Tennessee @ Cal - Sept 1st

SHSUHorn

Thief
I'm starting to really break down some of the teams to get ready for the season and wanted to get some discussion on what I think are the biggest games early on for opening weekend. Biggest game for me (outside of Texas lol) opening weekend is Tennessee traveling to Berkley to face a Cal team that will be trying to avenge a 35-18 loss that wasn't as close as the score indicated. I've got this line pegged for Vegas opening Cal at -4.

Tennessee had a more improved passing attack last year with Cutcliffe back at OC. Ainge improved and rebounded from 2005 but he did have knee problems during spring practice that led to surgery. He is suppose to be back 100% but that time could've been used to click with almost an entire new WR corp. UT loses its top 3 WRs including 1st round pick Robert Meachum. The 3 players combined for 148 receptions, over 2300 yards, and 21 TDs.

Outside of WR the biggest question mark on offense may be the UT running attack that finished 96th in the country. The tailback by commitee didn't work and it looks like sophmore Lamarcus Coker may be the best of the bunch and will carry the load.

UT finished 50th overall on defense and couldn't stop the run finsihing 72nd. Losing its top 3 DTs in the rotation to graduation won't help. They have some young talent there but not sure they will be ready in time for the opener. In the secondary they have to replace both corners due to the graduation of Jonathan Wade and Antwan Stewart along with the injury to Inky Johnson and Roshaun Fellows getting booted from the team they are extremly thin at corner. The Vols left spring practice with only 2 corners on the depth chart and none of them have started a game. They also lost starting strong saftey Demetrice Morley to grades recently.

With Florida coming up in two weeks how much focus will this team have on Cal?

Cal returns everyone on offense but the left side of the line and Lynch. Longshore should be even better throwing to one of the best WR corp in the country led by the first team all-american punt returner Desean Jackson. the senior Justin Forsett will be just fine at RB and bring the same dimensions in the flat that Lynch had. Forsett had close to 700 yards rushing last year so he's seen plenty of action.

Honestly when does a Tedford offense ever really lose a beat?

The defense is where the issue was last year especially defending the pass where they ranked 108th. Only 5 starters return as well so there will be some early growing pains. Unless secondary coach Littlejohn made some improvements in his second year at Cal this game may come down to who's offense will be more explosive.

I like Cal at home here in this spot and think they are the play anywhere up to 6.5 points.

Thoughts on who you like?
 
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Good post,

I was looking at this as a good play because of all the defensive changes from Tenn. Pac 10 teams ALWAYS score points and this one could get out-of-hand early for the Vol's.

My line here would be 8-9.5 based on the fact that Cal will try to score early and late even with a lead. That should shift some heavy action to the dog, especially if they want to push it to 10.

Remember - the stupid clock rule from last season has been cancelled, and they will be scoring instead of running out the clock for the last 15 minutes.


Cal by 20! I hope...:shake:
 
Tenn might be starting all incoming frosh/juco's at WR, from what I remember from the Spring, no one on the current team is as talented as the new kids coming in and they are going to get a look right away since they lost they're top 3 from last yr and no one did anything in the spring to take a spot. They might not be able to take advantage of Cal secondary in the 1st game of the yr.
 
Great insight Horn. I was thinking Cal opening up around 6-6.5 then getting up to around 8 around gametime.But I still like em in this spot, and would love them if I could get less than 7. Their scoring ability is going to be ridicoulous this year.

I love this idea and might have to start a couple threads of my own for opening weekend (hopefully passes time faster)
 
I won't ever count out a senior qb like Ainge on the road, guy is good when healthy.
 
SHSU Horn, you have a good number

on the Tennessee-Cal opening matchup.

I've made it 4 1/2. This number does not open any higher than 6 in any scenario IMO.

Both teams have new faces in a lot of key areas, so I will likely pass and focus on some of the other games where I feel there is an advantage.

However, my instinct is to play Cal since _ as somebody has already pointed out _ the Golden Bears can score and Jackson is a possibility to hit a home run on either offense or the special teams.

Also, teams spend much of their summer thinking about their opening opponent and Cal definitely remembers its maiden voyage to Neyland Stadium last year.

Good luck,
Paul
 
Well it isn't determined if he is out yet for sure...if he is out this line is 8 or 9.
 
It is good to see 'Horn in midseason form.

Looking at Cal home games last vs Ariz St and Minnesota, they only 7' to 8 points. Now that they lost Lynch, got whacked by Tennessee last year and are facing a higher profile opponent...I see no way this spread is above 6...at least to open.

