Tell Me Where I'm Wrong--ACC Initial Power Rankings

[RJ Esq]

Will this be the year where the ACC steps up and is more competitive top to bottom? No, I still think they are a year or two away.

Clemson
2007 Closing PR: 89
2008 Pre-season PR: 92

It seems every year that Clemson dances around my PR between 89 and 94, win the games they aren't supposed to and then lose the games they are supposed to win. It'll happen again this year. It's Bowden's Clemson.

Clemson returns 16 starters, a 2nd year Sr. QB, and 52 lettermen (23,27,2). On paper, they look very solid.

Offseason losses: Starting MLB Courtney Vincent and backup MLB Antonio Clay (Clay may be back).

On offense, the only losses are on the OL and that will be the concern. They return Davis and Spiller for one last time and QB Harper. They also return their top 3 receivers. I expect the stats to maintain or improve (projection: 33 ppg, 160-170 rypg, 4-4.3 rypg, 255-285 pypg). Defensively, with the loss of Vincent, the real weak link is the LBs. Not only do they lack experience but they lack depth. They lose their top tackler but return 2 of their top 5. Teams will have to test the LBs and keep them off balance with a balanced attack. The front 4 look solid (projection: 18-20 ppg, 120 rypg, 3.2-3.4 ypc, 185-195 pypg allowed).

Florida St
2007 Closing PR: 85
2008 Pre-season PR: 89

FSU has had the same type of trip as Clemson the last few years. They start out between 88 and 91 before ending up in the mid-80s.

FSU returns 15 starters, a senior shitty QB, but only 36 lettermen (16,19,1). Young team.

Offseason losses: Starting LG Evan Bellamy and starting WR Preston Parker (susp. first 2 games).
Offseason adds: RB Bo Reliford.

FSU's losses are on the OL and depth has been an issue the last couple of years with many players leaving, graduating, or transferring. They return their starting center and LT but have to replace the rest. Otherwise, the same shitty offense returns for similar results (projection: 24-26 ppg, 130 rypg, 3.5 ypc, 240-250 pypg). On D, they will have to improve to keep the team in the game. They return their top tackler and 3 of the top 5. The skill and experience level looks to be distributed evenly and there are no glaring weaknesses. They should improve (projection: 19-20 ppg, 95-120 rypg, 2.9-3.3 ypc, 200-210 pypg allowed).

Wake Forest
2007 Closing PR: 87
2008 Pre-season PR: 89

On paper, this team should look like the 2006 version putting up just enough offense to win and the D keeping them in the game. Like them alot as a dog.

WF returns 14 starters, a 3rd year QB, bring in a new DC, and return 44 lettermen (18,24,2).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return just 5 starters, including QB Skinner and 1000 yd rusher Adams. However, they do lose 1000 yd receiver Moore and their #2. In addition, they lose their starting center and 2 other OL. Stats will drop (projection: 24-26 ppg, 145-160 rypg, 3.4-3.7 ypc, 170-180 pypg). On D, they return 9 including 9 of their top 10 tacklers. The defense looks stacked and the only area with any obvious weakness in experience is on the DL. However, I expect them to put up numbers very similar to 2006 (projection: 15-17 ppg, 100-110 rypg, 3.1-3.2 ypc, 215-230 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

Maryland
2007 Closing PR: 82
2008 Pre-season PR: 85

Terps return 13 starters, bring in QB Josh Portis, and return 46 lettermen (23,20,3). They have been another inconsistent performing team over the last 3 years.

No notable offseason losses.

On offense they bring in new VHT QB Portis, lose their top 2 rushers, and return their top 2 receivers. The OL looks big and solid. I expect some improvement on the offense with all the talent and Portis could succeed quickly (projection: 24-26 ppg, 125-135 rypg, 3.6-3.8 ypc, 200-220 pypg). On D, they only return 5 and lose their top tackler (but return 2 of their top 5). The LBs in this 3-4-4 system look to be the strength and there are questions particularly at DB (projection: 21-22 ppg, 140-150 rypg, 3.7-4 ypc, 210-225 pypg allowed).

Boston College
2007 Closing PR: 90
2008 Pre-season PR: 87

I started BC too low last year on my PR and I don't want to make the same mistake. Maybe I have them too high now.

BC returns just 10 starters, lose a first round draft QB and bring in a QB with only one start in the last 3 years, and 39 lettermen (15,22,2).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense the main concern is the QB. Expect much more focus on the running game. The OL also lost quite a bit of depth but BC recruits well at the position (projection: 24-26 ppg, 120-150 rypg, 3.7-3.9 ypc, 240-250 pypg). On D, they return just 4 starters but have more experience in their depth. The lose their top tackler (125!) but return 3 of their top 5. They also return their top 2 sack artists. They also bring back in SLB Brian Toal who was injured all last year. The concern is the DBs (projected 19-21 ppg, 90-110 rypg, 2.8-3.2 ypc, 240-260 pypg allowed).

