Fulmer won't be gone if white, moses, and boyd all commit before the season is up. Boyd is likely to stay so long as the offensive assistances stay put anyway, but white and moses arent. Great recruiting staff in Knoxville.
to address a few things:
1) fulmer is not a lock to be gone. Vols win out and i would be surprised if he doesn't get one more year. Names like butch davis and John Gruden aren't exactly knocking down the door.
2) If this staff stays intact, a top 5 class is far from out of the question.
Fulmer is what, 150-50 and coming off a season where his team won the sec east? I dnot see a boat load of candidates out there who id be excited about. recruiting to tn isn't nearly as easy as it is most places, sure their budget is large but tn just has zero in-state football talent. Only 8 teams have won a national title more recently than the vols, id keep this class and give phil another year unless you could get a davis or someone like that. The Vols also have some very promising recruits committed for the following recruiting class.
I agree with most of what you say, but how many big-time programs that are really great right now got a unproven guy. USC-Carroll was a NFL reject, UGA-Richt was a coordinator, Ohio St-Tressel was a Div 1AA coach, Oklahoma-Stoops was a coordinator. There are quality coaches out there to be hired, you just got to get it right. I will say it is hard to do the first time after a coach has been there as long as Phil has. Anyways, I have been on Phil's side the whole time until this year. Chris Low said it best, "You just can't have two losing seasons at a place like Tennessee no matter how much you have already done."
As a Longhorn fan I also hope Fulmer stays. The one job out there that would leer Muschamp away from Texas.
I watch TN because I hate them, but I watch nearly every game.
The SEC is a different conference than it was while Fulmer was having his run. The coaches are better and the surrounding states are filled with coaches who recruit much better.
When UT was great (94 - 01), the SEC was essentially a 2 team conference (Florida and Tennessee). LSU in the 90's was a joke. Auburn was utterly mediocre. Georgia lost 3 or 4 games every year and never won a big one. Bama was on and off probation and mostly bad. South Carolina was horrible. These days even Vandy and Kentucky will give UT a run for their money and they were total doormats in the 90's.
Think of the upgrades on coaching staffs...LSU traded DiNardo for Saban/Miles. Vandy traded Widenhoffer for Bobby Johnson. Bama trades Mike Dubose for Saban. Georgia has Richt instead of Ray Goff. South Carolina traded Brad Scott for Spurrier. Ole Miss traded who the fuck knows for Nutt. The outstanding coaching staffs in the SEC could be counted on 1 finger (Florida) in the '90's. Now it is the best collection of coaching outside the NFL.
Tennessee has very little in-state talent so Fulmer has to make a living in SC, NC, Georgia, and Florida. Fulmer owned SC, NC and Georgia in teh 90's. Every starting defensive lineman on his '98 championship team was from SC. He simply cannot pry players like that from the surrounding states consistently any more. Hell, they can't keep Notre Dame from taking one of their precious four-star players out of Tennessee every year and they might only have 2 or 3 in the whole state.
Bowden and Spurrier are much better recruiters than anyone back in the '90s. Butch Davis does a much better job of keeping the NC kids at home. Richt is head and shoulders better than Goff. If Jamal Lewis were graduating today, he would not leave Atlanta go to UT, he would stay at home and go to Georgia.
Fulmer cannot simply out recruit everyone and overwhelm them with talent these days. The program has been trending down since 2001.
Bottom line, Fulmer cannot and will not keep up with Saban and Meyer on or off the field. If I were the AD, that's the only thing I need to know. And when I hire a new coach the only question I ask myself is "can this guy beat Saban and Meyer?"
Which is probably a better record against UF than any other coach except Bowden.Great post...but I think the Rocky Top AD would be happy with a coach who could answer the Q: "can this guy compete with Saban and Meyer (and Richt)?"
Fulmer is 5-12 all-time vs. UF...........................:36_11_6:
Think of the upgrades on coaching staffs...LSU traded DiNardo for Saban/Miles. Vandy traded Widenhoffer for Bobby Johnson. Bama trades Mike Dubose for Saban. Georgia has Richt instead of Ray Goff. South Carolina traded Brad Scott for Spurrier. Ole Miss traded who the fuck knows for Nutt. The outstanding coaching staffs in the SEC could be counted on 1 finger (Florida) in the '90's. Now it is the best collection of coaching outside the NFL.
great class coming in for the vols. likely to end top 7 if not top 5.
I just read your entire post, which is a very good one, mind you. A few mistakes, though. Unimportant to most, but important to me as a passionate college football fan who lives and breathes the sport.
Bama "traded" Mike Shula for Saban. Shula succeeded Dubose.
South Carolina "traded" Lou Holtz for Spurrier. Holts succeeded Scott.
Ole Miss "traded" Ed Orgeron for Houston Nutt.
But, your point is taken. Great overall post.