In post #5's outlining of Halep's potential opponents leading into the final, the one I perceived to be her biggest potential threat is the one she faces in tonight's QF. Looking at the odds, I see Kuznetsova is +1100 to win it all. To me, that's crazy, but undoubtedly those odds are inflated due to Maria & Simone's odds clearly being above & beyond the rest of the field's, and Kuzzy would have to - all things being equal - go through both to claim the title, hence her current price. Some stats:
Kuzzy is
6-1 HtH vs. Errani (the likely semi-final opponent for the winner of this QF), is
4-6 HtH vs. Sharapova, and is
1-0 vs. Bouchard (on clay in 2014: 6-4 6-1).
- I've already stated my belief that Errani isn't psychologically positioned to make the final here, and has only made it thus far for a kind draw (& Jankovic beating herself again: seriously, served twice for the 1st set at 5-4 & 6-5 and failed both times, and that was after coming back from 1-4 down. No wonder her game left her in the 2nd set, she just lost it emotionally. She has to get rid of her brother on the sidelines. He's a toxic presence for her ability to get her game to the next level).
- Kuzzy and Sharapova have never met on clay, and there's no doubt in my mind that should they meet in the final Kuzzy would be a fair chance of winning. Shitpova's serve can disappear at a moments notice, cue her 1st set vs. future Slam winner Muguruza.
- Bouchard would be facing the absolutely wrong kind of opponent in Kuznetsova, in hoping to win in her first ever Slam final appearance. She'd have a much better chance against either Halep or Errani (thou the latter has made a FO final herself, she's a defensive pusher, my hated brickwaller type player. Bouchard on song could eat her alive, thou her only loss to Errani has come on clay).
Kuzzy is in her 7th FO QF in 12 appearances, this vs. 8 QF in 34 appearances in all the other Slams combined (3 previous FO semis in 11 attempts vs. 2 semi spots in 34 other Slam attempts combined). She's won the FO before (beating Radwanska, Serena & Stosur in consecutive rounds on the way to doing so), as well as losing one to henin in her prime (henin was in the midst of winning 4 FO in 5 years, something nadal has done no better than) - it's her favourite Slam surface.
Halep is playing in only her 2nd Slam QF (& her 2nd in a row), but I see the key to her improvement is that -
From January 2014, Simona Halep is coached by Wim Fissette, former coach of Kim Clijsters and Sabine Lisicki.
[SUP]
Even if I didn't have the Halep future, I'd be putting something on this bet. I don't have much doubt whoever wins this match will stride past Errani. Rome is going to catch up with the latter sooner rather than later, but I doubt Petkovik has enough to her to be the one to bring its inertia to bear on her.
Kuznetsova (+1100) (to win the same as my Halep future)[/SUP]
