Tennessee Titans +3150

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
To win the AFC.

Let me preface that I have previous futures out there for the Jaguars and a few exact match ups involving the Jags as well (I like them, and there was no value in the 'Big 2'). My bigger futures are in the NFC so here is just playing for fun a bit...

My main goal here is to get through this week and then be able to assess my options. I know that this seems insurmountable playing the champions Patriots. I know the match up issues that are there. Trust me, this number is huge for a reason. Do I think the game line is inflated a bit? Obviously. A Patriots game is privy to that at all times. I'd say that 11.5 would be a more realistic number but that doesn't matter here...

We just want to win this game outright. Yes, I could take the +600 ish ML this week and roll it over to next week but I am more of a planner. There is a reason the MDF has never worked out, hehe.

The weather looks to be cold but dry. The cold front and rain comes through there Saturday morning into early afternoon...as of now.... so game time looks like around 15-20 degrees with moderate winds. That isn't too bad at all.

I hope DeMarco doesn't play. I like Tennessee much better with Henry getting the ball a lot. This isn't a reaction to last week. I have felt that way going back to preseason reading.

Lets stay close and that puts the pressure squarely on the Patriots. Remember, this Patriots team has a bad defense. The Titans can move the ball. Now, can they get a few stops? Can they not turn the ball over? We shall see. All I am asking for is a clean game called well and I think they have a punchers chance.

Lets say Titans pull out a 'miracle' 31-27....
 
even if demarco is cleared health wise, playing him would be beyond stupid right now. but I wouldn't put it past mularkey
 
Flukes are possible Bar. An injury to Brady is their best shot.

It’s very hard to beat the Pats by playing 11 on 8.

With a guy named Bobby Gronkillski the Tennessee defense needs 3 players assigned to him. Pittsburgh tried assigning 2 guys and he just ran right by both. They need to assign 3 guys watching abd concerning the Gronk.

When it’s 11on 8 other receivers like the little guy on the end BILLY CROOKS gets easy screens. Hogan is left wide open. Running backs aren’t covered and David AmenCola can just sit down in open Zones.

To beat the Pats a team has to be able to cover Gronzilla without playing 11 on 8?

This is why I don’t see the Titans beating the Pats.

Edelman was another guy who needed at least 2 defenders in him because his effort level was twice of the defense and intelligence off the charts and he wanted to win at least twice as much as the defenders.
This is how Brady completes so many easy wide open passes to everyone else.
 
Nfl teams and evaluators have big egos and suffer from arrogance.

Which AFC team has drafted a specific player with a spevifix body type and skill set to shut down the Gronk?

Tell me is this Elon Musk type of thinking required?

Why are teams not looking for 6’6 lean and long and fast linebackers that can run and cover. They would put the guy through drills to see if he has a skill set parallel to the Gronk. Can the guy dive to the ground. Can he jump. Can he change direction can he handle a 6’6 265lb ballerina like the Gronk.

Teams need to stop using guys 6 feet or 6’2 or 6’3 to try and cover a bigger guy.

Game has changed. Teams need linebackers 6’6 or taller.
A 6’8 speedster could shut down the Gronk.
 
From my careful evaluation both Gronk and Edelman are too good for the Nfl.

Brady is good but Gronk and Edekmen are too good for the league.

They are impossible to cover. They get open anytime they want to. I have yet to see a single defender give either of these guys any trouble!

They are way too good for nfl defenders.
 
Julio Jones was another guy also too good for the league.

Antonio Brown is also too goOd for defenders but only in the regular seadon.
 
Bar the recipe for tennesee to win is this.

1- Have the Tennesee O line dominate the pats D line. Lewan and Jack Conklin and Ben Jones need to manhandle the Pats front.

2- Let Derrick Henry be the offense-Allow Henry to run run and burn clock and punish the Pats.

3- Mariota makes a few passes and limits turnovers.

Limit Brady’s possessions and I’m not sure how they can stop Gronkillski but maybe Lebeau will have a few tricks.

Maybe use a defensive lineman at the line to hug and jam him all game. Maybe blitz the Gronk like a bunch of wild savages maybe take the fight to the Gronk.

Gronk is very physical guy. I think teams need to send a message listen buddy we are coming after you. A few late hits head shots etc. Make it known we are going to nail you buddy if you want the ball.

It’s the only way to stop the most dominant receiver in the past 25 years in the league.

Denver Broncos elite Super Bowl defense used this approach. Tj Ward wasn’t even looking at the ball on plays he was only looking at the Gronks body waiting for an opportunity to injure the Gronk. He laid many cheap shots in that game.

Result. Denver won because they beat the crap out of the Gronk that day.
Buffalo also nailed him and he responded with the cheap shot of the year. Clearly Gronk doesent like getting held. They should hold him all game long. Make him snap again.
 
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Perhaps one way to distract the Gronk and tire him out would be for Tennessee to SEND SOME LADIES OF THE LATE NIGHT to the Pats hotel to try and seduce GRONKSKILLA.

IT could be the only way
 
I wonder why more teams are not willing to sacrifice a 15 yard penalty for roughing the passer early in the game just to knock Brady in the jaw. When Tommy gets pressured he is not the same quarterback and if you are going to take the 15-yarder, you can make it good - a helmet right to the chin with upward force.

Of course, get ready for the "new flagrant" personal foul rule that will carry an ejection and suspension.
 
I wonder why more teams are not willing to sacrifice a 15 yard penalty for roughing the passer early in the game just to knock Brady in the jaw. When Tommy gets pressured he is not the same quarterback and if you are going to take the 15-yarder, you can make it good - a helmet right to the chin with upward force.

Of course, get ready for the "new flagrant" personal foul rule that will carry an ejection and suspension.

Bingo buddy. It’s not like the pats aren’t dirty.

Gronk could have broken tradaveous whites neck with his cheap shot.

Yes hitting Brady is a smart strategy.
 
Let's think out of the square here weeno.

Why not a TEN/PIT and TEN/JAX ML parlay. Take the winnings and play TEN ML next week, or if JAX beat PIT play around with both sides
 
Okay,

I like this kind of discussion

1 to 8.41
1 to 26.19


Now, what sort of numbers would we expect next week spread-wise? (I can guesstimate ML's from there)
 
Interesting, think you're missing the picture tho

Put Eagles in there and fly
 
Using simple numbers

$100 on TEN AFC @ 3150 = $3050 profit, or

$50 on TEN/JAX/TEN @ 5890 = $2845 profit with
$50 on TEN/PIT/PIT @ 2455 = $1122.50 profit

The first option gives you more profit, but the second gives you PIT insurance
 
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