Tell Me Where I'm Wrong--Big Ten Initial Power Rankings

[RJ Esq]

Ohio State
2007 Closing PR: 100
2008 Pre-season PR: 100

tOSU returns 19 starters, a 2nd year QB, add in a mobile QB for more options, 53 lettermen (22,27,4).

Offseason losses: Backup QB Antonio Henton.

Offensively, tOSU should pick up right where they left off. The only loss is at RT (projection: 35 ppg, 195-210 rypg, 4.6-5.0 ypc, 200-225 pypg). On D, they return 9 including their top 4 tacklers. From top to bottom the D is scary (projection: 12-13 ppg, 80-90 rypg, 2.5 ypc, 160-180 pypg allowed).

Teams will need a balanced D and O to successfully attack tOSU.

Penn St
2007 Closing PR: 91
2008 Pre-season PR: 93

PSU returns 18 starters, brings in a new starting QB (but anything is better than Morelli), and 38 lettermen (16,20,2).

No notable offseason losses.

The 2 questions on offense will be new QB Clark or Devlin. Both are fairly talented but very inexperienced. The other question are the RBs after losing the #1 RB LY. Expect some improved numbers with a more mobile QB (projected: 30-34 ppg, 195-230 rypg, 4.8-5.1 ypc, 190-210 pypg). On D, they lose their top 2 tacklers and the only ones with more than 135 tackles. The only notable losses--and the weakest unit--is at LB. But then again, PSU recruits well at LB (projection: 17-18 ppg, 90-100 rypg, 2.5-2.8 rypg, 195-215 pypg allowed).

Attacking the offense, defenses will force PSU to run. Against the defense, teams will need to be balanced.

Wisconsin
2007 Closing PR: 88
2008 Pre-season PR: 91

Wisky returns 17, starts KSU QB transfer Allan Evridge, and 48 lettermen (25,23,0).

Offseason losses: Backup RB Lance Smith.

Wisky is starting a talented but very inexperienced KSU transfer at QB. I expect numbers to be about the same as last year, since they were fairly low last year. Passing game is the real question (projection: 30 ppg, 200-215 rypg, 4.4-4.7 ypc, 210-225 pypg). On D, Wisky returns 9 including their top 5 tacklers. I expect all D stats to improve with the more experienced units (projection: 20-22 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.8-4.1 ypc, 215-225 pypg allowed).

Against the offense, teams will test Evridge and the passing game and plan on stopping the run first. Against the D, look for balanced offenses to have the best success. It is a very evenly talented squad.

 

[RJ Esq]

Iowa
2007 Closing PR: 83
2008 Pre-season PR: 87

Iowa returns 13 starters, returns a QB with one year under his belt, and 52 lettermen (26,22,4).

No notable losses in the offseason.

On offense, Iowa loses a 1000 rusher and their #2 WRs. They return a 1Y QB with 2300 yrds and a 17-6 ratio. They return their whole OL, but the main concern will be in the rushing game (projected: 24-26 ppg, 130-140 rypgy, 3.5-4 ypc, 210-230 pypg). On D, they return 5 starters but lose 3 of their 5 top tacklers including their leader. The DL looks solid, but the primary concern will be the LBs and CBs (projected: 19-21 ppg, 105-115 rypg, 2.8-3.2 ypc, 210-230 pypg allowed).

Last year they benefitted from +8 in TOs but were outgained in Big Ten play.

Against the offense, teams will play the pass and force Iowa to run until they can prove they can do both. Against the defense, teams are going to attack with the pass. The weakness is in the back 7.

Michigan
2007 Closing PR: 89
2008 Pre-season PR: 87

Michigan returns just 10 starters, brings in a new QB, new HC and coaching staff with systems, and returns 45 lettermen (15,25,5).

No notable offseason losses.

