Texans vs. Ravens Divisional Round Game Odds & Picks: Baltimore Deserves To Be Favored Heavily
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 20, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Addressing The Cleveland Blowout
One reason why bettors will want to invest in the Texans is that they just blew out Cleveland.
Their reasoning will be that Cleveland has a highly-ranked pass defense. They will claim that if Texans quarterback CJ Stroud can thrive against a team like Cleveland, then he should be trusted to perform well against Baltimore's likewise highly-ranked pass defense.
But we have to revise the strong impression of Stroud that his performance against Cleveland has given us.
While Stroud certainly did perform well, he benefited entirely from playing the game in Houston.
All year long, Cleveland has had a massive problem in road games.
Whereas they allow the fewest points per game at home, suggesting that they are an elite defense, they give up the most points per game on the road, indicating that they are anything but an elite defense on the road.
This non-elite version of the Browns is what Stroud got to face last weel.
Baltimore's Pass Defense
Unlike Cleveland in road games, Baltimore owns an elite pass defense.
The Ravens rank fifth at limiting opposing pass yards, second in sack rate, number one at limiting the opponent's passer rating. And so on.
Over the offseason, Baltimore added depth in its secondary to keep it from depending on its top cornerback Marlon Humphrey.
Kyle Hamilton has also proven to be one of the most valuable safeties in the NFL with his range and route recognition.
It is also hard to pass against Baltimore given the changes that it makes post-snap to confuse the opposing quarterback and to aid its pass-rushing endeavors.
CJ Stroud vs. Elite Pass Defenses
I dislike Stroud in this game because he reliably struggles against top pass defenses.
In the regular season, he faced five top-ten pass defenses.
He achieved no better than a 88.9 passer rating in those five games – whereas his passer rating on the season is 11.9 points higher – and the now injured Tank Dell was his second-leading receiver when he managed an 88.9 passer rating.
Moreover, he never reached 250 passing yards in those five games.
On other side, he failed to reach 200 passing yards in three of those games.
His team reached 20 points once – at home to New Orleans – and failed to reach ten points twice.
Of those five games, four took place on the road, and he lost all four road games: in Baltimore, in Atlanta, in Carolina, and at the Jets.
Stroud would much rather play at home in the comfort of Houston's dome.
He has not had to suffer through weather-related elements this year – even some of his road games took place in a dome.
Baltimore's windy, 20-degree weather on Saturday will pose a unique challenge for him, although the Ravens' elite pass defense will already be tough enough.
Revisiting The Rematch
While Houston's offensive pieces have developed since the Texans' Week 1 loss in Baltimore, especially the blowout loss in Week 14 at the Jets shows that Houston's offense remains unreliable against top pass defenses.
Conversely, Baltimore's offense has developed since Week 1.
While Houston's ability to limit the Ravens' yardage might seem impressive, it is imperative to remember that Week 1 was the first game for Baltimore's offense under a new system, Todd Monken's.
Keeping this in mind makes sense of how the Texans, in Week 2, went to face another scrambling quarterback, one who is not on Lamar Jackson's level, and struggled mightily.
In Week 2, Anthony Richardson led the Colts to two quick touchdowns – he ran it in for both of them – against Houston before he got injured.
Lamar Jackson and Company
Whereas Jackson's passer rating was 95.5 back in September, it is 114.5 now.
Likewise, his YPC was 6.0 in September, and it is 6.9 now.
An MVP candidate, he is playing his best football.
He will thrive on the ground, as Richardson did.
Aided by the ascendant Odell Beckham Jr., which gives Baltimore wide-receiver depth, Jackson will continue thriving in the air.
Tight end Isaiah Likely, a dangerous deep-play threat who needed to grow comfortable in the starting role because Jackson loves tight ends, will also be valuable against a Houston defense that allows the most yards to tight ends.
As evident in its near loss in Indianapolis in Week 18, Houston is more vulnerable to opposing running backs on the road, so Baltimore will be able to run effectively by relying on its running backs, in addition to relying on Jackson.
A big play by Josh Downs in that Colts game and many other instances have displayed Houston's difficulty with tackling in general.
