Tell Me Where I'm Wrong--Pac 10 Initial Power Rankings

[RJ Esq]

My overall view of the Pac 10 is that there is USC and then there is a pack of 4-5 teams, then a 3rd tier of 2-3 teams, then a 4th tier of 2 teams. I'll just call it USC and everyone else. USC is the only one who should get to a BCS team.

USC
2007 Closing PR: 99
2008 Pre-season PR: 99

I'd call them equal to the #1 team in the country, but the recent injury to Sanchez has me concerned. I think MM will start agains UVA and perhaps against tOSU given that he will now get the majority of snaps in the fall camp.

USC returns just 11 starters, but brings in probably the most talent in the ENTIRE country over the last 5 years of recruiting classes. They bring in Sanchez and MM at QB and return 46 lettermen (22,22,2).

Other than Sanchez, no notable offseason losses.

On offense, if they main concerns is establishing a solid passing game--which was missing last year--and the OL. They have to replace 4 OL this year. Production should be about the same or maybe a little better considering that the Pac 10 is down (projection: 33-35 ppg, 200 rypg, 4.5-5 ypc, 230-260 pypg). On D, they return 7 but only return 2 ov their top 5 tacklers. The concern to me is the front 7 and the run D. However, I think that there won't be much of a dropoff (projection: 16-18.5 ppg, 90-110 rypg, 3 ypc, 200 pypg).

People's Republic of California
2007 Closing PR: 82
2008 Pre-season PR: 88

I don't agree with Cal at #2 where Steele has them. They will have talent, but they lose sooooo much. They return QB Longshore and 12 starters, but will likely have a QB battle on their hands. They return 40 lettermen (14,23,3). They lose their top RB with 1600 yds and their top 4 receivers.

No notable offseason losses

On offense, assuming that they can decide early on a consistent QB, the concerns will be at RB and WR. There is just too much inexperience at both positions and the production will be down. On OL, they return 3 starters and should have equal production (projection: 29-32 ppg, 160-170 rypg, 4.7-5 ypc, 235-245 pypg). On D, they return 8, but lose their top tackler (but return #2-5). The weak link to me looks to be the DBs with 2 new starters. I look for the D to keep them in games and for Cal to do better than last year, where they sucked like only NorCal can (projection: 21-24 ppg, 120-130 rypg, 3.3-3.7 ypc, 210-225 pypg).

Oregon
2007 Closing PR: 86
2008 Pre-season PR: 93

I had Oregon way too low in their bowl game against USF. They were motivated and showed they still have alot of talent and skill. They return 12 starters and 53 lettermen (26,23,4) but have to bring in a new QB this year. They are in the 2nd year under OC.

Offseason losses: Backup QB Cody Kempt and backup FS Todd Doxey (pased away offseason).

On offense, aside from QB, the main loss will be Jonathan Stewart at RB (2000 all purpose yds). They return 3 OL and their top 2 receivers. I think that whether it is Costa or Roper at QB, they will do fine. However, the main concern to me is the running game (projected: 32-35 ppg, 180-200 rypg, 4.6-5 ypc, 230-240 pypg). On D they return 7 including 4 of their top 5 tacklers. The defense looks very solid with the concern being at DT where they bring in 2 new starters (projection: 23-26 ppg, 130-140 rypg, 3-3.6 ypc, 210-225 pypg).

 

[RJ Esq]

ASU
2007 Closing PR: 94
2008 Pre-season PR: 91

I'd have them higher but they have had a ton of offseason losses that I think will hurt them.

ASU returns 13 starters in Erickson's 2nd year. They bring back Ruuuudy Carpenter who is very good so long as he's not talking shit about Texas but only 39 lettermen (16,22,1).

This is a young team on offense and they lost alot in the offseason. Offseason losses: Backup WR Rodney Glass, starting TE Dane Guthrie, backup TE Lance Evbuomwan, starting RT Richard Taitu'u, backup WLB Antone Saulsberry, and incoming WR Jarrell Barbour.

