49ers team whose defensive coordinator was Houston’s current head coach. Rodgers now faces an elite Texans defense that ranks number six against the pass, number four against the run, and number two overall. The Steelers are 0-3 against teams that rank top-seven at limiting opposing passer rating because Rodgers lacks the quality to navigate such strong defenses. His passer rating in those three games were 58, 50.6, and 65.4, respectively. Pittsburgh lost all three of those games by multiple touchdowns. The Steelers rank 26th in total defense, so it’s impossible to like them when you dislike their offense.
This is just the matchup for Houston to continue its dominance in playoff openers. For the above reasons, you should expect a Houston victory by double digits. Wager on Houston -3 at -107 with BetOnline.
Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers under 207 passing yards at -115 with Bovada
Aaron Rodgers has played in seven games against top-ten pass defenses. He exceeded 207 passing yards one time, at home against a Cleveland pass defense that plays radically worse in road games, allowing nearly 70 more pass yards in road games than in home games. Rodgers must be expected to struggle against Houston’s sixth-ranked pass defense, which boasts a superb pass rush and high-caliber defensive backs. Player props for this game should be oriented around the expectation that Pittsburgh’s offense will struggle to be productive. Rodgers is a great player to target in this respect even in a blowout situation in which he’ll throw more passes. He’ll want to throw deep balls for quick scores, but he won’t accumulate any yards when he sits in the pocket, waiting for receivers to get downfield, and gets eaten up by Houston’s eighth-ranked pass rush.
