Teams who lose a big game and the season after that game.

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Gyno

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It's almost the end of the regular season for college football and I'd like to mention something that myself and possibly others here can use in their handicapping next season.

It seems to me that certain teams regress badly after a close loss to a major team. Now when I say certain teams here are the teams that fit that criteria..

Teams who weren't ranked before the season
Teams who go on an unexpected run
Teams who are usually middle-tier in their conference


Here are my 3 examples:



Example #1
Northwestern

Won their first 4 games by 2 TDs or more. Were ranked higher than usual and a lot of people thought this could be their year. In their 5th game they played Ohio St and had the lead in that one late but Ohio St rallied and ended up winning. After that loss they were never the same.

After a loss like that you knew they would have a letdown the next week I picked up on the bad spot and made Wisky one of my plays of the year.. Wisky won 35-6.

I had no idea though that the letdown would continue all season.

They lost to Minny @ HOME, then to iowa and haven't won a game since.

That one loss to Ohio St screwed their whole season.

[/B]

Example #2
Oregon St

Oregon St, Mannion and Cooks were getting a lot of hype after winning 6 in a row and most of those wins were in impressive fashion. A lot of people thought they could beat Stanford. Line dropped like a rock with a lot of money coming in on OSU. This team was ranked and getting love they weren't used to getting.

Then come the game vs Stanford, a game they actually played well and almost won. But they didn't. They ended up losing 20-12 and were never the same after that.

The next week they were blown out by USC, 31-14 I made my worst wager of the season on OSU in that game.. Horrible spot.

Week after that killed by ASU. It was obvious Ore St was not the same but the real proof came last week when they lost 69-27..


Again just like NW, OSU was not the same after their loss to Stanford..



Example #3
Texas Tech

TT was a top ten team, they were 7-0 and everything was great over there. But then came the game vs Oklahoma, a game where they played well but came up just short. Again similar to NW and OSU their season crumbled.

3 straight losses, all blowouts.. They were never the same.
 
gonna have to argue that tt was never any good, their schedule was as soft as humanly possible, and it was a miracle they won vs the eers.
 
who are you arguing with? Not me, as I agree. TT was ranked 10th during that Oklahoma game..
 
maybe i shoulda said "insist", i'm arguing against the idea that tt fell apart after the OU game. If tt was never that good, and didn't deserve that ranking, then they didn't fall apart after the OU game. they just got exposed. no hangover, just a team that wasn't that good starting playing tougher opponents.
 
I strongly disagree with some of what you're saying. Although they were never deserving of a #10 ranking and yes they were vastly overrated they were definitely not the same team after that close loss to Oklahoma. They were buried three straight times after that oklahoma loss..

Prior to that they were 7-0 and a play or two away from beating the Sooners in Norman. If they beat the Sooners in Norman, I strongly believe they would of played better..
 
I dunno man, they were 7-0 and a play or two away from losing to the clones, the eers, and tcu.

3 wins versus SFA, TxSt, and Kansas.

They ran through the gauntlet starting with the OU game, think their schedule just caught up with em.

I just don't see how they would've learned how to stop the run if they beat ou.
 
I agree with that, they weren't going to be any good but I think they would of been more competitive in these last few..
 
I'd still avoid Texas this week. Assistant coaches are working on resumes and not necessarily the game plan. KK desperately needs this win over the (in theory) marquee program in the state to finish up the season in a positive fashion. Plenty of apathy here in Austin and there will be a lot of empties in the stadium. I'm missing my first home game in 16 years and couldn't get near face for good seats.

These are two mediocre teams. So what's going on between the ears? My gut says Tech will be interested in playing and up for the game. Texas? Could see a repeat of its disinterested mindset against TCU last Thanksgiving.
 
Miami falls into this. After playing hard against FSU for a half, the canes got rolled in the 2nd half. That game beat them again the next week against VT. And possibly even a little the next week against Duke.

Of course, losing Duke Johnson didn't help.
 
I never thought Miami was any good. They were a mediocre team that thought they were better then they were. FSU showed them how good they were. I guess you could be on to something there because they were completely demoralized. Duke, though, is just a better team. VT hangover possibly.
 
I have found your theory to be correct over the years, although I would modify it to say it includes losing any game of tremendous importance--a Broken Dreams loss--whether it occurs against a major power or not. A team starts thinking of conference titles or top 10 ranking or BCS title game, whatever looms as important to their goals, then when they lose it crushes their dream so badly they cannot regroup without what they once dreamed of before them.

It is a sure winner for handicappers. For years I lost money thinking such a loss would make teams mad and they would play even better the next week, but it has the opposite effect. A week of big time football practice is drudgery enough when you have something to play for. When you lose that it is almost impossible for a team to refocus. And it is even worse when you almost have the game won and lose it at the last minute. Northwestern is the perfect example.

To my mind, the blowout loss at home to Oklahoma State affected Texas Tech more than the Oklahoma game. They were still favored over Oklahoma State. And with Oregon State the fact they played their four toughest games may have played a part.

But those are minor quibbles. Your point is right on the money. Literally.

One of the best bets in college football is against the team that suffers a Broken Dreams loss and I always look at those games first.

Almost as good, as you well know, is betting against a team that has a lottery win. Especially if they are giving points on the road the next game.
 
No1Ranked said:
Miami falls into this. After playing hard against FSU for a half, the canes got rolled in the 2nd half. That game beat them again the next week against VT. And possibly even a little the next week against Duke.

Of course, losing Duke Johnson didn't help.
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Stole mine. It's been like this for years. Shocked it wasn't in the OP. They introduce the concept ... And The 'Canes are my 2nd fav college football team.
 
