Tell Me Where I'm Wrong--C-USA Initial Power Rankings

[RJ Esq]

Tulsa
2007 Closing PR: 78
2008 Pre-season PR: 80

Dodge's 2nd year looks good on offense with 14 total starters returning, they bring in a new QB to replace vet QB Paul Smith, and 40 lettermen (17,19,4).

No notable offseason losses.

The offensive jugernaut that went from 28 ppg to 41 ppg in one year should improve despite the loss of Smith at QB. They return 9 starters including their top 3 RBs and top 4 receivers. They also return 4 OL and only have to replace their LT. The biggest concern is at QB but I expect similar or better numbers in their 2nd year of the PVC flip chart playcalling system (projection: 41-43 ppg, 192 rypg, 4.8 ypc, 340-350 pypg). On D, they are hoping that it will be addition by subtraction as they return only 5 starters and lose their top 4 tacklers from a D that allowed 33.4 ppg. Their top 3 tacklers each had 114 or more tackles last year (leader had 165!), so that will be hard to replace. The losses hit the LBs the worst, but they move in starters from last year at DE and CB to fill the void. The DL and DBs should improve if they can get help from the LBs (projection: 27-32 ppg, 140-165 rypg, 4.2-4.3 ypc, 190-210 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

SMU
2007 Closing PR: 68
2008 Pre-season PR: 75

Steele is very high on SMU this year calling it a great place for Jones to come in and calls them one of the most improved teams this year. He cites a -9 TO ratio and Jones' past history of turnarounds at Hawaii and 5 net close losses from last year.

Jones does step into a pretty good situation with 13 returning starters including a 3rd year QB who threw for almost 3000 yds last year and a 25-18 ratio. They bring in a new coaching system and team and return 41 lettermen (15,22,4).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense they return 6 including their QB, top 2 rushers, and top receiver. QB Willis bore too much of the responsibility for the offense last year putting up 4000 all purpose yards. This year, the focus will be on passing but give the stable of RBs, I don't expect the rushing to fall off too much. They return 3 starters on OL but one of the projected new starters was injured last year and has experience (projection: 35-38 ppg, 145-155 rypg, 4-4.3 ypc, 290-315 pypg). On D they return 7 including 4 of their top 5 tacklers. The D really fucked them last year so I expect improvement this year. I like the back 7 who should get some big-time work going against the passing offense in practice. My concern is the DL (projection: 27-31 ppg, 145-165 rypg, 3.7-4.2 ypc, 245-260 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

University of Texas at Mexico
2007 Closing PR: 65
2008 Pre-season PR: 72

Price enters his 5th year with 12 returning starters, a 2nd year QB who threw for some fantastic numbers, bring in a new OC and DC, and return 46 lettermen (22,21,3).

Offseason losses: Projected starting FS Roddray Walker is injured and may miss the whole season.

On offense, UTEP returns 5 starters including QB Vittatoe who threw for 3100 yds and a 25-7 ratio in his rFr year. They lose their top 2 rushers including their leader with 1200 yds, but do return their leading receiver and center and left side of the OL. I'm calling for a slight drop in rushing numbes and increased focus on the pass this year with similar scoring averages (projected: 33-36 ppg, 140-155 rypg, 3.8-4.1 ypc, 275-300 pypg). On D, they return 7 starters to their worst performing D in 5 years. They lose their starting tackler and only return 2 of the top 5. They move to a 3-3-5 this year and the LBs look to be the weak link. I still call for improvement and think they can at least get back to their 2006 numbers (projection: 31 ppg, 150-160 rypg, 3.9-4.2 ypc, 240-260 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

Cougar High
2007 Closing PR: 80
2008 Pre-season PR: 75

This is HC Sumlin's first year and he returns just 12 starters, a 2nd year QB, brings in 2 new coordinators, and 49 lettermen (19,26.4).

No notable offseason losses.

The team gets a tune-up against Southern to get used to the system before facing Okie Lite in Stillwater. It'll be interesting to see how they adapt. They return just 5 starters on offense, but return QB Keenum and 3 OL. They lose RB Alridge and their top 2 receivers. The ofense should still put up good numbers but will likely be down a notch or two (projection: 28-31 ppg, 170 rypg, 4.2 ypc, 240-270 pypg). On D, the return 7 starters but lose their #1 tackler. They do return 3 of their top 5 tacklers, though. They move from a 3-4 to a 4-3 base. I like the DL and DBs and think they could improve ovre last year's stats (projection: 27-29 ppg, 135-140 rypg, 3.7 ypc, 205-220 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

The Nerds at Rice
2007 Closing PR: 67
2008 Pre-season PR: 72

In Bailiff's 2nd year from coming over from Texas St and inheriting a pretty good team left by Dodge, the Rice Owls return 16 starters including a 3rd year QB, and 53 lettermen (24,27,2). This is a very veteran team.

