JumpOnBoard
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Pats -9.5/48.5
Texans @ Pats Discussion....
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detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Cant see myself touching Houston, only Dalton piss poor throw to AJ let them off that hook. Their offense looks like a disaster, no confidence, not producing in the red zone, trading fgs for tds could be disastrous to say the least
Arians avatar on twitter...
lmao
League has little to no film of the patriots full offense this season. Hernandez hurt in week 2, when he got back he was never a full on factor until after gronk hurt his arm too. Those 2 guys were originally part of the base offense going into the year, bill with 2 weeks and with nobody totally knowing what to expect with all those guys on the field is an enormous advantage. Not to mention a dome team playing a night game at Gillette. Just thoughts, not like there's great value at 9.5.
G
Gyno
Guest
Texans have scored 2 TDs in last 14 QTRS.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
like san fran even more nba
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
From Rotoworld
Sunday's 4:30PM ET Game
Houston @ New England
Three of this year's Divisional Round games are regular-season rematches. The Pats' Week 14, 42-14 evisceration of the Texans might be most difficult to forget. While the result isn't necessarily indicative of things to come, it seems to have had a lasting effect on the mindset and subsequent performance of Matt Schaub. Whereas Schaub opened the season with a 7.41 yards-per-attempt average and 21:9 TD-to-INT ratio in 12 games before the New England loss, he’s regressed to one touchdown, four interceptions, and a 7.15 YPA in five games since. Schaub has been tentative and hesitant, struggling each time out. A light must suddenly flip on for Schaub if Houston is going to stay competitive on the scoreboard in Foxboro. His recent play suggests the odds are stacked heavily against it. ... The Patriots' defensive coverage strategy appears pretty predictable for this game. They'll shadow Aqib Talib with Andre Johnson while impressive rookie corner Alfonzo Dennard matches up with the Z receiver rotation of Kevin Walter and DeVier Posey. During his funk, Schaub has been all too willing to settle for checkdown-type completions to Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, Garrett Graham, and James Casey. New England figures to be willing to surrender those so long as Johnson doesn't get behind the secondary. The Texans simply don't have enough explosive weapons to keep pace with the Patriots' juggernaut offense unless Houston's defense plays its best game all year and Foster absolutely goes off on the ground.
Bill Belichick has a famous knack for eliminating his opponent's most potent skill-position player, and his defense executed when New England held Foster to 46 yards on 15 runs (3.07 YPC) in Week 14. The Pats played top-nine regular-season run defense, permitting under 4.0 yards per carry, so clogging lanes and setting the edge comes natural to Belichick's group. Even better for the Patriots' chances of limiting Foster's impact would be grabbing an early lead and putting the game in overwhelmed Schaub's hands. ... Run-based and theoretically defensive-minded, the Texans are a rhythm team whose effectiveness is compromised when its rhythm is thwarted. The Pats can pound its enemy into submission with a power-zone run game, spread out defenses and attack college-style, or run the speed-no-huddle, limiting substitutions and tiring out an opponent. There isn't an offense in the league better equipped to throw an adversary off its game and take away its rhythm. From that perspective, this game is a mismatch heavily favoring the Patriots.
The Pats dismantled the Texans in the Week 14 game, and they did it without Rob Gronkowski. Not only is Gronkowski an unstoppable red-zone receiver, his run blocking reached new heights when healthy in 2012. To say Gronk's presence is worth seven points per game would probably be conservative. He's going to be an every-down player in the Divisional Round, and that's great news for Tom Brady and Stevan Ridley. It should worry the heck out of Houston. ... As alluded to in last week's Wild Card Matchups piece, the Texans' most glaring defensive weakness is inside linebacker play. The Bengals made a fruitless attempt to attack coverage-liability ILBs Barrett Ruud and Bradie James by targeting Jermaine Gresham on seven pass plays. Gresham, vastly inferior to Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, generated a pathetic seven yards on those seven targets, dropping three balls. The Pats likely took note of the Bengals' mishaps in their game-plan preparation, and where they occurred on the field. Hernandez, Gronkowski, and slot receiver Wes Welker can make good on the opportunities Gresham and Andy Dalton missed. ... Brady shredded Houston for four touchdowns, no picks, and 296 yards on 35 throws (8.46 YPA) in the aforementioned Week 14 beatdown. Texans slot cornerback Brandon Harris was Brady's primary whipping boy.