On offense, the concern will be the OL that returns the guards but have to start 3 new players. They return Carpenter, Herring, and their top 2 receivers (projected: 32 ppg, 140-150 rypg, 3.5-3.9 ypc, 274-310 pypg). On D, they return 7, including 3 of their top 5 tacklers. The concern to me is the DL and the run D (projected: 22-23 ppg, 115-125 rypg, 3.5.-3.7 ypc, 230 pypg).

Arizona
2007 Closing PR: 84
2008 Pre-season PR: 87

Still not buying 'Zona despite returning 13 starters, including 10 starters to the 2nd year of a TT style offense. They only return 39 lettermen (16,21,2), which tells me aside from their starters, they are very young on offense.

Offseason losses: LT J'Marcus Webb.

On offense, I look for increased production. They return 10 starters but must find a LT (projected: 30-32 ppg, 85-120 rypg, 3.5-3.9 ypc, 300-325 pypg). On D, they only return 3 starters and lose their top tackler. The entire D should drop off a good deal, but I'm most concerned about the front 7 (26-29 ppg, 140-150 rypg, 3.6-4 ypc, 235-250 pypg).

 

[TheGarfather]

I don't think you can have Cal way behind Oregon like that. Those two teams are basically the exact same.

Great coaching, above average talent, great OL play, good defenses for a change, questions at QB that will be answered adequately, but not until the season starts. Only difference I can find is a little more quality and experience in the offensive skill spots for Oregon, but you would never be able to sell me that its a five point gap in power ratings. Maybe 1 or 2. I think they have to be more or less tied, whether you have the pair of them in front of ASU or behind the Sun Devils is your call. I like Arizona State's this year and have confidence in DE to work out the kinks in that line. I agree with PS's top 5, I just don't necessarily agree with the way he has them ordered 2-4.

 

[RJ Esq]

Oregon St.
2007 Closing PR: 88
2008 Pre-season PR: 87

Beavers return 10 starters, a 2nd year attorney, and 45 lettermen (24,21,0).

Offseason losses: Starting FS Bryan Payton and starting SS Al Afalava (susp. opener).

On offense, they return 7 starters but lose their top RB and 2 of their top 3 receivers. They get Sammie Stroughter back at WR though. I look for very equal production to last year but I'm concerned about replacing Bernard at RB (projection: 28 ppg, 150 rypg, 3.9-4.2 ypc, 240 pypg). On D, they return just 3 and only 2 of their top 5 tacklers. My concern is the entire front 7, but particularly the LBs. The DL got an influx of JC talent, but the run D may be a problem (projection: 24-25 ppg, 95-115 rypg, 2.6-3.1 ypc, 235-245 pypg).

UCLA
2007 Closing PR: 86
2008 Pre-season PR: 86

This will be the first year for Neuheisel and will most likely be a rebuilding year. They bring in QB Kevin Craft into a situation where they've had problems with injuries. They return only 9 starters and 41 lettermen (18,19,4).

Offseason losses: Starting RT Sean Sheller and starting SS Bret Lockett (susp. opener).

On offense, the concern will be the passing game and the OL. They only return the center and they lose their top 2 receivers. I look for a slight improvement (projection: 23-25 ppg, 150 pypg, 3.2 ypc, 200 pypg). On D, they return 5 but lose their top 3 tacklers. The main concern to me will be the DBs who bring in 3 new starters (projection: 22-23 ppg, 110-120 rypg, 2.8-3.2 ypc, 220-235 pypg).

Washington
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 84

Huskies return 13 starters in Willingham's LAST SEASON, return mobile QB Locker, but only 30 lettermen (12,15,3). The depth absolutely sucks and Willingham's recruiting classes haven't panned out.

Offseason losses: Backup RB JR Hasty, backup CB Jordan Murchison, backup center Juan Garcia (inj), and starting OLB EJ Savannah (inj).