Best Bet: Ravens -9.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 20, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Addressing The Cleveland Blowout
One reason why bettors will want to invest in the Texans is that they just blew out Cleveland.
Their reasoning will be that Cleveland has a highly-ranked pass defense. They will claim that if Texans quarterback CJ Stroud can thrive against a team like Cleveland, then he should be trusted to perform well against Baltimore's likewise highly-ranked pass defense.
But we have to revise the strong impression of Stroud that his performance against Cleveland has given us.
While Stroud certainly did perform well, he benefited entirely from playing the game in Houston.
All year long, Cleveland has had a massive problem in road games.
Whereas they allow the fewest points per game at home, suggesting that they are an elite defense, they give up the most points per game on the road, indicating that they are anything but an elite defense on the road.
This non-elite version of the Browns is what Stroud got to face last weel.
Baltimore's Pass Defense
Unlike Cleveland in road games, Baltimore owns an elite pass defense.
The Ravens rank fifth at limiting opposing pass yards, second in sack rate, number one at limiting the opponent's passer rating. And so on.
Over the offseason, Baltimore added depth in its secondary to keep it from depending on its top cornerback Marlon Humphrey.
Kyle Hamilton has also proven to be one of the most valuable safeties in the NFL with his range and route recognition.
It is also hard to pass against Baltimore given the changes that it makes post-snap to confuse the opposing quarterback and to aid its pass-rushing endeavors.
CJ Stroud vs. Elite Pass Defenses
I dislike Stroud in this game because he reliably struggles against top pass defenses.
In the regular season, he faced five top-ten pass defenses.
He achieved no better than a 88.9 passer rating in those five games – whereas his passer rating on the season is 11.9 points higher – and the now injured Tank Dell was his second-leading receiver when he managed an 88.9 passer rating.
Moreover, he never reached 250 passing yards in those five games.
On other side, he failed to reach 200 passing yards in three of those games.
His team reached 20 points once – at home to New Orleans – and failed to reach ten points twice.
Of those five games, four took place on the road, and he lost all four road games: in Baltimore, in Atlanta, in Carolina, and at the Jets.
Stroud would much rather play at home in the comfort of Houston's dome.
He has not had to suffer through weather-related elements this year – even some of his road games took place in a dome.
Baltimore's windy, 20-degree weather on Saturday will pose a unique challenge for him, although the Ravens' elite pass defense will already be tough enough.
Revisiting The Rematch
While Houston's offensive pieces have developed since the Texans' Week 1 loss in Baltimore, especially the blowout loss in Week 14 at the Jets shows that Houston's offense remains unreliable against top pass defenses.
Conversely, Baltimore's offense has developed since Week 1.
While Houston's ability to limit the Ravens' yardage might seem impressive, it is imperative to remember that Week 1 was the first game for Baltimore's offense under a new system, Todd Monken's.
Keeping this in mind makes sense of how the Texans, in Week 2, went to face another scrambling quarterback, one who is not on Lamar Jackson's level, and struggled mightily.
In Week 2, Anthony Richardson led the Colts to two quick touchdowns – he ran it in for both of them – against Houston before he got injured.
Lamar Jackson and Company
Whereas Jackson's passer rating was 95.5 back in September, it is 114.5 now.
Likewise, his YPC was 6.0 in September, and it is 6.9 now.
An MVP candidate, he is playing his best football.
He will thrive on the ground, as Richardson did.
Aided by the ascendant Odell Beckham Jr., which gives Baltimore wide-receiver depth, Jackson will continue thriving in the air.
Tight end Isaiah Likely, a dangerous deep-play threat who needed to grow comfortable in the starting role because Jackson loves tight ends, will also be valuable against a Houston defense that allows the most yards to tight ends.
As evident in its near loss in Indianapolis in Week 18, Houston is more vulnerable to opposing running backs on the road, so Baltimore will be able to run effectively by relying on its running backs, in addition to relying on Jackson.
A big play by Josh Downs in that Colts game and many other instances have displayed Houston's difficulty with tackling in general.
Best Bet: Ravens -9.5 at -110 with BetOnline
