Saints March To Home Cover Against Houston
Houston at New Orleans
When: Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NFL Pick: Saints ATS
Odds
Oddsmakers opened New Orleans as 7.5-point favorites. Love for the underdog, however, has since dropped the spread to 6.5. I recommend pouncing on the current number before it pops back up to seven.
Houston's Offense Is One-Dimensional
Running back is a position of desperate need for the Texans after Lamar Miller suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Texans acquired Duke Johnson, who's known for his pass-catching abilities, but has never been an every-down back. His backup is the perennially mediocre Carlos Hyde, who has been bounced around from team to team, lately. He averaged fewer than four YPC in both of his past two seasons.
Passing seems to be the recognized point of emphasis as the Texans acquired Kenny Stills and left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil is a positive acquisition, but Houston still has a long way to go to fix its pass protection, which remains a weakness of the team and possibly still represent the weakest unit in the NFL. Last year, the Texans ranked last in both adjusted sack rate and pressure rate. They allowed 62 sacks.
Quality is still hard to find on the offensive line. Nick Martin, who was graded as by far the AFC South's worst center last year, is still starting. Right tackle Seantrel Henderson suffered a low grade in the 11 snaps he played last season, the only professional ones of his career. Depending on the final injury report, the guard positions could be occupied by two rookies.
Tunsil will most often contend with Marcus Davenport, New Orleans' first-round pick last season. Mostly a mere rotational player, he still amassed four sacks in his first six games before injuries kept him from further progress.
Henderson will have his hands full with Cameron Jordan. Last year, he graded as the fifth-best edge defender while ranking top-10 in both pass rush win rate and total pressures. He's comparatively even more effective in these respects when he blitzes.
Even when DeShaun Watson finds sufficient time to find his receivers, he'll have to contend with a Saints secondary that is underrated based on last year's overall numbers. It improved with the acquisition of top cornerback Eli Apple. Marshon Lattimore started to suffer a sophomore slump after being chosen as the NFL's top defensive rookie in 2017. But he improved to finish as the 20th-highest-graded corner and he accrued two interceptions in the NFC Divisional Round.
New Orleans' Offense Finds A Balance
Drew Brees comes off a season where he completed 74.4 percent of his passes for 32 touchdowns and five interceptions. One advantage that he has is good protection. The Saints ranked third in adjusted sack rate.
New Orleans' offensive line did face one question during the offseason, which was to replace center Max Unger. Although it signed accomplished veteran Nick Easton, rookie center Erik McCoy won the job and the ease with which he was determined to be the starter presents an important contrast to the persistent confusion and doubt that plagued Houston's Coach O'Brien as he tried to establish who would start on the offensive line. McCoy dominated first-team reps in practice and is building significant chemistry with Drew Brees.
McCoy and company also face a weakened Houston front seven that will miss Jadeveon Clowney. In other words, Houston's pass rush is taking a much bigger step backwards than any step back that New Orleans' already strong pass protection is taking.
Houston's defense has further taken hits by having to replace cornerback Kareem Jackson and safety Tyrann Mathieu. The Texans' secondary was already a weak spot, having ranked 26th in passing yards allowed per game. It will have much to handle in the form of Pro Bowler Michael Thomas, the efficient pass-catcher and now healthy Ted Ginn Jr., tight end Jared Cook, who's coming off an 896-yard season in Oakland, and running back Alvin Kamara, who caught 81 passes last year and is dangerous in the open field as perhaps the NFL's most elusive running back.
Latavius Murray and Kamara form a thunder-and-lightning combo in New Orleans' backfield. Though different in style, both have an established nose for the end zone based on their respective touchdowns-per-carry rates. Kamara is the more talented of the duo as he regularly ranks among running back leaders in missed tackles forced.
Conclusion
New Orleans will face much less resistance from Houston's weakened pass rush and already poor and now even poorer secondary. On the other side, Houston will struggle to keep pace with its complete lack of running game, behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, and contending with both an underrated secondary and strong pass rush off the edge.