NC State
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 82

Now in 2nd year of O'Brien's system and have been the victim of poor turnover ratios the last 2 years. However, they only return 10 starters and 28 lettermen (12,13,3). This is a VERY YOUNG team. They do bring in a 3 year QB.

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return their starting QB, top 3 rushers, and top receiver. The weakness appears to be on OL and they have shifted over 2 DL to add depth. I look for improved numbers in the 2nd year (projected: 24 ppg, 120-130 rypg, 3.3-3.5 ypc, 240-250 pypg). On D, the losses are heavier. They only return 4, lose their top 3 tacklers and 5 of their top 6. The biggest concerns on D are the LBs and safeties. They should improve, but only because last year's numbers were so bad (projected: 23-25 ppg, 150 rypg, 3.8 ypc, 190-210 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

Va Tech
2007 Closing PR: 96
2008 Pre-season PR: 92

I had them too high in the end and I thought they would beat KU. Also, VT only returns 10 starters, loses 1000 yd rusher Ore, loses their top 4 receivers, and benefitted greatly from TOs LY. They return 40 lettermen (21,18,1). I'm jumping on the UNC bandwagon and think that VT finishes 2nd in the division.

Offseason losses: Incoming QB Peter Rose and backup WR Brandon Dillard.

On offseason, Glennon returns for his last season of ineptitude and I expect the clamor for Taylor to grow. They do bring in some talented players at RB and WR and the OL is stacked--it was a weakness last year (projected: 28-30 ppg, 145-175 rypg, 3.6-4 ypc, 185-200 pypg). On, D, they return just 4 and lose their top 3 tacklers and is less experienced all the way around. The losses on DL are particularly bad and teams should run against them until they can prove they can stop it. Concern is front 7 (projection: 18-20 ppg, 115-125 rypg, 3.2-3.5 ypc, 210-230 pypg allowed).

UNC
2007 Closing PR: 80
2008 Pre-season PR: 88

Last year's weakness--youth and inexperience--is now a strength as they return 18 starters in Butch Davis' 2nd year and 2nd year of getting good recruits into Chapel Hill. They return their QB and 44 lettermen (19,24,1).

Offseason losses: Starting WLB Wesley Flagg.
Offseason adds: WR Dwight Jones.

On offense, I expect an improvement of nearly a TD a game. The group is much more experienced and brings in some young, talented recruits who could start. Only loss is at LG (projection: 27-29 ppg, 115-125 rypg, 3.5-3.7 ypc, 245-265 pypg). On D, they lose their top 2 tacklers (132, 59), but return almost everyone else from an evenly distributed defense. I like the D overall, but would have to point to the L as the potential weak link. I also expect their numbers to improve (projection: 21-23 ppg, 130-140 rypg, 3.3-3.5 ypc, 190-210 pypg allowed).

Miami
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 83

I expect yet another similar trip for Miami this year. They will be using a 2 QB system this year and go from having experience at the position to none. They return 11 starters in the 2nd year of Randy Shannon's tenure and 48 lettermen (19,28,1).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense they will be using a 2 QB system probably until someone emerges as the clear choice. This always sucks. They return their top 4 rushers but only their #2 receiver. On the OL, they have to replace the entire 3 inside. I expect the stats to improve, somewhat (projected: 22-24 ppg, 155-175 rypg, 3.5-3.8 ypc, 175-190 pypg). On D, they return 6 but lose their top 4 tacklers. The back 7 looks solid but the DL looks young, talented, and inexperienced. Look for improved numbers but the run defense is my concern (projection: 22-23 ppg, 115-125 rypg, 3 ypc, 185-195 pypg allowed).

Also, they move to Pro Player. Will that help? I don't think so. NFL stadiums suck (even worse than the old OB).

 

[gjl02]

i think u hit it on the head.. i just dont think weatherford is going to play as much as everyone thinks.. i say we almost play a 2 qb system.. ponder and dvontrey richardson are going to play alot to offset our terrible oline.. the oline is a serious question mark.. trickett maybe abe to work his magic as he did with our center and hudson.. but 1 injury and we are done.. tonga was a great add and i think will make us a ton better.. our receiving core is down right filthy if these guys can get the ball in space look out.. our dline is going to be the best dline we have had in 5 years they are going ot turn many heads..

getting through the 3rd game is going ot be tough as a few guys will still be out and wake plays that cheap ass blocking scheme

 

[RJ Esq]

Georgia Tech
2007 Closing PR: 84
2008 Pre-season PR: 81

It'll be interesting how quickly GT picks up the Paul Johnson triple option offense. I think it'll be a quicker turnaround than many suspect. Many of the pieces that did not fit have left. GT returns just 9 starters, brings in a number of freshmen QBs that could fit in the system, and 50 lettermen.

Remember, the Johnson offense is designed to win with players who are less talented and smaller than their opponents.

Notable offseason losses: Backup CB Jerrard Tarrant injured.