Although LE J.J. Watt came away from the Texans-Patriots regular-season game with four tackles, three QB hits, and a forced fumble, the Pats held Watt sack-less and generally neutralized him with double and triple teams. In the meantime, the Texans have failed to find a pass rusher capable of distracting extra attention from Watt. He's been their lone consistently high-impact defender all season long, and New England has displayed an ability to stategize so that Watt doesn't ruin their offense. ... Houston defends inside runners like Stevan Ridley more effectively than backs who get out in space, but Ridley has proven a reliable chain-mover and is sure to have some impact on Sunday's game, even if he doesn't break off any long runs. Ridley may not be the centerpiece of playcaller Josh McDaniels' Divisional Round game plan, but he'll be called on to generate three yards and a cloud of dust and execute in short-yardage and goal-line situations. ... Brandon Lloyd might be the likeliest Patriots pass catcher to draw single coverage against Houston, squaring off with CB Johnathan Joseph on the outside. Quiet for most of the season, Lloyd came on a bit down the stretch and at the very least will occupy the Texans' best cornerback's coverage. Houston's defense is more vulnerable underneath and down the seam.
Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Texans 17
Sunday's 4:30PM ET Game
Houston @ New England
Three of this year's Divisional Round games are regular-season rematches. The Pats' Week 14, 42-14 evisceration of the Texans might be most difficult to forget. While the result isn't necessarily indicative of things to come, it seems to have had a lasting effect on the mindset and subsequent performance of Matt Schaub. Whereas Schaub opened the season with a 7.41 yards-per-attempt average and 21:9 TD-to-INT ratio in 12 games before the New England loss, he’s regressed to one touchdown, four interceptions, and a 7.15 YPA in five games since. Schaub has been tentative and hesitant, struggling each time out. A light must suddenly flip on for Schaub if Houston is going to stay competitive on the scoreboard in Foxboro. His recent play suggests the odds are stacked heavily against it. ... The Patriots' defensive coverage strategy appears pretty predictable for this game. They'll shadow Aqib Talib with Andre Johnson while impressive rookie corner Alfonzo Dennard matches up with the Z receiver rotation of Kevin Walter and DeVier Posey. During his funk, Schaub has been all too willing to settle for checkdown-type completions to Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, Garrett Graham, and James Casey. New England figures to be willing to surrender those so long as Johnson doesn't get behind the secondary. The Texans simply don't have enough explosive weapons to keep pace with the Patriots' juggernaut offense unless Houston's defense plays its best game all year and Foster absolutely goes off on the ground.
Bill Belichick has a famous knack for eliminating his opponent's most potent skill-position player, and his defense executed when New England held Foster to 46 yards on 15 runs (3.07 YPC) in Week 14. The Pats played top-nine regular-season run defense, permitting under 4.0 yards per carry, so clogging lanes and setting the edge comes natural to Belichick's group. Even better for the Patriots' chances of limiting Foster's impact would be grabbing an early lead and putting the game in overwhelmed Schaub's hands. ... Run-based and theoretically defensive-minded, the Texans are a rhythm team whose effectiveness is compromised when its rhythm is thwarted. The Pats can pound its enemy into submission with a power-zone run game, spread out defenses and attack college-style, or run the speed-no-huddle, limiting substitutions and tiring out an opponent. There isn't an offense in the league better equipped to throw an adversary off its game and take away its rhythm. From that perspective, this game is a mismatch heavily favoring the Patriots.
The Pats dismantled the Texans in the Week 14 game, and they did it without Rob Gronkowski. Not only is Gronkowski an unstoppable red-zone receiver, his run blocking reached new heights when healthy in 2012. To say Gronk's presence is worth seven points per game would probably be conservative. He's going to be an every-down player in the Divisional Round, and that's great news for Tom Brady and Stevan Ridley. It should worry the heck out of Houston. ... As alluded to in last week's Wild Card Matchups piece, the Texans' most glaring defensive weakness is inside linebacker play. The Bengals made a fruitless attempt to attack coverage-liability ILBs Barrett Ruud and Bradie James by targeting Jermaine Gresham on seven pass plays. Gresham, vastly inferior to Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, generated a pathetic seven yards on those seven targets, dropping three balls. The Pats likely took note of the Bengals' mishaps in their game-plan preparation, and where they occurred on the field. Hernandez, Gronkowski, and slot receiver Wes Welker can make good on the opportunities Gresham and Andy Dalton missed. ... Brady shredded Houston for four touchdowns, no picks, and 296 yards on 35 throws (8.46 YPA) in the aforementioned Week 14 beatdown. Texans slot cornerback Brandon Harris was Brady's primary whipping boy.
