RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
On to the #2 conference this year. This will be the most competitive Big XII season that I can remember with a number of upsets. The South is absolutely loaded and even Baylor could be up and coming in the next few years. The North also has 4 teams that will be very competitive and another (KSU) that will score an upset or two.
To the South.
Oklahoma
2007 Closing PR: 103
2008 Pre-Season PR: 98
Return 13 starters, QB Bradford, but just 42 lettermen (22,18,2).
Offseason losses are incoming freshmen WR Josh Jarboe and OL Britt Mitchell.
Offensively, Oklahoma returns an amazing running game with Demarco Murray behind THE BEST OL in CFB. The OL will do a great job with run blocking and protecting Bradford. Question will be whether Bradford has a sophmore slump ala Colt McCoy. I don't think he will (projected: 42-43 ppg, 200-210 rypg, 4.7-4.8 ypc, 250-260 pypg). On D, they only return 5 and lose their top 4 tacklers, including Curtis Lofton (156 tackles!). The back 7, particularly the DBs are the real concern. Young, talented, but inexperienced (projected: 21-24 ppg, 90-105 rypg, 3-3.3 ypc, 230-250 pypg).
Bear in mind that almost every teams' defensive stats will suffer as the Big XII, and particularly the Big XII South should be the offensive juggernaut of CFB.
Against offense, teams are going to have to pick their poison. I think most will try to sell out against the run. Against the D, they are going right after the DBs and teams that play the spread (TT) may have great success.
Texas
2007 Closing PR: 90
2008 Pre-season PR: 95
You'll notice that I have Texas over TT. A bit of a homer pick but I'm not buying TT's hype this year. That being said, TT could beat OU or Texas this year. They too will be very good.
Texas returns only 11 starters, but returns Colt McCoy at QB, bring in a new DC, by all accounts a new coaching philosophy and intensity, and 47 lettermen (25,18,4).
Offseason loss: Incoming WR Antoine Hicks did not qualify and went to TCU.
Offensively, Texas will be strong again. Everyone is calling for a drop off in the running game. I think there will be, but not by much. Vondrell McGee and Fozzy Whittaker are both strong backs and when has Texas not had an excellent running game? The problem last year--a young OL--is now a strength and the passing game should improve if Colt can feel like it's not all on him (and they add in a couple of #4 WR replacement candidates in Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner) (projected: 38-41 ppg, 200 rypg, 5 ypc, 240-260 pypg). The main reason why every magazine is down on Texas is their D. It only returns 4 starters and they lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers. My belief is that this year it will be a case of addition by subtraction. Most of the losses were from lackluster recruiting classes and their replacements are inexperienced but vastly more talented. Add in Muschamp and a much more aggressive attitude and I think the difference will be noticeable. The main concern is the DBs who are YOUNG, particularly at safety. Still, I think there will be drastic improvement on the stats (projected 21-23 ppg, 100-115 rypg, 2.9-3.2 ypc, 240 pypg allowed).
Against the offense, teams will likely test the OL and running game first and see if Colt throws INTs. Last year Colt had a 22-18 ratio, which is pretty bad but not horrible. Compared to his freshman year of 29-7, it sucked. I think that he'll cut down on his INTs this year. Also look for offensive sets with Chiles and Colt on the field at the same time. Against the D, teams will go after the DBs. Texas will line up in alot more nickel this year to defend against the spread attacks permeating the BXII.
Texas Tech
2007 Closing PR: 88
2008 Pre-Season PR: 93
TT returns 18 starters, a senior Heisman Trophy candidate QB, the best WR in the country, one of the best WR corps in the country, and 61 lettermen (26,29,6)!
Offseason losses: Backup RB Kobey Lewis, backup CB Steven Harris, and probably starting DE McKinner Dixon (unknown if he will be gone for season).
