Colts vs. Texans NFL Week 18 Best Bets: Colts to Stampede Hapless Texans
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
Best Bet: Colts -3 at +100 with BetOnline
Number One Pick
This is the last game of the regular season.
It is a game that, ostensibly, means nothing to either team in the sense that both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Texans still have less incentive than Indianapolis to win, because the number one pick is still up for grabs.
If the Texans were to beat Indianapolis, then they might cost themselves the top pick.
They would need the Bears to lose, but they won't know if the Bears will lose because both teams will play at the same time as each other.
Perhaps Houston had the top draft pick in mind when it fell flat against a Jaguar team that it had enjoyed the upper hand against in their series history.
Lovie Smith
Even if Houston weren't in line for the top pick, the Texans are led by a head coach who is terrible in season finales, especially on the road.
Consider the 2004-2012 Bears and the 2014-2015 Buccaneers, both of which were coached by Houston's current head coach Lovie Smith.
The Bears were blown out in 2004 in Minnesota. They lost in 2008 in Houston by seven, and in 2010 they lost in Green Bay by seven.
They did win a few games. In 2009, they won in Detroit, beating a 2-14 Lion team by two touchdowns.
In 2011, an 8-8 Bear team won in Minnesota by four despite being outgained by almost 100 yards. The Vikings were 3-13.
In 2012, the Bears were 10-6 and won in Detroit by two. The Lions were 4-12.
In 2015, the Bucs lost by 28 in Carolina.
The upshot of the above information is that better Lovie Smith teams underperform in regular season finales on the road and that, in general, his teams play worse than usual and struggle to compete in regular season finales on the road.
Especially with Houston having nothing positive to play for, one can expect Lovie to prepare his team poorly.
Houston's Run Defense
Viewed strictly according to the matchup, Houston's defensive outlook is negative.
The Texan run defense has been uniquely porous throughout the season.
Currently, Houston allows more than 10 rushing yards per game than any other team.
The Texans rank dead-last in rush defense.
Colt Rush Attack
Indianapolis' rush attack is led by running back Zack Moss, who ran for 74 yards on 4.9 YPC last week against the Giants after achieving 5.4 YPC the week before against the Chargers.
Because they played winning teams with stronger offenses, the Colts fell behind in their most recent games and were not able to run the ball consistently.
Will they likewise fall behind against Houston?
Houston's Offensive Outlook
As measured by yards per game, the Texans have the NFL's worst offense.
Quarterback Davis Mills is in particular a liability.
Now, he's been awful in general. His passer rating this season is 78.
But he's been most awful recently and, in his career, he's been at his worst on the road.
His passer rating was 69 last week against the Jaguars and 76.2 the week before in Tennessee.
The last statistic is particularly telling because the Titans own the NFL's last-ranked pass defense.
Especially on the road, where his career passer rating is about 20 points lower than it is at home, Mills cannot encounter an NFL defense against which he might enjoy a decent game.
Of course, this is not all Mills' fault.
He misses his starting running back and his second-best wide receiver to injury, and his pass protection is poor.
But the metrics also show his relatively terrible accuracy.
The Verdict
Colt quarterback Sam Ehlinger can do some running of his own, but he will mostly focus on being efficient and supporting his team's rush attack.
Given Ehlinger's conservativeness -- he averages just 5.8 YPA -- Indianapolis' reliance on running the ball, and Houston's offensive misery, we should expect a low-scoring game.
For the above reasons, I expect something like a 16-6 Colt victory.
You should thus invest in the "under" in addition to the Colts ATS.
Best Bet: Under 38 at -108 with Heritage
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
Best Bet: Colts -3 at +100 with BetOnline
Number One Pick
This is the last game of the regular season.
It is a game that, ostensibly, means nothing to either team in the sense that both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Texans still have less incentive than Indianapolis to win, because the number one pick is still up for grabs.
If the Texans were to beat Indianapolis, then they might cost themselves the top pick.
They would need the Bears to lose, but they won't know if the Bears will lose because both teams will play at the same time as each other.
Perhaps Houston had the top draft pick in mind when it fell flat against a Jaguar team that it had enjoyed the upper hand against in their series history.
Lovie Smith
Even if Houston weren't in line for the top pick, the Texans are led by a head coach who is terrible in season finales, especially on the road.
Consider the 2004-2012 Bears and the 2014-2015 Buccaneers, both of which were coached by Houston's current head coach Lovie Smith.
The Bears were blown out in 2004 in Minnesota. They lost in 2008 in Houston by seven, and in 2010 they lost in Green Bay by seven.
They did win a few games. In 2009, they won in Detroit, beating a 2-14 Lion team by two touchdowns.
In 2011, an 8-8 Bear team won in Minnesota by four despite being outgained by almost 100 yards. The Vikings were 3-13.
In 2012, the Bears were 10-6 and won in Detroit by two. The Lions were 4-12.
In 2015, the Bucs lost by 28 in Carolina.
The upshot of the above information is that better Lovie Smith teams underperform in regular season finales on the road and that, in general, his teams play worse than usual and struggle to compete in regular season finales on the road.
Especially with Houston having nothing positive to play for, one can expect Lovie to prepare his team poorly.
Houston's Run Defense
Viewed strictly according to the matchup, Houston's defensive outlook is negative.
The Texan run defense has been uniquely porous throughout the season.
Currently, Houston allows more than 10 rushing yards per game than any other team.
The Texans rank dead-last in rush defense.
Colt Rush Attack
Indianapolis' rush attack is led by running back Zack Moss, who ran for 74 yards on 4.9 YPC last week against the Giants after achieving 5.4 YPC the week before against the Chargers.
Because they played winning teams with stronger offenses, the Colts fell behind in their most recent games and were not able to run the ball consistently.
Will they likewise fall behind against Houston?
Houston's Offensive Outlook
As measured by yards per game, the Texans have the NFL's worst offense.
Quarterback Davis Mills is in particular a liability.
Now, he's been awful in general. His passer rating this season is 78.
But he's been most awful recently and, in his career, he's been at his worst on the road.
His passer rating was 69 last week against the Jaguars and 76.2 the week before in Tennessee.
The last statistic is particularly telling because the Titans own the NFL's last-ranked pass defense.
Especially on the road, where his career passer rating is about 20 points lower than it is at home, Mills cannot encounter an NFL defense against which he might enjoy a decent game.
Of course, this is not all Mills' fault.
He misses his starting running back and his second-best wide receiver to injury, and his pass protection is poor.
But the metrics also show his relatively terrible accuracy.
The Verdict
Colt quarterback Sam Ehlinger can do some running of his own, but he will mostly focus on being efficient and supporting his team's rush attack.
Given Ehlinger's conservativeness -- he averages just 5.8 YPA -- Indianapolis' reliance on running the ball, and Houston's offensive misery, we should expect a low-scoring game.
For the above reasons, I expect something like a 16-6 Colt victory.
You should thus invest in the "under" in addition to the Colts ATS.
Best Bet: Under 38 at -108 with Heritage
