Teaser Strategies Discussion

[Zeke]

Wanted to throw this out there, see what sticks. I guess for starters I'll assume we're talking 6 or 7 pt teasers on sides, not totals. The obvious strategies, well their obvious....The Wong Teaser taking a 7 pt fave to a pick, crossing key numbers, -9.5 down to -2.5 or getting a team north of 10 or 17.

I wanted to see if anyone has done any digging into the profitability of teasing dogs in games with a low-lined total versus a high-lined total. Perfect example this weekend as there are several 3-pt lines.

1. KC to +10 at NE where the game is hovering a total of 60. They are anticipating a pt/minute or 15/Q.
2. Dal to +10 vs. Jax where the total is 40 where points are expected to be at a premium.

Take HF or the fact that Dallas sucks out of the equation here, these are just examples based on a high total versus low total. Seems reasonable that 6 or 7 pts doesn't mean as much when there are two high powered offenses who can score frequently. But when you have a game that is expected to be around 21-18 and 7 pts could be 1/3 of what the winning team scores, those teaser points look like gold.

Thoughts?

 

[2daBank]

Can’t really say the success rate but absolutely agree teasing dogs up on lower totaled games is a good strategy. Almost all my teasers include such a dog. Pretty much same theory as playing baseball dog rls in what look to be pitcher duels. Obviously more points/runs you expect the less valuable those points become.

Phins and titans would both fit this week along w Dallas. All defensive looking games and at home, home dogs been incredibly strong thus far..

 

[D-Woww]

the only issue that could exist is if the total is low its bc one or both teams is offensively challenged, so you run the risk of them putting up a single digit output.

I know this is square, but I like to tease favs. I do think there are insances where it is very clear that a team is going to win a game, just a matter of by how much. I always cross the key numbers and never cross 0

my favorite teaser hack that I have been preaching for a few years now is utilizing the option to leave a leg open. I think so many people lose their teasers when they have to search for a final leg to pair with a side they really like. just take the side you like, leave an open spot, and fill it next time you really like it.

ill be teasing Minnesota down to pk and leaving 2 open spots this week.

 

[2daBank]

I generally use 1 fav and one dog in my teasers, pretty much only do the 2 team 6 point variety (well besides 1 or 2 5-8 team type deals looking for nice fat hit) and almost always adhere to Wong taking a fav down under a fg and a small dog up over a touchdown.

 

[Zeke]

Just did some digging on my theory. A teased dog of +3 to +9 in games with totals of 42 or below has never failed to cover the +9 this year. In many instances they have won outright but there were a couple where you would've needed the teased points. Weeks 3 & 5 however there would've been nothing to pair them with using those guidelines.

 

[2daBank]

Just did some digging on my theory. A teased dog of +3 to +9 in games with totals of 42 or below has never failed to cover the +9 this year. In many instances they have won outright but there were a couple where you would've needed the teased points. Weeks 3 & 5 however there would've been nothing to pair them with using those guidelines.

I almost always play the short dog I tease on the ml, I look at the teaser as protection. I see very little sense in taking 3 or less so I play the ml and tease them up over a td.

 

[Zeke]

And then along comes the Giants offense to ruin what looked on paper (as they all do) to be a great 7-point teaser. Fuck Eli, man he sucks.

 

[RetroVK]

My friend has done analysis and the lower the totals have a higher win percentage than the higher totals. I am speaking of Wong teasers but not by as much as he expected.

It makes logical sense, in that each teased point is a higher percentage of total points scored.

It is also why you will find in recent years that Wong teasers have done so well in NFL preseason.

A few teaser tips:
1. The more key numbers a teaser crosses, the more valuable the teasers
2. Teasing totals is generally a bad practice
3. Teasing through the 0 is generally a bad practice
4. Not all shops pay the same odds on teasers
5. If you have access to teaser cards, you can also tease stale numbers

Good thread idea. Best of luck