The offense is in tough shape as it goes from a pro-style offense to a spread run option attack. The projected starter is Steven Threet from GT but he's not the perfect QB for the system. The OL has one returning starter and they lose their top RB and top 2 receivers. Numbers are falling (projected: 24-26 ppg, 165-185 rypg, 3.8-4 ypc, 170-190 pypg). Michigan will have to rely upon the D to keep them in games. They return 7 but lose their top 4 tacklers. The questionable squads will be the LBs and safeties (projected: 20-21 ppg, 130-140 rypg, 3.4-3.6 ypc, 180-200 pypg allowed).

Against the offense, teams will try to force the pass given the proclivity of the offense to run. Against the defense, teams will focus on the pass attack and test the LBs and DBs.

Illinois
2007 Closing PR: 90
2008 Pre-season PR: 88

The Illini return 13 starters, a QB with 2 years experience, and 44 lettermen (21,21,2).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, Illinois loses Mendenhall with 2000 all purpose yards. They return Juice Williams at QB and Benn at WR and 3 OL. The major concern will be the loss of Mendenhall and offensive production will be down (projection: 26-28 ppg, 160-180 rypg, 5-5.2 ypc, 170-190 pypg). On D, they return 6 but lose their top 3 tacklers including their leader (132 tackles). The DL looks awesome but the back 7 is the concern, particularly at LB. Production will be down too (projection: 22-25 ppg, 120-130 rypg, 3.3-3.7 ypc, 230-245 pypg).

They are losing more lettermen than any team in the Big Ten. Against the offense, teams will try to force Williams to pass. Against the defense, teams who have strong passing games should have success.

 

[RJ Esq]

Michigan State
2007 Closing PR: 88
2008 Pre-season PR: 87

MSU is now in the 2nd year of D'Antonio's systems. They return 13 starters, return Brian Hoyer at QB, but only return 37 lettermen (15,19,3).

Offseason losses: Backup QB Connor Dixon.

Hoyer is now a senior QB, but loses his top 2 receivers. They return Javon Ringer at RB and 3 out of 5 OLs. I look for similar offensive numbers (projected: 33 ppg, 200 rypg, 4-4.4 ypc, 220-230 pypg). On D, they return 6 including 3 of their top 5 tacklers. The concern on D will be the DL and then the LBs. I look for similar numbers here as well (projection: 26-27 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.6-3.8 ypc, 210-220 pypg allowed).

Against the offense, teams should sell out against the run game. Against the D, I look for most to rush first and test the DL.

Northwestern
2007 Closing PR: 80
2008 Pre-season PR: 83

NW returns 15 starters, bring in 2 new coordinators, bring back 2 year starter Bacher at QB, and return 47 lettermen (26,17,4).

On offense, they bring in Bowling Green's OC and should have a more potent offense. The offense looks solid, but the OL is a concern with only 2 returning starters. Sutton had a banged up year at RB last year and he should hopefully be healthier. Look for improved numbers (projected: 26-30 ppg, 140-170 rypg, 3.6 ypc, 300 pypg). On offense they return 8 starters, but lose the top 2 tacklers and 3 of the top 5. The weakness will be the back 7, and especially the DBs. I look for improved numbers here too (projected: 28.5-31 ppg, 160-170 rypg, 4.1-4.4 ypc, 230-240 pypg allowed).

New OC brings in a no huddle spread so offensive numbers should be very much improved.

Against the offense, teams will most likely try to stop the pass first and force Sutton to run. Against the defense, teams should go after the DBs first.

Purdue
2007 Closing PR: 84
2008 Pre-season PR: 84

Purdue returns 12 starters, a three year starting QB, and 41 lettermen (19,20,2). This is Joe Tiller's last year and there should be an extra emotional burst early and late in the season.

No notable losses for the season.

On offense, the concerns are WRs and OL where they lost the top 2 receivers and 2 OL, including the center. I look for similar numbers from the team, but with improved numbers from Kory Sheets at the RB and lesser production from the receivers (projection: 34 ppg, 130-150 rypg, 4.1-4.3 ypc, 290-320 pypg). On D, they return 6, but lose 4 of their top 5 tacklers. The concern here is the back 7, particularly the LBs. I anticipate similar numbers from last year (projected; 26 ppg, 140-150 rypg, 3.7-4 ypc, 240 pypg allowed).

Against the offense, teams will focus on the pass. Against the defense, teams will test the pass defense.

 

[RJ Esq]

Minnesota
2007 Closing PR: 73
2008 Pre-season PR: 80

Gophers return 15 starters, a 2nd year QB, a coaching staff in their 2nd year, and 42 returning lettermen (20,19,3). This is a very young team that had a horrible year, lost 15 net turnovers and lost 5 close games.

Offseason losses: Starting WR Tray Herndon, backup QB Clint Brewster, backup CB Harold Howell, incoming LB Sam Maresh.

On offense, we should see significant improvement. They do lose the #1 rusher and their starting center (projection: 29-31 ppg, 160-200 rypg, 4.5-4.7 ypc, 240-250 pypg). On D, they return 7 but lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers. The concern on D will be the pass D and particularly the DBs. I do look for overall improvement in the stats (projection: 26-29 ppg, 155-180 rypg, 4.3-4.4 ypc, 250-270 pypg allowed).

They do bring in a new DC--the 6th in 10 years.

Indiana
2007 Closing PR: 81
2008 Pre-season PR: 80

Hoosiers return 13 starters, a 3rd year starter, a coaching staff in their 2nd year after taking over for Hoepner, and 50 lettermen (22,26,2).

Only notable offseason loss is incoming WR Marquelo Suel.

On offense, the Hoosiers lose a 1100+ yard receiver and 3 of the OL, including the center. I look for similar numbers from last year (projection: 32 ppg, 155-160 rypg, 4.3 ypc, 230-240 pypg). On D, they return 7 starters, including 3 of the top 5 tacklers. The strength will be be the front 7 while the weakness will be at CB. Other than a possible regression in pass D, I look for similar or improved numbers (projected: 28-29 ppg, 160 rypg, 3.8 ypc, 245-255 pypg allowed).

Against offense, teams will try to pressure the OL and QB while trying to stop the run. They want Lewis to pass. Against the defense, teams will attack the CBs until they prove themselves.

 

[Dollywood]

Being an IU graduate (and a fan), I will chime in with my thoughts on the Hoosiers this year. I look for them go 2-6 or 3-5 in the conference, thereby not finishing last in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, they don't play OSU or Michigan, both of which would have been almost guaranteed losses. Specifically, I think they will beat NW at home (Oct. 25) and one or two of the following Big Ten games:

at Minnesota (Oct. 4)
Iowa (Oct. 11)
at Purdue (Nov. 22)

While the Hoosiers lost WR James Hardy to the NFL draft and CB Tracy Porter to graduation (and the NFL draft), they do return a good amount of talent. See below for my thoughts:

QB
Kellen Lewis is back, and while he may be rusty to start off the season, having a guy like him gives you a chance to be in some ball games you otherwise may not be.

RB
Both Thigpen and Bryan Payton return from last year. Additionally, true frosh Darius Willis will be in the fold and by the end of the year, he should have increased PT. This is by no means a strength of IU, their ability to spread the field allows the RBs to perform pretty well.

WR
Like I mentioned, the loss of Hardy hurts, as does the transfer of James Bailey. However, they do return Ray Fisher and Andrew Means, both of whom saw very meaningful minutes last year. I personally think Fisher is quite the stud and believe he will have a breakout year now that he is not in the shadow of Hardy. In addition to the two aforementioned individuals, look for Terrance Turner and true frosh Tandon Doss to see meaningful minutes. Specifically look out for Doss, he was not highly recruited, but has really good size and will surprise some, even in year one.

OL/TE
This is what will determine whether IU is just an average or above average Big Ten team imo. They only return two starters, but the other three individuals will come from a group who has been in the system for a couple of years and have had time to develop. Lewis' athletic ability allows this group to make mistakes but they will have to perform well if they want to match last year's 7 wins.