No notable offseason losses.

Last year, they improved upon the already very good offensive numbers of 2006. What absolutely fucked them was the D that allowed 43 ppg last year. This year, they return 9 starters on offense including QB Clement, their top 3 RBs, and their top 3 receivers. The losses are on the OL along the left side but their projected starting LT started the last 5 games last year. The weak part of the offense last year was the running backs and Clement was the #1 rusher by far. I still expect Clement to rush quite a bit but he will also be able to equal or exceed his passing numbers (projected: 33-36 ppg, 130 rypg, 3.9 ypc, 290-310 pypg). On D, they MUST improve to have a shot at a bowl. They return 7 starters, including their top 5 tacklers and top sack artist. Looking at the projected starters, the back 7 looks much improved and the glaring potential weakness is at DT (projection: 33-34 ppg, 150-180 rypg, 4.2 ypc, 225-245 pypg allowed).

Tulane
2007 Closing PR: 68
2008 Pre-season PR: 70

Now in the 2nd year of Toledo's schemes and 3 years removed from Katrina, Tulane returns 15 starters, return 2 of 3 QBs with experience from last year--but lose starter Scelfo, bring in a new DC and return 48 lettermen (23,22,3).

Offseason losses: Last year's starter, projected backup QB Anthony Scelfo.

On offense, they return 8 starters, including 2 of 3 QBs, their #2 and #3 rushers, and top 2 receivers. THE problem is they lose RB Forte who added 2400 all purpose yds. On the OL, they return 4 (projection: 27-28 ppg, 135 rypg, 3.7-3.9 ypc, 215-235 pypg). On D, they return 7 starters including 4 of their top 5 tacklers. I see overall improvement but my concern is at DT and the DBs (projection: 30-31 ppg, 133 rypg, 3.9 ypc, 225-250 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

ECU Fightin' Skip Holtzes
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 79

Skip returns 16 starters, a 2nd year QB, and 48 lettermen (21,24,3).

ECU was very fortunate last year getting +17 in TOs and only outgaining CUSA opponents by 30 ypg. They also had 3 net close wins. Steele himself calls them #1 in the East due to their weak schedule. To me that means an equal or lesser PR to last year.

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return 7 including QB Patrick Pickney but lose stud RB Johnson. They do return the #2 and #3 RBs and their top receiver and 4 OL (and the one OL not listed as a starter started 8 games as a freshman). I look for similar scoring but more focus on the passing game (projection: 31 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.8-4 ypc, 235 pypg). On D they return 9 starters to a team that allowed nearly 10 pts more than in 2006. They return 3 of their top 5 tacklers and I like the unit overall, particularly on DL (projection: 23 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.7 ypc, 200-230 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

UCF
2007 Closing PR: 83
2008 Pre-season PR: 79

In his 5th year since fuckin' up the ND job, O'Leary returns 14 starters, brings in NC State transfer at QB, brings in a new DC who was in system, but return just 37 starters (15,20,2).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return just 5 starters and lose their QB and RB Smith with nearly 3000 all purpose yards. They do return their #2 RB and top 3 receivers. They also only return 2 of their OL and must replace their center. I look for not only the offensive numbers to decrease but the loss of the big running game to affect the D (projection: 29-32 ppg, 140-170 rypg, 3.8-4 ypc, 180-210 pypg). On D, there will be much more pressure as the running game on offense won't be able to control the clock. That would mean worse numbers, but they return 9 starters including their top 7 tacklers. I look for very similar numbers to last year with some improvement in the pass d (projection: 26 ppg, 135-150 rypg, 4 ypc, 210-235 pypg allowed).