On offense, they lose their top RB and their top 4 receivers. Those will be the biggest concerns. If Locker can stay healthy he will have a huge OL to play behind (projection: 29 ppg, 160-180 rypg, 4.5-5 ypc, 225 pypg). On D, they return 6 and bring back 6 of their top 7 tacklers. The primary concern will be the DL and run D. They may move to 3-4 on a number of occasions due to depth at the position (projection: 26-27 ppg, 150 rypg, 4.1-4.3 pyc, 230-240 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

Stanford
2007 Closing PR: 67
2008 Pre-season PR: 76

Stanford returns 16 starters, a 2nd year QB, in the 2nd year of the coach's systems, and 46 lettermen (27,18,1).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return 7, including their QB, top 3 RBs, and their top receiver. The passing game is the concern on this side of the ball but I look for continuing improvement (projection: 22 ppg, 130 rypg, 3.4 ypc, 210-235 pypg). On D, they return 9, including 10 of their top 11 tacklers. Overall, they should improve their numbers and will need to to win games after last 3 years' bad numbers (projection: 28 ppg, 140-155 rypg, 3.7-4 ypc, 240-250 pypg).

Washington St
2007 Closing PR: 82
2008 Pre-season PR: 80

Cougars return 14 starters, bring in a new coaching system, but only 36 returning lettermen (19,15,2). This is a VERY YOUNG team.

Offseason losses: Backup QB Cole Morgan, backup TE Trevor Moroney, starting FS Xavier Hicks (susp. first 3 games).

On offense, they return 6 ncluding their top 2 RBs and top receiver. The passing game will be the major concern as they are breaking in a new QB and receivers (projection: 25-26 ppg, 130 rypg, 3.7-4 ypc, 240-270 pypg). On the D, they return 8 but lose their top tackler (they return 8 of their top 9 tacklers). The DL will be my main concern (projection: 24-27 ppg, 115-130 rypg, 3.2-3.4 ypc, 230-245 pypg).

 

[RJ Esq]

I don't think you can have Cal way behind Oregon like that. Those two teams are basically the exact same.

Great coaching, above average talent, great OL play, good defenses for a change, questions at QB that will be answered adequately, but not until the season starts. Only difference I can find is a little more quality and experience in the offensive skill spots for Oregon, but you would never be able to sell me that its a five point gap in power ratings. Maybe 1 or 2. I think they have to be more or less tied, whether you have the pair of them in front of ASU or behind the Sun Devils is your call. I like Arizona State's this year and have confidence in DE to work out the kinks in that line. I agree with PS's top 5, I just don't necessarily agree with the way he has them ordered 2-4.

Cal has talent but I don't like them all that much compared to Oregon and ASU. I'd put Cal 3rd or 4th. I my have them too low at 88, but until they show me something I'm not moving them up above ASU. Oregon is my #2 team and I feel confident with that. I think that USC is a TD favorite over the #2 team on a neutral field right now. If USC can establish a passing game, they will likely be the #1 team in the country.

 

[Fried_Shrimp]

As far as SC QB situation......

Not sure I'd worry about Sanchez, Mustain is a QUALITY QB. He had a hell of a run at Arkansas two years ago. Still have not figured out why he even got benched. He must of done something off field or something.

 

[RJ Esq]

As far as SC QB situation......

Not sure I'd worry about Sanchez, Mustain is a QUALITY QB. He had a hell of a run at Arkansas two years ago. Still have not figured out why he even got benched. He must of done something off field or something.

Yep. MM is a Texas traitor but a good quality QB. Word was he was neck and neck with Sanchez in spring. With this injury, I think MM will keep the job as he will probably start against UVA and tOSU.

 

[Fried_Shrimp]

Texas? He's from Little Rock Arkansas. Won 7 games as a freshman at Arky, threw one INT and Coach Nutt benched him in favor of C Dick for some unkown reason. My guess is he slept with the coach's daughter or something.

Was one of the top QB recruits coming out of HS three years ago. Could start anywhere in the country. Arkansas was lucky to have him for one year.

:shake:

ps
Love your threads, waiting on the Big East highlights which is a biggie. They have an EZ ride this year and WV has Auburn at home and that could be a major swing game.

 

[RJ Esq]

You're right about that. I forgot he was at Springdale HS.

 

[RSMS9999]

I think you have the upper half of the Pac-10 about perfect but I got a lot of disagreements with the bottom. IMO, you are not giving Stanford nearly enough credit at all. I think they will be at least better than Wazzu and probably even or above a couple other teams too. I think you got UCLA too high too. They are really going to struggle.