Tech will have one of the best offenses in the entire country with 10 returning starters coming back to a team that put up 41 ppg last year. I look for slightly higher numbers this year (projected: 42-43 ppg, 80-100 rypg, 3.6-3.8 ypc, 470 pypg). I wonder when Leach will give his running back more true carries. On D, 8 starters return and they return 3 of their top 5 tacklers. Alot has been made of the defensive improvement since teh loss at OSU last year. However, the caliber of opponents dropped off for the most part. When they did play better opponents (Mizzou, Texas, and Virginia), the D got their ass handed to them. The weak spot will be the DBs (projected: 25-26 ppg, 150-160 rypg, 3.8-4 pyc, 190-200 pypg allowed).
Against the offense, teams will have to cover the pass in a nickel formation. Tech doesn't run traditionally (3 yard passes don't count). Against the D, teams are going right after the DBs.
Oklahoma St
2007 Closing PR: 87
2008 Pre-Season PR: 87
Okie Lite returns 13 starters, QB Zach Robinson, but only 34 lettermen (15,16,3). They also bring in a new OC.
No offseason losses of note.
Okie Lite tends to always be a darkhorse in the South. The number of returning lettermen is a cause for concern. This will be a young team. On the offensive side of the ball, the concern will be at RB and WR as they lost their 1300 yrd rusher and 1000 yd receiver. Will anyone step up to those numbers? Probably not. On the OL, they need to replace their center but return everyone else (projected: 34-36 ppg, 225-230 rypg, 5-5.2 ypc, 230-240 pypg). On D, they return 6, but lose their top tackler in a balanced defense. The weakness will be the front 4. It has talent, but not experience and will take time to gel (projected: 26-28 ppg, 150-160 rypg, 4-4.2 ypc, 230-250 pypg).
Against the offense, teams will be taking away the pass and forcing Okie Lite to run. Against the defense, look for teams to run to set up the pass until the DL can prove them can stop the run.
Aggies
2007 Closing PR: 86
2008 Pre-Season PR: 85
The Fighting Sheepfuckers return just 10 starters, return a Sr. option QB, bring in a pro-style offense coaching staff, and return 45 lettermen (17,24,4).
It's going to be interesting to see what Sherman does with this option offense and how he transitions it into a pro-style offense. Honestly, he doesn't have the personnel to run his desired offense and will have to make accomodations.
Offseason losses: Starting K Matt Szymanski and backup WLB Derrick Stephens.
Offensively, there are a number of weaknesses--most notably at OL and WR. The OL only returns 1 starter and needs to learn new blocking schemes. Also, the WRs have not proven that they can put up big numbers and they lose their top 2 receiving options. Production will be down (projected: 25-28 ppg, 180-210 rypg, 4.4 ypc, 185-215 pypg). On the defensive side, Aggy loses their top 2 tacklers and the losses are particularly heavy for the front 7 (projection: 24-25 ppg, 160-180 rypg, 4.3 ypc, 230-250 pypg).
Against the offense, taking away the run until they can prove they can pass in the new system. Against the defense, going right after the front 7 on the ground.
Baylor
2007 Closing PR: 66
2008 Pre-Season PR: 72
Baylor returns 15 starters, including 9 to a spread offense which now gets one of the best offensive coaches in Art Briles, and 49 returning lettermen (21,26,2).
No notable offseason losses.
Baylor will need another year, but they could make great strides offensively this year with Miami Fl QB Freeman and Fr. Robert Griffin coming in. Briles is a very good offensive coach and has worked magic with less. Aside from the new systems, starting a new QB, the other worry is the running game after losing their top RB. But under Briles, the stats should improve (projection: 21-23 ppg, 110 rypg, 3-3.3 ypc, 250-280 pypg). For the D, they return 6 including 3 of the top 5 starters. Overall, I look for improvement from all areas of the D, with the main question mark being the LBs (projected: 32-37 ppg, 165-180 rypg, 4.1-4.5 ypc, 240-270 pypg).