 

[TheGarfather]

Now in the 2nd year of Toledo's schemes and 3 years removed from Katrina, Tulane returns 15 starters, return all 3 QBswith experience from last year , bring in a new DC and return 48 lettermen (23,22,3).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return 8 starters, including their QBs, their #2 and #3 rushers, and top 2 receivers. THE problem is they lose RB Forte who added 2400 all purpose yds. On the OL, they return 4 (projection: 27-28 ppg, 135 rypg, 3.7-3.9 ypc, 215-235 pypg). On D, they return 7 starters including 4 of their top 5 tacklers. I see overall improvement but my concern is at DT and the DBs (projection: 30-31 ppg, 133 rypg, 3.9 ypc, 225-250 pypg allowed).

Scelfo is done with football. He chose pro baseball.

 

[RJ Esq]

Marshall
2007 Closing PR: 71
2008 Pre-season PR: 75

Marshall returns 17 starters, brings in a new QB, and return 41 lettermen (18,22,1) while losing only 15 lettermen.

Steele calls for Marshall to be bowl eligible this year and one of the most improved teams after being -10 TO ratio last year and having 2 net close losses. So part of the math is schedule, other is luck, and the last is returning experience. The luck and experience get the PR increase but schedule means very little.

Offseason losses: Starting CB JJ Johnson.

On offense they return 8 starters but have to replace their QB. They return their top 2 RBs, top 4 receivers, and 3 of the OL. I expect the offense to improve but it will depend on the QB play (projection: 25-29 ppg, 165-195 rypg, 4.7 ypc, 245 pypg). On D they return 9 starters, including their top 4 tacklers and top 3 sack artists. They did lose projected starting CB JJ Johnson in the offseason. The one concern I have is at LB while they should otherwise improve overall (projection: 26-29 ppg, 140-170 rypg, 4-4.2 ypc, 225 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

Scelfo is done with football. He chose pro baseball.

Thanks for the catch. I'll make the edit.

 

[TheGarfather]

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return 7 including QB Patrick Pickney but lose stud RB Johnson. They do return the #2 and #3 RBs and their top receiver and 4 OL (and the one OL not listed as a starter started 8 games as a freshman). I look for similar scoring but more focus on the passing game (projection: 31 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.8-4 ypc, 235 pypg). On D they return 9 starters to a team that allowed nearly 10 pts more than in 2006. They return 3 of their top 5 tacklers and I like the unit overall, particularly on DL (projection: 23 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.7 ypc, 200-230 pypg allowed).

Dominique Lindsay is out for at least 6-8 weeks with a knee problem, could be longer. 3rd stringer JR Rogers is out as well. Jonathan williams will be the RB. Brandon Simmons will get carries as well.

DT Linvall Joseph will be out for a undetermined period of time, but def not ready for the opener. Hasn't recovered from back surgery as quickly as expected. Brandon Setzer out for the year with a knee. There goes your DT rotation and depth. they need to stay perfectly healthy from here on out.

Don't know if you put any special teams stuff into your power ratings, but its unknown if PK Ben Hartman will be ready at the season's start.

Lots of attrition for the Pirates, what went from a possible/likely play is now a no-play.

 

[RJ Esq]

Memphis
2007 Closing PR: 70
2008 Pre-season PR: 72

Memphis returns 15 starters, brings in a new QB--and gets to choose from 2 BCS transfers, bring in a new DC, and return 52 lettermen (22,26,4).

Reading Steele, he believes that Memphis overacheived last year with +10 TO ratio and 3 net close wins. They were also outscored by 23 pts in CUSA play. He, however, thinks that is negated by having 15 starters back this year. I tend to agree and think that they could be better in the 2nd year of a spread passing attack that puts more pressure on the defense since they cannot control the clock.

Offseason additions: QB Bass from Maryland.

On offense, they return 15 starters and have QB Hall from Wash St projected to start. They return their #2 RB and top 7 receivers. They also return 3 OL and one of the new projected starters actually started 3 games at another line position. Pressure will be on the QB to build on the new offensive stats (projection: 29-30 ppg, 140 rypg, 3.6-3.8 ypc, 260-280 pypg). On D, they return 8 starters including 3 of the 5 top tacklers (although they lose the #1 tackler). The LBs last year were very banged up and I look for overall improvement. There are no glaring weaknesses at any of the units (projection: 27-30 ppg, 180-200 rypg, 4.5 ypc, 190-220 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

Dominique Lindsay is out for at least 6-8 weeks with a knee problem, could be longer. 3rd stringer JR Rogers is out as well. Jonathan williams will be the RB. Brandon Simmons will get carries as well.