Although LE J.J. Watt came away from the Texans-Patriots regular-season game with four tackles, three QB hits, and a forced fumble, the Pats held Watt sack-less and generally neutralized him with double and triple teams. In the meantime, the Texans have failed to find a pass rusher capable of distracting extra attention from Watt. He's been their lone consistently high-impact defender all season long, and New England has displayed an ability to stategize so that Watt doesn't ruin their offense. ... Houston defends inside runners like Stevan Ridley more effectively than backs who get out in space, but Ridley has proven a reliable chain-mover and is sure to have some impact on Sunday's game, even if he doesn't break off any long runs. Ridley may not be the centerpiece of playcaller Josh McDaniels' Divisional Round game plan, but he'll be called on to generate three yards and a cloud of dust and execute in short-yardage and goal-line situations. ... Brandon Lloyd might be the likeliest Patriots pass catcher to draw single coverage against Houston, squaring off with CB Johnathan Joseph on the outside. Quiet for most of the season, Lloyd came on a bit down the stretch and at the very least will occupy the Texans' best cornerback's coverage. Houston's defense is more vulnerable underneath and down the seam.
Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Texans 17
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W
wadegarrett
Guest
hoping JJ Watt has a monster fucking game, is unblockable.. thats the only shot I believe hou has.. cuz we all know tommy cant handle a defender laying a hand on him.. and feed fucking foster, 30 plus carries..
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
live in Houston and I just dont see them winning this game.
Texans' D cannot stop Brady from getting his points. The first game btw these two and the 2H Brady had against a much better SF D are just examples of what Brady/Belli combo will make sure gets done with their scoring
Theoretically, a strong performance out of JJ Swat combined with a 125 yd day from Foster could give Texans a chance IF you think Schaub can get it done under playoff pressure on the road in a 4th qtr dual with Brady. Nope.
That being said, 9.5 is a lot to lay. I know 'wise guys' are supposedly waiting for the +10. I cannot pull the trigger on Texans even with that number (it would be tempting).
I am 'passing' on the teams in this game but really like the OVER 47 and took it yesterday. Line has moved to 48.5 I see so somebody agrees.
We here in Houston have a long and sad history of playoff losses east of Mississippi. History will repeat itself.
Texans' D cannot stop Brady from getting his points. The first game btw these two and the 2H Brady had against a much better SF D are just examples of what Brady/Belli combo will make sure gets done with their scoring
Theoretically, a strong performance out of JJ Swat combined with a 125 yd day from Foster could give Texans a chance IF you think Schaub can get it done under playoff pressure on the road in a 4th qtr dual with Brady. Nope.
That being said, 9.5 is a lot to lay. I know 'wise guys' are supposedly waiting for the +10. I cannot pull the trigger on Texans even with that number (it would be tempting).
I am 'passing' on the teams in this game but really like the OVER 47 and took it yesterday. Line has moved to 48.5 I see so somebody agrees.
We here in Houston have a long and sad history of playoff losses east of Mississippi. History will repeat itself.
Retburj13
SpongeBob Squarecapper
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
Spam
NFL: Houston +10 (Pinnacle)
After week 18, favorites of 7 points or more are 0-11 ATS if their opponent allows less than 123 rushing yards per game and if that opponent allowed less than 244 passing yards in its last game. And if the opponent allows more than 200 passing yards per game on the season, the favorite lost last last 10 straight up and ATS. In the playoffs, teams winning more than .550, revenging a same season, road SU/ATS loss, are 15-0 ATS if that loss ended at least a 2 game winning streak.
NFL: Houston +10 (Pinnacle)
After week 18, favorites of 7 points or more are 0-11 ATS if their opponent allows less than 123 rushing yards per game and if that opponent allowed less than 244 passing yards in its last game. And if the opponent allows more than 200 passing yards per game on the season, the favorite lost last last 10 straight up and ATS. In the playoffs, teams winning more than .550, revenging a same season, road SU/ATS loss, are 15-0 ATS if that loss ended at least a 2 game winning streak.
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