I gotta see what Cal has on the DL before I make this bet myself.

'an_horse'
 
Nice writeup Horn. If I recall correctly, Cal had some injuries in the secondary last year that really hampered their performance. I would think if healthy they should be better this year. Agree on your comment about Tedford's offense really never losing a beat, seems like they just reload and keep producing. I'm thinking Cal laying less than a TD looks sporty here.
 
Nice writeup Horn. If I recall correctly, Cal had some injuries in the secondary last year that really hampered their performance. I would think if healthy they should be better this year. Agree on your comment about Tedford's offense really never losing a beat, seems like they just reload and keep producing. I'm thinking Cal laying less than a TD looks sporty here.

And now UT has the issues at secondary especially corner. They will be starting some talented but very young frosh CBS more then likely. I think its going to be a long day facing those Cal WRs.
 
I want Cal in this game no matter what the line is. Obviously, I hope the line is low...but these are the types of situations I look for...
 
cal lost their best DL in Mebane, best LB in Bishop and best DB in Hughes (as well as Mixon who was looking like an AA CB during the fall but tore his ACL and missed the entire season), so the over makes sense to me as well cuz Cal's D was nothing to brag about last season and they lost a lot.

but season openers at home can pump a D up so I think Cal's D should do enough to cover.

Cal fans I know aren't concerned about the losses on the oline and actually believe the new players should be better than the guys they're replacing.

apparently Tedford did away with the quasi-spread offense he tried to mix into his normal offense the past couple seasons. He brought in a spread offence OC, who is gone now so I think they're going back to strict pro-style offense they were so successful with when Rodgers and Arrington were there.
 
are you sure that tedford is returning to old system of three years ago ? if so i may have to look at tenn as the play. i know he is taking over the play calling this year ( which i think is a good thing for cal, he is excellent) but if they arent running the system they ran last year and face a vols defense to start the year .... well it would be hard to love them too much.
 
Everything on paper points to Cal winning this one. However, everything was very similar last year when Cal went into Knoxville and got their asses handed to them. The Vols lost alot at wide receiver, but still have talented QB Eric Ainge- who is more than capable of making things happen. Ainge was the top QB in the SEC until his injury.

Cal hasn't lost much, but hasn't gain much either. They've lost Lynch, but have a very fast wide out that they will need to use to exploit the Vols uncertain secondary.

Even with home field advantage and revenge as a motivator- I don't think it will be enough. The Vols will handle Cal in a similar way that they did last year.
 
Last years game was the incredible movement game. I think the line changed by 5-6 points leading up to kickoff.
 
Everything on paper points to Cal winning this one. However, everything was very similar last year when Cal went into Knoxville and got their asses handed to them. The Vols lost alot at wide receiver, but still have talented QB Eric Ainge- who is more than capable of making things happen. Ainge was the top QB in the SEC until his injury.

Cal hasn't lost much, but hasn't gain much either. They've lost Lynch, but have a very fast wide out that they will need to use to exploit the Vols uncertain secondary.

Even with home field advantage and revenge as a motivator- I don't think it will be enough. The Vols will handle Cal in a similar way that they did last year.

My problem with Tenn this game...

How do they stop the vertical game of Cal? Is Eric Berry going to step right in an be an AA and shutdown Jackson or atleast contain him? What about Hawkins or Jordan? Who steps up at WR this early in WK1 for the Vols? We are talking about 2441 of total receiving yards and especially when your WR's will be Juco's and Frosh. There is no one on campus talented enough to play right now and make an impact at that position. It will be new players, no doubt in my mind. The 3 departed WR's accounted for 81% of Ainge's yards. 71% of your total offense came through the air last yr, can the same be said this yr? Coker better step up big time. There won't be that good of chemistry in week 1, it just won't happen. Eric Berrry might be able to step right in and play on defense but are Jones, Paige , or O'neal going to be ready to step up at WR? Cal should have a more experienced D-backfield while the Vols have a much less experience WR corps. If Longshore has time to throw this will be a very very bad matchup for Tenn.

I personally like the Over if it is under 51
 
Well, I don't like Tennessee in the opening game (any) and, although a Tennessee fan, do not like Ainge. I will be glad when he graduates. I think the coach cannot inspire his players as he should. I do hope they win. Since I can't get money to Carib and don't like the other online bookie I am with I will just be a fan again. GL on your plays.
 
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