Houston at New Orleans
When: Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NFL Pick: Saints ATS
Odds
Oddsmakers opened New Orleans as 7.5-point favorites. Love for the underdog, however, has since dropped the spread to 6.5. I recommend pouncing on the current number before it pops back up to seven.
Houston's Offense Is One-Dimensional
Running back is a position of desperate need for the Texans after Lamar Miller suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Texans acquired Duke Johnson, who's known for his pass-catching abilities, but has never been an every-down back. His backup is the perennially mediocre Carlos Hyde, who has been bounced around from team to team, lately. He averaged fewer than four YPC in both of his past two seasons.
Passing seems to be the recognized point of emphasis as the Texans acquired Kenny Stills and left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil is a positive acquisition, but Houston still has a long way to go to fix its pass protection, which remains a weakness of the team and possibly still represent the weakest unit in the NFL. Last year, the Texans ranked last in both adjusted sack rate and pressure rate. They allowed 62 sacks.
Quality is still hard to find on the offensive line. Nick Martin, who was graded as by far the AFC South's worst center last year, is still starting. Right tackle Seantrel Henderson suffered a low grade in the 11 snaps he played last season, the only professional ones of his career. Depending on the final injury report, the guard positions could be occupied by two rookies.
Tunsil will most often contend with Marcus Davenport, New Orleans' first-round pick last season. Mostly a mere rotational player, he still amassed four sacks in his first six games before injuries kept him from further progress.
Henderson will have his hands full with Cameron Jordan. Last year, he graded as the fifth-best edge defender while ranking top-10 in both pass rush win rate and total pressures. He's comparatively even more effective in these respects when he blitzes.
Even when DeShaun Watson finds sufficient time to find his receivers, he'll have to contend with a Saints secondary that is underrated based on last year's overall numbers. It improved with the acquisition of top cornerback Eli Apple. Marshon Lattimore started to suffer a sophomore slump after being chosen as the NFL's top defensive rookie in 2017. But he improved to finish as the 20th-highest-graded corner and he accrued two interceptions in the NFC Divisional Round.
New Orleans' Offense Finds A Balance
Drew Brees comes off a season where he completed 74.4 percent of his passes for 32 touchdowns and five interceptions. One advantage that he has is good protection. The Saints ranked third in adjusted sack rate.
New Orleans' offensive line did face one question during the offseason, which was to replace center Max Unger. Although it signed accomplished veteran Nick Easton, rookie center Erik McCoy won the job and the ease with which he was determined to be the starter presents an important contrast to the persistent confusion and doubt that plagued Houston's Coach O'Brien as he tried to establish who would start on the offensive line. McCoy dominated first-team reps in practice and is building significant chemistry with Drew Brees.
McCoy and company also face a weakened Houston front seven that will miss Jadeveon Clowney. In other words, Houston's pass rush is taking a much bigger step backwards than any step back that New Orleans' already strong pass protection is taking.
Houston's defense has further taken hits by having to replace cornerback Kareem Jackson and safety Tyrann Mathieu. The Texans' secondary was already a weak spot, having ranked 26th in passing yards allowed per game. It will have much to handle in the form of Pro Bowler Michael Thomas, the efficient pass-catcher and now healthy Ted Ginn Jr., tight end Jared Cook, who's coming off an 896-yard season in Oakland, and running back Alvin Kamara, who caught 81 passes last year and is dangerous in the open field as perhaps the NFL's most elusive running back.
Latavius Murray and Kamara form a thunder-and-lightning combo in New Orleans' backfield. Though different in style, both have an established nose for the end zone based on their respective touchdowns-per-carry rates. Kamara is the more talented of the duo as he regularly ranks among running back leaders in missed tackles forced.
Conclusion
New Orleans will face much less resistance from Houston's weakened pass rush and already poor and now even poorer secondary. On the other side, Houston will struggle to keep pace with its complete lack of running game, behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, and contending with both an underrated secondary and strong pass rush off the edge.