 

[RJ Esq]

Thanks for the input, RSMS. I think you may be right on both counts.

 

[bjorks]

RJ - Between ASU, Oregon, and CAL you've got 3 teams that all have a shot to finish 2nd. Oregon is the most proven, CAL has the most talent, ASU has the worst schedule, etc.

My only difference with you is I wouldn't call ASU's offense young. Nearly everyone except for at TE saw significant time last year.

 

[RJ Esq]

RJ - Between ASU, Oregon, and CAL you've got 3 teams that all have a shot to finish 2nd. Oregon is the most proven, CAL has the most talent, ASU has the worst schedule, etc.

My only difference with you is I wouldn't call ASU's offense young. Nearly everyone except for at TE saw significant time last year.

Bjorks--They only have 16 returning lettermen on offense. That to me is a very young team overall.

 

[RSMS9999]

RJ - Between ASU, Oregon, and CAL you've got 3 teams that all have a shot to finish 2nd. Oregon is the most proven, CAL has the most talent, ASU has the worst schedule, etc.

I would have to disagree with you about the schedule, I think it is pretty clear Oregon has a tougher schedule than ASU this year in conference.

They are very similar, these are the differences. (all other games are the same home/away)

Arizona State

Oregon
@Washington
Washington St.
@Arizona

Oregon

Washington
@Washington St.
@Arizona St.
Arizona

The big difference is obviously the game against each other and ASU has the luxury of that game in Tempe. The other three should be pretty mediocre squads where home field should not be nearly as important. I think the Ducks would trade their schedule for ASU's any day. Regardless, it is pretty clear that they both are looking at very difficult roads, much harder than California's.

I also not sure that I buy that Cal has the most talent either.

 

[TheGarfather]

For my money Cal is definitely the most talented of the three. They didn't always play like it down the stretch last year as the QB spot was in shambles, but if they play up to their potential they are the conference's second best group. The UO-ASU series tends to go in waves. ASU won a few, now Oregon has won a few, pendulum might start swinging back the other way.

 

[bjorks]

Dude are you crazy? Oregon has NOTHING like the stretch ASU has from Sept. 20 to the end of October. Georgia, @ CAL, @ USC, Oregon. That's 2 teams in the Top 5 and 4 consecutive games against teams in the Top 30! Not to mention their rivalry game is @ Arizona.

RJ - The only reason I don't think or consider ASU young on offense is Carpenter, Herring, Jones, and Fanaika are SR's. Nance, Williams, Jovon Williams, McGaha, Lauvao, and Altieri are JR's. That's 10 starters that are upper classman. Granted they're young at LT and TE after that, but it's a very experienced group. Some of the guys who did not letter played significant minutes down the stretch last year due to injuries, but didn't qualify for the letter. Erickson has repeatedly talked about the experience the offense has.

 

[RSMS9999]

Dude are you crazy? Oregon has NOTHING like the stretch ASU has from Sept. 20 to the end of October. Georgia, @ CAL, @ USC, Oregon. That's 2 teams in the Top 5 and 4 consecutive games against teams in the Top 30! Not to mention their rivalry game is @ Arizona.

You are making no sense. Oregon has a stretch of @SC, UCLA, @ASU and @CAL. Is that nothing like ASU's stretch? Besides, what does the Georgia game have to do with finishing 2nd in the Pac-10, it is irrelevant. Their rivalry game is @ Arizona, Oregon's is at OSU too.

I am far from saying ASU's schedule is not very difficult, but I am far from crazy in saying the Duck's face a tougher road in conference. You are either not looking at Oregon's schedule or reading my analysis right.

 

[horses]

Oregon definitely has a tougher conference schedule than Ariz St...not sure how one could argue otherwise.

Totally agree with Garfather that Cal is the 2nd most talented team in the Pac10; to me, they have two proven QB's in Riley and Longshore (and they'll likely need both of them). I don't worry too much about the Cal skill players as I'm sure they have guys that are talented, just unproven. To me, OL and QB is where you want experience and Cal has that as well as what should be their best defense in about 4 years.

 

[RJ Esq]

I moved Cal up to 90 and UCLA down to 83.