DT Linvall Joseph will be out for a undetermined period of time, but def not ready for the opener. Hasn't recovered from back surgery as quickly as expected. Brandon Setzer out for the year with a knee. There goes your DT rotation and depth. they need to stay perfectly healthy from here on out.

Don't know if you put any special teams stuff into your power ratings, but its unknown if PK Ben Hartman will be ready at the season's start.

Lots of attrition for the Pirates, what went from a possible/likely play is now a no-play.

Thanks for all the info, man. Injuries can fuck up plans and evaluations very easily.

 

[RJ Esq]

ECU Fightin' Skip Holtzes
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 79

Skip returns 16 starters, a 2nd year QB, and 48 lettermen (21,24,3).

ECU was very fortunate last year getting +17 in TOs and only outgaining CUSA opponents by 30 ypg. They also had 3 net close wins. Steele himself calls them #1 in the East due to their weak schedule. To me that means an equal or lesser PR to last year.

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return 7 including QB Patrick Pickney but lose stud RB Johnson. They do return the #2 and #3 RBs and their top receiver and 4 OL (and the one OL not listed as a starter started 8 games as a freshman). I look for similar scoring but more focus on the passing game (projection: 31 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.8-4 ypc, 235 pypg). On D they return 9 starters to a team that allowed nearly 10 pts more than in 2006. They return 3 of their top 5 tacklers and I like the unit overall, particularly on DL (projection: 23 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.7 ypc, 200-230 pypg allowed).

Now with edits:

ECU Fightin' Skip Holtzes
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 77

Skip returns 16 starters, a 2nd year QB, and 48 lettermen (21,24,3).

ECU was very fortunate last year getting +17 in TOs and only outgaining CUSA opponents by 30 ypg. They also had 3 net close wins. Steele himself calls them #1 in the East due to their weak schedule. To me that means an equal or lesser PR to last year.

Offseason losses: Backup DT Brandon Selzer and starting DT Linval Joseph (injured), incoming Fr LB Max Johnson (injured), starting RB Dominique Lindsay (injured), backup RB JR Rogers (injured), PK Ben Hartman (injured).

On offense, they return 7 including QB Patrick Pickney but lose stud RB Johnson. They do return the #2 and #3 RBs and their top receiver and 4 OL (and the one OL not listed as a starter started 8 games as a freshman). I look for similar scoring but more focus on the passing game (projection: 31 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.8-4 ypc, 235 pypg). On D they return 9 starters to a team that allowed nearly 10 pts more than in 2006. They return 3 of their top 5 tacklers and I like the unit overall, but the concern now is depth at DT (projection: 23 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.7 ypc, 200-230 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

USM
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 70

Larry Fedora's first year as HC does not look good as they return just 10 starters, must start a new QB, bring in 2 new coordinators, and return 41 lettermen (18,19,4).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return 6 starters, but have to start a new QB and only their tackles on OL. They do return their top RB (1600 yds) and top 2 receivers. Obviously the numbers should decrease in the first year of a new system under a new QB and an inexperienced OL (projection: 23-25 ppg, 200-225 rypg, 4.2-4.4 ypc, 175-190 pypg). On D, they return 4 starters and only 2 of 5 of their top tacklers. The LBs look to be the strength of the D but the DL looks scary inexperienced and could fuck up the whole D's production (projection: 27-30 ppg, 140-160 rypg, 4-4.2 ypc, 220-240 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

The Blazers
2007 Closing PR: 66
2008 Pre-season PR: 70

HC Callaway's 2nd year has 16 returning starters, a brand new QB, and 39 lettermen (22,15,2).

Steele likes the number of returning starters but doesn't like the experience level amongst the starters (only 4 returning senior starters and only 7 seniors overall).

Offseason losses: Backup QB Anthony Speight.

On offense, they return 7 starters and start a new QB in QB Webb (he did play in final 3 last year). They also return their top RB (whopping 370 yds) and top 2 receivers (QB Webb doesn't count) and 3 OL and one projected new starter who started 5 last year. I expect better numbers compared to the last 2 years (projection: 22 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 4 ypc, 225-240 pypg). On D, they return 9 starters including the top 4 tacklers. The D looks evenly balanced and should improve overall particularly with a more powerful offense and, hopefully, a more productive running game (projection: 29-30 ppg, 145-175 rypg, 3.9-4.3 ypc, 215-230 pypg allowed).