bad gambler
Pretty much a regular
Well yesterday was not a good start with Grosjean rolling over after leading 3-1 in the final set then losing 5 games on the bounce. Anyway that's tennis for you, got to take the good with the bad. Let's see if we can get back on track with the one play I love today...
ATP Cincy
Djokovic to beat Nieminen - (-110) (3.75 units)
Hard to get a read of Djokovic's game on the hardcourts for obvious reasons in that he hasn't played on it since earlier this year opting to play the clay tournaments in Europe. Also something that doesn't help my cause in capping this one is that Djokovic has not been around long enough to establish any kind of trends especially in the US hardcourt series. So going to stick to the facts today and more provide some observations of both players.
Nieminen has already proven himself on the surface with a QF appearance in US open last year and also making the QF last week in Toronto. I liken him to a Hewitt where he uses the pace of the hardcourts to help his counter punching style of play. He is Mr consistent only losing once in Rd 1 in the 8 tournaments he has played on the surface.
However one disturbing thing I saw was a complete breakdown of his serve last week firstly against Sanguinetti where he had to save 3 mp's before getting through and then quite possibly his worst performance I have seen him play in a long time, his match against Murray where his serve especially the 2nd serve got completely destroyed. Towards the end of that match he just lost all confidence and Murray overcame his own serving woes and took advantage.
Djokovic is coming back from both respiratory problems and a shoulder injury which he played through in Umag. He skipped Toronto on the basis that he was physically spent and have read he has spent the last week in Cincy preparing instead. A quote from his father that was kindly translated by one of the forumites on my tennis board explaining the reasoning for his withdrawl in Toronto:
Cincy courts are undoubtedly playing quicker than Toronto and are probably the quickest of all US HC's in the series and this should suit Djokovic to a tee. I watched the Baghdatis-Tojo match and they were playing ping pong out there - there was 32 aces in a 2 set match. Djoko's serve is fast becoming very dangerous with plenty of variation, he can not only hit a sweet swinging serve on both the adv and deuce courts, he also has a superb kick serve, which he was using predominately in Umag towards the later stages of the tournament to compensate for this shoulder injury and this type of serve has been proven to be very hard to deal with on the US hardcourts. His ability to hit the fh and bh from anywhere from the court will ensure that he can kill off points quickly on a quick surface like this one. IMO apart from Nadal he IS the most talented U21 year old in the world by a fair distance on the basis he already possesses an all round game on ALL surfaces with his only real weakness being fitness - but on a best of 3 set scenario this shouldn't be a problem. Last year in the USO he came from qualification and beat off Monfils and Ancic so the potential is definitely there.
Got to love this matchup - a naturally attacking player against one of the better counter punchers in the world. From what I have read I'm confident Djoko is 100% fit and simply see him having too many chances on Nieminen's serve based on what I saw last week to be able to punish Jarkko. Djoko's deep ground strokes with pace will also cut down the angles for which Nieminen usually thrives on hence I can't see him hurting from the back of the court.
Lets get the cash this time around.
good luck :shake:
ATP Cincy
Djokovic to beat Nieminen - (-110) (3.75 units)
Hard to get a read of Djokovic's game on the hardcourts for obvious reasons in that he hasn't played on it since earlier this year opting to play the clay tournaments in Europe. Also something that doesn't help my cause in capping this one is that Djokovic has not been around long enough to establish any kind of trends especially in the US hardcourt series. So going to stick to the facts today and more provide some observations of both players.
Nieminen has already proven himself on the surface with a QF appearance in US open last year and also making the QF last week in Toronto. I liken him to a Hewitt where he uses the pace of the hardcourts to help his counter punching style of play. He is Mr consistent only losing once in Rd 1 in the 8 tournaments he has played on the surface.
However one disturbing thing I saw was a complete breakdown of his serve last week firstly against Sanguinetti where he had to save 3 mp's before getting through and then quite possibly his worst performance I have seen him play in a long time, his match against Murray where his serve especially the 2nd serve got completely destroyed. Towards the end of that match he just lost all confidence and Murray overcame his own serving woes and took advantage.
Djokovic is coming back from both respiratory problems and a shoulder injury which he played through in Umag. He skipped Toronto on the basis that he was physically spent and have read he has spent the last week in Cincy preparing instead. A quote from his father that was kindly translated by one of the forumites on my tennis board explaining the reasoning for his withdrawl in Toronto:
Cincy courts are undoubtedly playing quicker than Toronto and are probably the quickest of all US HC's in the series and this should suit Djokovic to a tee. I watched the Baghdatis-Tojo match and they were playing ping pong out there - there was 32 aces in a 2 set match. Djoko's serve is fast becoming very dangerous with plenty of variation, he can not only hit a sweet swinging serve on both the adv and deuce courts, he also has a superb kick serve, which he was using predominately in Umag towards the later stages of the tournament to compensate for this shoulder injury and this type of serve has been proven to be very hard to deal with on the US hardcourts. His ability to hit the fh and bh from anywhere from the court will ensure that he can kill off points quickly on a quick surface like this one. IMO apart from Nadal he IS the most talented U21 year old in the world by a fair distance on the basis he already possesses an all round game on ALL surfaces with his only real weakness being fitness - but on a best of 3 set scenario this shouldn't be a problem. Last year in the USO he came from qualification and beat off Monfils and Ancic so the potential is definitely there.
Got to love this matchup - a naturally attacking player against one of the better counter punchers in the world. From what I have read I'm confident Djoko is 100% fit and simply see him having too many chances on Nieminen's serve based on what I saw last week to be able to punish Jarkko. Djoko's deep ground strokes with pace will also cut down the angles for which Nieminen usually thrives on hence I can't see him hurting from the back of the court.
Lets get the cash this time around.
good luck :shake:
