RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Let me know your thoughts. I'll add in my season forecast later.
Florida
2007 Closing PR: 98
2008 Pre-Season PR: 100
Returning 16 starters, a Heisman winning QB, and 52 lettermen (24, 26, 2). Only significant loss on offense over offseason has been TE Cornell Ingram who was a beast, but they bring in PS#1 Aaron Hernandez who played a bit last year. On defense they have been hit hard with losses at safety. They lost projected starting SS Dorian Munroe, backup SS John Curtis, backup FS Dee Finley, and backup FS Bryan Thomas is out but may return. Look for Will Hill to get significant playing time or movement from the corners to safety.
Projected outlook: On offense, I look for almost identical numbers to the stats they put up last year (42.5 ppg, 200 rypg, 5.3 ypc, 257 pypg). On defense, I'm looking for an improvement over last year's disappointing stats (projecting 19-20 ppg, 95-100 rypg, 3.0 ypc, 250 pypg allowed).
With the attrition at DB and the projected improvement in the run defense, I look for the defense to struggle against teams that pass significantly. Look for teams to test the pass D early and often until they prove themselves.
Georgia
2007 Closing PR: 97
2008 Pre-Season PR: 100
Returning 17 starters, a 2yr starting QB, and 45 lettermen (17, 25, 3). Discipline has been the enemy of UGA in the offseason with a number of early suspensions, particularly on defense. Only significant discipline loss has been Michael Lemon who was kicked off the team. On offense, projected starting RG Clint Boling has also been suspended for the first 2. FB Brennan Southerland is also questionable with an injury.
Offensively, I think the team is pretty much on par with their 2007 stats. The question to me is the inexperience on OL and whether they can step in and open the same or better holes for Moreno. Given the inexperience on OL, we may see higher passing stats (projected: 32.6 ppg, 162-177 rypg, 4.3-4.5 ypc, 200-225 pypg). On defense, I'm looking for significant improvement, particularly due to the increased experience at LB and DB. They also return their top 4 tacklers from last year (projected: 17.6 ppg, 100-110 rypg, 3.0 ypc, 170-190 pypg allowed).
The real enemy for UGA this year is its' schedule and if they struggle, it could have an effect on their psyche. Other than that, the only real question I see is on OL.
South Carolina
2007 Closing PR: 85
2008 Pre-Season PR: 90
Returns 17 starters, a QB with 6 starts over 2Ys (Smelley), and 54 lettermen (26,26,2). Steele is high on the Cocks but I can't help but think we're going to see the same trip this year that we've seen the last 2 (promising team that does well early, fades late, but has an upset or two along the way).
Only real offseason attrition seems to be backup DT Kenrick Ellis. QB Steven Garcia is back with the team but is probably still on Spurrier's shitlist.
Something has me calling them down a notch on offense. Maybe it's because, despite having the OBC, they have only added 3 ppg to their average over the last 2 years. This year, I actually think they will drop a bit on offense (projected: 24-26 ppg, 145-160 rypg, 4-4.2 ypc, 200-221 pypg) with an increased focus on the run behind a very experienced OL. The receiving corps looks very good but they need a QB to throw to them and Smelley sucks something awful. Again, the Cocks will have to rely on the defense to keep them in games and they return 10 starters, including their top 5 tacklers (projected: 21-23 ppg, 165-175 rypg, 4.1-4.3 ypc, 170-190 pypg allowed). If they can devote their LBs to stopping the run, they could improve even more.
Cocks bring in a new DC.
Tennessee
2007 Closing PR: 92
2008 Opening PR: 90
Vols return 14 starters, a new QB in Crompton, and 47 returning lettermen (21,22,4).
The Vols lost 2 backups over the offseason in backup WR Kenny O'Neal and backup OL Darrio Sawtelle.
Given that the Vols will be working Crompton in as QB, I look for more reliance on the run and the offensive numbers will drop (projected: 28-30 ppg, 150-185 rypg, 4.2 ypc, 200-233 pypg). Their strength is their OL and RB Aaron Foster. On defense, I'm looking for significant improvement over 2007 awful stats. They only return 2 of their top 5 tacklers (projected: 22.7-27 ppg, 135-165 rypg, 4 ypc, 216-240 pypg allowed).
Steele does point out some troubling issues with TOs and being outgained.
New OC in this year too.
Look for teams to test the QB and passing game by focusing on stopping the run. On defense, the weak link looks to be the LBs who are all very inexperienced.
Kentucky
2007 Closing PR: 87
2008 Pre-Season PR: 84
Kentucky is returning only 14 starters, lost their MVP QB and just recently lost their projected starter, but returns 57 lettermen (26,27,4).
Offseason losses have been heavy. They recently lost projected starting QB Curtis Pulley. Add in the loss of projected starting CB Paul Warford, and backup RG Josh Winchell and backup RT Phillip Hibbard.
UK was going to struggle on offense this year before the loss of Pulley. Now they have to struggle and get Hartline or Fidler ready. They also lost RB Rafael Little who really made the team go and also their top 2 WRs. This season could get ugly, particularly early [L-ville revenge in opener] (projected: 26-27 ppg, 150 rypg, 3.3-3.6 ypc, 200 pypg). The defense will need to keep them in games, and they return 8 including 4 of their top 5 tacklers. With the loss of Warford, the weak link on D appears to be the DBs (projected: 29-31 ppg, 174-190 rypg, 4.2-4.6 ypc, 190-205 pypg allowed). Unfortunately, with the offense struggling I just see too much pressure on the D.
Defensive focus against UK will be to take away the run game and force the young QBs to throw. On offense, they will be looking to throw at Warford's successor who will be green.
Vanderbilt
2007 Closing PR: 81
2008 Pre-season PR: 79
Returning a mere 9 starters, 2 QBs with starting experience, and 48 lettermen (22,23,3).
Only offseason loss has been an injury to WR George Smith.
Vandy is going to get crushed on offense. They lose their top rusher and their OL only returns 3 starts total. Too fuckin' green to make a difference here. Look for similar numbers to the last 5 years (projected: 19.5-21 ppg, 145-150 rypg, 3.5 ypc, 186-200 pypg). Defensively, they return 3 of their top 5 tacklers but lose their leader. The strength of the VU defense will be the DBs, but the front 7 is really questionable with serious losses on DL and LB (projected: 29-30 ppg, 156-170 rypg, 4.1-4.3 ypc, 200 pypg allowed).
Look for defenses to test the OL and take away the pass forcing the rush. On offense, teams will be looking for soft spots in the front 7, control the line, and then be opportunistic with passing.
Back later with the SEC West.
Florida
2007 Closing PR: 98
2008 Pre-Season PR: 100
Returning 16 starters, a Heisman winning QB, and 52 lettermen (24, 26, 2). Only significant loss on offense over offseason has been TE Cornell Ingram who was a beast, but they bring in PS#1 Aaron Hernandez who played a bit last year. On defense they have been hit hard with losses at safety. They lost projected starting SS Dorian Munroe, backup SS John Curtis, backup FS Dee Finley, and backup FS Bryan Thomas is out but may return. Look for Will Hill to get significant playing time or movement from the corners to safety.
Projected outlook: On offense, I look for almost identical numbers to the stats they put up last year (42.5 ppg, 200 rypg, 5.3 ypc, 257 pypg). On defense, I'm looking for an improvement over last year's disappointing stats (projecting 19-20 ppg, 95-100 rypg, 3.0 ypc, 250 pypg allowed).
With the attrition at DB and the projected improvement in the run defense, I look for the defense to struggle against teams that pass significantly. Look for teams to test the pass D early and often until they prove themselves.
Georgia
2007 Closing PR: 97
2008 Pre-Season PR: 100
Returning 17 starters, a 2yr starting QB, and 45 lettermen (17, 25, 3). Discipline has been the enemy of UGA in the offseason with a number of early suspensions, particularly on defense. Only significant discipline loss has been Michael Lemon who was kicked off the team. On offense, projected starting RG Clint Boling has also been suspended for the first 2. FB Brennan Southerland is also questionable with an injury.
Offensively, I think the team is pretty much on par with their 2007 stats. The question to me is the inexperience on OL and whether they can step in and open the same or better holes for Moreno. Given the inexperience on OL, we may see higher passing stats (projected: 32.6 ppg, 162-177 rypg, 4.3-4.5 ypc, 200-225 pypg). On defense, I'm looking for significant improvement, particularly due to the increased experience at LB and DB. They also return their top 4 tacklers from last year (projected: 17.6 ppg, 100-110 rypg, 3.0 ypc, 170-190 pypg allowed).
The real enemy for UGA this year is its' schedule and if they struggle, it could have an effect on their psyche. Other than that, the only real question I see is on OL.
South Carolina
2007 Closing PR: 85
2008 Pre-Season PR: 90
Returns 17 starters, a QB with 6 starts over 2Ys (Smelley), and 54 lettermen (26,26,2). Steele is high on the Cocks but I can't help but think we're going to see the same trip this year that we've seen the last 2 (promising team that does well early, fades late, but has an upset or two along the way).
Only real offseason attrition seems to be backup DT Kenrick Ellis. QB Steven Garcia is back with the team but is probably still on Spurrier's shitlist.
Something has me calling them down a notch on offense. Maybe it's because, despite having the OBC, they have only added 3 ppg to their average over the last 2 years. This year, I actually think they will drop a bit on offense (projected: 24-26 ppg, 145-160 rypg, 4-4.2 ypc, 200-221 pypg) with an increased focus on the run behind a very experienced OL. The receiving corps looks very good but they need a QB to throw to them and Smelley sucks something awful. Again, the Cocks will have to rely on the defense to keep them in games and they return 10 starters, including their top 5 tacklers (projected: 21-23 ppg, 165-175 rypg, 4.1-4.3 ypc, 170-190 pypg allowed). If they can devote their LBs to stopping the run, they could improve even more.
Cocks bring in a new DC.
Tennessee
2007 Closing PR: 92
2008 Opening PR: 90
Vols return 14 starters, a new QB in Crompton, and 47 returning lettermen (21,22,4).
The Vols lost 2 backups over the offseason in backup WR Kenny O'Neal and backup OL Darrio Sawtelle.
Given that the Vols will be working Crompton in as QB, I look for more reliance on the run and the offensive numbers will drop (projected: 28-30 ppg, 150-185 rypg, 4.2 ypc, 200-233 pypg). Their strength is their OL and RB Aaron Foster. On defense, I'm looking for significant improvement over 2007 awful stats. They only return 2 of their top 5 tacklers (projected: 22.7-27 ppg, 135-165 rypg, 4 ypc, 216-240 pypg allowed).
Steele does point out some troubling issues with TOs and being outgained.
New OC in this year too.
Look for teams to test the QB and passing game by focusing on stopping the run. On defense, the weak link looks to be the LBs who are all very inexperienced.
Kentucky
2007 Closing PR: 87
2008 Pre-Season PR: 84
Kentucky is returning only 14 starters, lost their MVP QB and just recently lost their projected starter, but returns 57 lettermen (26,27,4).
Offseason losses have been heavy. They recently lost projected starting QB Curtis Pulley. Add in the loss of projected starting CB Paul Warford, and backup RG Josh Winchell and backup RT Phillip Hibbard.
UK was going to struggle on offense this year before the loss of Pulley. Now they have to struggle and get Hartline or Fidler ready. They also lost RB Rafael Little who really made the team go and also their top 2 WRs. This season could get ugly, particularly early [L-ville revenge in opener] (projected: 26-27 ppg, 150 rypg, 3.3-3.6 ypc, 200 pypg). The defense will need to keep them in games, and they return 8 including 4 of their top 5 tacklers. With the loss of Warford, the weak link on D appears to be the DBs (projected: 29-31 ppg, 174-190 rypg, 4.2-4.6 ypc, 190-205 pypg allowed). Unfortunately, with the offense struggling I just see too much pressure on the D.
Defensive focus against UK will be to take away the run game and force the young QBs to throw. On offense, they will be looking to throw at Warford's successor who will be green.
Vanderbilt
2007 Closing PR: 81
2008 Pre-season PR: 79
Returning a mere 9 starters, 2 QBs with starting experience, and 48 lettermen (22,23,3).
Only offseason loss has been an injury to WR George Smith.
Vandy is going to get crushed on offense. They lose their top rusher and their OL only returns 3 starts total. Too fuckin' green to make a difference here. Look for similar numbers to the last 5 years (projected: 19.5-21 ppg, 145-150 rypg, 3.5 ypc, 186-200 pypg). Defensively, they return 3 of their top 5 tacklers but lose their leader. The strength of the VU defense will be the DBs, but the front 7 is really questionable with serious losses on DL and LB (projected: 29-30 ppg, 156-170 rypg, 4.1-4.3 ypc, 200 pypg allowed).
Look for defenses to test the OL and take away the pass forcing the rush. On offense, teams will be looking for soft spots in the front 7, control the line, and then be opportunistic with passing.
Back later with the SEC West.