Against the offense, teams will attack the freshmen QB until he can prove himself. Look for the WRs to get one on one coverage. Against the defense, look for a more balanced attack as teams probe for the soft spots. Is it the run or the pass? We'll see.
To the South.
Oklahoma
2007 Closing PR: 103
2008 Pre-Season PR: 98
Return 13 starters, QB Bradford, but just 42 lettermen (22,18,2).
Offseason losses are incoming freshmen WR Josh Jarboe and OL Britt Mitchell.
Offensively, Oklahoma returns an amazing running game with Demarco Murray behind THE BEST OL in CFB. The OL will do a great job with run blocking and protecting Bradford. Question will be whether Bradford has a sophmore slump ala Colt McCoy. I don't think he will (projected: 42-43 ppg, 200-210 rypg, 4.7-4.8 ypc, 250-260 pypg). On D, they only return 5 and lose their top 4 tacklers, including Curtis Lofton (156 tackles!). The back 7, particularly the DBs are the real concern. Young, talented, but inexperienced (projected: 21-24 ppg, 90-105 rypg, 3-3.3 ypc, 230-250 pypg).
Bear in mind that almost every teams' defensive stats will suffer as the Big XII, and particularly the Big XII South should be the offensive juggernaut of CFB.
Against offense, teams are going to have to pick their poison. I think most will try to sell out against the run. Against the D, they are going right after the DBs and teams that play the spread (TT) may have great success.
Texas
2007 Closing PR: 90
2008 Pre-season PR: 95
You'll notice that I have Texas over TT. A bit of a homer pick but I'm not buying TT's hype this year. That being said, TT could beat OU or Texas this year. They too will be very good.
Texas returns only 11 starters, but returns Colt McCoy at QB, bring in a new DC, by all accounts a new coaching philosophy and intensity, and 47 lettermen (25,18,4).
Offseason loss: Incoming WR Antoine Hicks did not qualify and went to TCU.
Offensively, Texas will be strong again. Everyone is calling for a drop off in the running game. I think there will be, but not by much. Vondrell McGee and Fozzy Whittaker are both strong backs and when has Texas not had an excellent running game? The problem last year--a young OL--is now a strength and the passing game should improve if Colt can feel like it's not all on him (and they add in a couple of #4 WR replacement candidates in Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner) (projected: 38-41 ppg, 200 rypg, 5 ypc, 240-260 pypg). The main reason why every magazine is down on Texas is their D. It only returns 4 starters and they lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers. My belief is that this year it will be a case of addition by subtraction. Most of the losses were from lackluster recruiting classes and their replacements are inexperienced but vastly more talented. Add in Muschamp and a much more aggressive attitude and I think the difference will be noticeable. The main concern is the DBs who are YOUNG, particularly at safety. Still, I think there will be drastic improvement on the stats (projected 21-23 ppg, 100-115 rypg, 2.9-3.2 ypc, 240 pypg allowed).
Against the offense, teams will likely test the OL and running game first and see if Colt throws INTs. Last year Colt had a 22-18 ratio, which is pretty bad but not horrible. Compared to his freshman year of 29-7, it sucked. I think that he'll cut down on his INTs this year. Also look for offensive sets with Chiles and Colt on the field at the same time. Against the D, teams will go after the DBs. Texas will line up in alot more nickel this year to defend against the spread attacks permeating the BXII.
Texas Tech
2007 Closing PR: 88
2008 Pre-Season PR: 93
TT returns 18 starters, a senior Heisman Trophy candidate QB, the best WR in the country, one of the best WR corps in the country, and 61 lettermen (26,29,6)!
Offseason losses: Backup RB Kobey Lewis, backup CB Steven Harris, and probably starting DE McKinner Dixon (unknown if he will be gone for season).