On offense, expect the passing numbers to drop significantly and the rushing numbers to go through the roof. The scoring may drop but not by much (projected: 22-25 ppg, 240-270 rypg, 4-4.3 ypc, 120-140 pypg). On D, they return just 4 and lose DC Tenuta. They also lose their top 4 tacklers. The obvious concern is the pass D and the back 7 (projection: 20-21 ppg, 100-115 rypg, 3-3.2 ypc, 200-220 pypg allowed).

Duke
2007 Closing PR: 67
2008 Pre-season PR: 76

Duke may have a very good year (for them) and Cutcliff is walking into the best situation possible at Duke with 17 starters returning, a 3rd year QB, and 50 lettermen (20,27,3).

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they return their starting QB, RB, and #1 WR. The primary losses are at WR and on OL (lose a LG and C). Expect greater stats and expect victories over lesser opponents (non-conf) (projection: 20-22 ppg, 100-130 rypg, 2.7-3.2 ypc, 200-220 pypg). On D, they return 10, including 7 of their top 9 tacklers. They are very experienced with 27 returning lettermen. On D, I sense improvement overall and the only question is at safety with a new starter. The LBs look to be the strength (projection: 28-30 ppg, 160-170 rypg, 4-4.2 ypc, 220-230 pypg allowed).

 

[RJ Esq]

Virginia
2007 Closing PR: 84
2008 Pre-season PR: 82

I'm not as high on Duke vs. Virginia. UVA had a great season last year due to its' strong D and playing in a weak offensive conference. They return 11 starters, bring in a new QB because Sewell was too dumb to return at QB in '08, but return just 31 lettermen. This is a VERY YOUNG team. Steele thinks they could have easily been 4-9 LY due to close wins. Maybe.

No notable offseason losses.

On offense, they bring in a new QB but return their top 2 RBs. The weakness will be at receiver where they lose their #1 and #3 options and at OL where they lose the entire inside 3. Honestly, they did not do too well on offense last year and I don't expect the drop off to be too much (projection: 20-22 ppg, 130-140 rypg, 3.6 ypc, 180-190 pypg). On D, they return 5 starters and their strength will be their LBs. The front 3 and back 4 will be the concerns. I expect the front 3 and the run defense to be the main concern (projection: 21-23 ppg, 120 rypg, 3.3 ypc, 220-230 pypg).

 

[Fried_Shrimp]

Good Thread As Always....

I see Georgia Tech having a very rough year. Even with the graduations, the Defense should be able to hang but their offense is going to be a fiasco. I read the Atlanta paper every day and have not seen one positive thing other than the reputation of Paul Johnson. Also they lost their stud punter who created a lot of field position last year.

Today's O/U prop bet is 5.5 +125 and I just grabbed some under.

 

[RJ Esq]

NC State
2007 Closing PR: 79
2008 Pre-season PR: 82 [Edit: 81]

Now in 2nd year of O'Brien's system and have been the victim of poor turnover ratios the last 2 years. However, they only return 10 starters and 28 lettermen (12,13,3). This is a VERY YOUNG team. They do bring in a 3 year QB.

No notable offseason losses. [Edit: Offseason losses: Starting WR and #1 receiver Donald Bowens]

On offense, they return their starting QB, top 3 rushers, and top receiver [Edit: no top receiver now]. The weakness appears to be on OL and they have shifted over 2 DL to add depth. I look for improved numbers in the 2nd year (projected: 24 ppg, 120-130 rypg, 3.3-3.5 ypc, 240-250 pypg). On D, the losses are heavier. They only return 4, lose their top 3 tacklers and 5 of their top 6. The biggest concerns on D are the LBs and safeties. They should improve, but only because last year's numbers were so bad (projected: 23-25 ppg, 150 rypg, 3.8 ypc, 190-210 pypg allowed).

I think this is worth a drop of a point.

 

[RJ Esq]

Lowered FSU to 88.

 

[RetroVK]

i actually have BC rated 4 points lower than you so we see that team pretty different.

your power rating threads are some of my favs.

talk to ya later rj.

 

[RJ Esq]

i actually have BC rated 4 points lower than you so we see that team pretty different.

your power rating threads are some of my favs.

talk to ya later rj.

Wow, you have BC at an 83? I think the starting PR could be somewhere in the middle like an 85 or 86 but I wouldn't start them out at 83 or 84.

I just think they will have too much talent pipelined into the program to drop that far off.

 

[RetroVK]

Wow, you have BC at an 83? I think the starting PR could be somewhere in the middle like an 85 or 86 but I wouldn't start them out at 83 or 84.

I just think they will have too much talent pipelined into the program to drop that far off.

i just think ryan pinpoint passing covered up a ton of their deficiencies last year. allowed them to do the short passing game which moved the chains and rested the defense.

 

[RJ Esq]

That's probably true. If you remember, Steele had them picked 2nd to last going into last year and they finished #2 in the ACC (?).