Special Teams
I won't go into too much detail, but stud kicker Austin Starr returns, which could prove extremely important because they could have a couple of close games.

DL
In addition to the nation's leading sack man from a year ago, Greg Middleton, the Hoosiers also return the opposite side DE in Kirlew. Additionally, they return starting DT Greg Brown. Look for this group to be one of the team's strengths as they have some quality depth behind the above mentioned guys. Being a strength will also help offset the loss of Porter, as they should be in the backfield quite often.

LB
Two of three starters return in Patterson and Geno Johnson; however the other spot will be occupied by Mayberry, who played plenty last year. While I won't consider this group a major strenght of IU, they are a pretty good unit who has experience in Big Ten battles.

DB
Both safeties, Nick Polk and Austin Thomas, return from a year ago, but the Hoosiers will have to look for some help at CB from some inexperienced faces.

With all of this said, IU was 7-6 last year, and given the increase in experience and to a certain degree, increase in talent, there is no real reason they can't do it again. They do have 8 home games, and don't play either Michigan or OSU. Vegas has them at 5 wins; however I have not seen an online sportsbook that would allow me to bet the over, otherwise I would pound it. I guess my overall point to this is, I don't think IU will finish last in the Big Ten. I don't think they will finish in the upper echelon, but finishing somewhere in the middle of the pack is not unrealistic by any means.

Hope this helps.

 

[RJ Esq]

Very nice, Dolly. What do you think of their PR (a pk against Minny on a neutral or a TD dog against Michigan or Michigan St on a neutral)?

 

[broadwayjoe]

these are great threads rj...only things i'd change is i'd personally have iowa a couple points lower and mich st a couple of points higher...think you're spot on with psu and wisky which is very refreshing and the rest look good too

 

[RetroVK]

We basically look alike again.

Not going to squabble over a point.

 

[Dollywood]

RJ -

Like others said, these are great posts. As far as your question, I would have IU as a a one and a half to two point favorite over Minnesota on a neutral field.

 

[Norseman]

:shake: Nice posts RJ. I agree with your top 3. I believe Illinois' recruiting will make them a little more competitive than most think. :smiley_abvm:

 

[G-Man]

IMO - these 3 are under rated
.
Buckeyes should be 106 ( Future National Champions.)

Penn State 97. Will beat everyone except Buckeyes, in a close game

Wisconsin 94. Too much talent to be rated less than 94.


:shake:

 

[brewer]

Dare ya to test Vontae...

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[B.A.R.]

Great write-up Dollywood, thanks for posting that.

 

[Dollywood]

No problem B.A.R. To the extent you or others have questions on either IU or ND (I actually know much more about ND), feel free to ask me the question. When it comes to betting on or against these teams, I am very unbiased and probably did much better with these teams than I did other teams last year. With that said, as also posted in another thread, I locked in two GOTY lines for ND games:

MSU -3 over ND (2 units)
NC -2 over ND (1 unit)

BOL to both you and your Wolverines this year.

 

[RJ Esq]

Penn St
2007 Closing PR: 91
2008 Pre-season PR: 93

PSU returns 18 starters, brings in a new starting QB (but anything is better than Morelli), and 38 lettermen (16,20,2).

No notable offseason losses.[Edit: Starting DT Phillip Taylor and backup DT Chris Baker]

The 2 questions on offense will be new QB Clark or Devlin. Both are fairly talented but very inexperienced. The other question are the RBs after losing the #1 RB LY. Expect some improved numbers with a more mobile QB (projected: 30-34 ppg, 195-230 rypg, 4.8-5.1 ypc, 190-210 pypg). On D, they lose their top 2 tacklers and the only ones with more than 135 tackles. The only notable losses--and the weakest unit--is at LB. But then again, PSU recruits well at LB (projection: 17-18 ppg, 90-100 rypg, 2.5-2.8 rypg, 195-215 pypg allowed).

Attacking the offense, defenses will force PSU to run. Against the defense, teams will need to be balanced.

Not sure how I missed those losses.