Tech will have one of the best offenses in the entire country with 10 returning starters coming back to a team that put up 41 ppg last year. I look for slightly higher numbers this year (projected: 42-43 ppg, 80-100 rypg, 3.6-3.8 ypc, 470 pypg). I wonder when Leach will give his running back more true carries. On D, 8 starters return and they return 3 of their top 5 tacklers. Alot has been made of the defensive improvement since teh loss at OSU last year. However, the caliber of opponents dropped off for the most part. When they did play better opponents (Mizzou, Texas, and Virginia), the D got their ass handed to them. The weak spot will be the DBs (projected: 25-26 ppg, 150-160 rypg, 3.8-4 pyc, 190-200 pypg allowed).
Against the offense, teams will have to cover the pass in a nickel formation. Tech doesn't run traditionally (3 yard passes don't count). Against the D, teams are going right after the DBs.
Oklahoma St
2007 Closing PR: 87
2008 Pre-Season PR: 87
Okie Lite returns 13 starters, QB Zach Robinson, but only 34 lettermen (15,16,3). They also bring in a new OC.
No offseason losses of note.
Okie Lite tends to always be a darkhorse in the South. The number of returning lettermen is a cause for concern. This will be a young team. On the offensive side of the ball, the concern will be at RB and WR as they lost their 1300 yrd rusher and 1000 yd receiver. Will anyone step up to those numbers? Probably not. On the OL, they need to replace their center but return everyone else (projected: 34-36 ppg, 225-230 rypg, 5-5.2 ypc, 230-240 pypg). On D, they return 6, but lose their top tackler in a balanced defense. The weakness will be the front 4. It has talent, but not experience and will take time to gel (projected: 26-28 ppg, 150-160 rypg, 4-4.2 ypc, 230-250 pypg).
Against the offense, teams will be taking away the pass and forcing Okie Lite to run. Against the defense, look for teams to run to set up the pass until the DL can prove them can stop the run.
Aggies
2007 Closing PR: 86
2008 Pre-Season PR: 85
The Fighting Sheepfuckers return just 10 starters, return a Sr. option QB, bring in a pro-style offense coaching staff, and return 45 lettermen (17,24,4).
It's going to be interesting to see what Sherman does with this option offense and how he transitions it into a pro-style offense. Honestly, he doesn't have the personnel to run his desired offense and will have to make accomodations.
Offseason losses: Starting K Matt Szymanski and backup WLB Derrick Stephens.
Offensively, there are a number of weaknesses--most notably at OL and WR. The OL only returns 1 starter and needs to learn new blocking schemes. Also, the WRs have not proven that they can put up big numbers and they lose their top 2 receiving options. Production will be down (projected: 25-28 ppg, 180-210 rypg, 4.4 ypc, 185-215 pypg). On the defensive side, Aggy loses their top 2 tacklers and the losses are particularly heavy for the front 7 (projection: 24-25 ppg, 160-180 rypg, 4.3 ypc, 230-250 pypg).
Against the offense, taking away the run until they can prove they can pass in the new system. Against the defense, going right after the front 7 on the ground.
Baylor
2007 Closing PR: 66
2008 Pre-Season PR: 72
Baylor returns 15 starters, including 9 to a spread offense which now gets one of the best offensive coaches in Art Briles, and 49 returning lettermen (21,26,2).
No notable offseason losses.
Baylor will need another year, but they could make great strides offensively this year with Miami Fl QB Freeman and Fr. Robert Griffin coming in. Briles is a very good offensive coach and has worked magic with less. Aside from the new systems, starting a new QB, the other worry is the running game after losing their top RB. But under Briles, the stats should improve (projection: 21-23 ppg, 110 rypg, 3-3.3 ypc, 250-280 pypg). For the D, they return 6 including 3 of the top 5 starters. Overall, I look for improvement from all areas of the D, with the main question mark being the LBs (projected: 32-37 ppg, 165-180 rypg, 4.1-4.5 ypc, 240-270 pypg).
Against the offense, teams will attack the freshmen QB until he can prove himself. Look for the WRs to get one on one coverage. Against the defense, look for a more balanced attack as teams probe for the soft spots. Is it the run or the pass? We'll see.