Skoalmint said:
I never thought Miami was any good. They were a mediocre team that thought they were better then they were. FSU showed them how good they were. I guess you could be on to something there because they were completely demoralized. Duke, though, is just a better team. VT hangover possibly.
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disagree about duke being a better team. Duke beat miami and VT, two teams that are better than them. That is college football for you. Duke probably has less than five kids that would start for the canes; and this isn't even a good canes team.

And if miami plays Duke before FSU, and of course with Duke Johnson healthy, it's a different story. But the canes would have lost to someone else in the post FSU/vt scenario.

duke has caught several breaks this year catching teams at the right time. Their luck runs out this week though. UNC takes them out.
 
In addition, FSU showed nothing about miami. FSU is rolling everyone including a much more dominating win at Clemson.
 
How about the Ducks after losing to Tree, i know they beat Utah but didnt grab the cash and basically were sleep walking through it, then got blasted by Zona, so a team that was basically covering every game now cant. And their players saying they had no interest in playing in the Rose Bowl. Leaving them off a ML parlay last week was my best bet of the year.
 
Oregon is a perfect example. All year they were aiming for the national title game and dreaming of being national champs.

They lost to Stanford and go back to practice Monday not even able to play for the conference title game. The Oregon player was telling the truth. Even the Rose Bowl is a disappointment when you spent 10 months preparing for the national title game.

Even when Stanford lost and they at least had a chance to play for the conference title they could not regain their emotional peak.

Few teams can recover from a Broken Dreams loss.
 
North Carolina is a solid team.. Much better than their record indicates..
 
Captbunch, in my opinion Baylor is a no-play this week. You either take TCU or pass.

This time last week all the talk was about when Baylor would pass Ohio State and when they did what would have to happen for them to make the national title game. Now they are a long shot to even win their conference, have to try and regroup and go on the road and cover against a tough team with a good defense, and they have the game they want to win more than any other the following week.

Baylor is the better team so it is possible they can do it, but teams in their position fail to do it 60% of the time ATS.
 
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No1Ranked said:
disagree about duke being a better team. Duke beat miami and VT, two teams that are better than them. That is college football for you. Duke probably has less than five kids that would start for the canes; and this isn't even a good canes team.

And if miami plays Duke before FSU, and of course with Duke Johnson healthy, it's a different story. But the canes would have lost to someone else in the post FSU/vt scenario.

duke has caught several breaks this year catching teams at the right time. Their luck runs out this week though. UNC takes them out.
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I didn't say Duke had better players. Duke is a better team. I don't agree Miami would have handled Duke pre-FSU beating. Miami was lucky at that point to be in the position they were. Sure, Duke has escaped a few games, but many teams escape games. In my opinion Morris is junk and they are lucky to have won as many games as they have with him taking snaps. I will be all over PITT this week.

And FSU did, in my opinion of course, show exactly what Miami was (is) just like they did with Clemson. Just like they've done with every team they have played.
 
Skoalmint said:
I didn't say Duke had better players. Duke is a better team. I don't agree Miami would have handled Duke pre-FSU beating. Miami was lucky at that point to be in the position they were. Sure, Duke has escaped a few games, but many teams escape games. In my opinion Morris is junk and they are lucky to have won as many games as they have with him taking snaps. I will be all over PITT this week.

And FSU did, in my opinion of course, show exactly what Miami was (is) just like they did with Clemson. Just like they've done with every team they have played.
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We will just have to disagree about Duke. My opinion, they are the 5th best team in the Coastal. That's college football for you, if they win this weekend, they win the coastal. If they lose they are part of a massive tie. In my mind, Miami, VT, GT and UNC are all better. We will see this week as I expect them to lose to UNC.

Not sure about your logic though. You say Miami was lucky to be where they were pre-FSU, but Duke escaped games, and teams do that. A bit of a double standard.

Not a fan of Morris, but still believe Miami is the better team. Of course not sure how Miami will do in the cold this weekend. Under Shannon, they did not handle the cold games well at all. Let's see if Golden has made a difference.

Also don't agree that FSU has shown us anything about any team they have played this year; other than they are much better than each of them. You don't learn anything from those games.
 
I expect them to lose at UNC as well. I've been riding the Tarheels for a while now. Very solid side.

No double standard. Lots of average teams escape a game or two throughout the year in any sport. Games that should not need escaping. Miami was lucky to be in the position they were in for the FSU game. In my opinion, Miami was lucky in way more games then they should have.

Its going to be cold in Pitt on Friday and when the sun goes down it will be a lot colder.

We can agree to disagree about the FSU games. I've learned plenty from whom they've beat up on. I've won money on/off their victims just based on education from the FSU games.

Good luck this week. I hate Pitt just need the cover, the city is great though.
 
I am not agreeing or disagreeing with the point of the thread because I haven't researched it but Northwestern is a bad example. They lost their two best players in the Wisconsin game and without them they just became a bad football team.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Captbunch, in my opinion Baylor is a no-play this week. You either take TCU or pass.

This time last week all the talk was about when Baylor would pass Ohio State and when they did what would have to happen for them to make the national title game. Now they are a long shot to even win their conference, have to try and regroup and go on the road and cover against a tough team with a good defense, and they have the game they want to win more than any other the following week.

Baylor is the better team so it is possible they can do it, but teams in their position fail to do it 60% of the time ATS.
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Agree. I am going to be on tcu. Baylors third straight game away from Waco, plus the let down factor. Plus tcu had the week off and Patterson can still coach defense.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Captbunch, in my opinion Baylor is a no-play this week. You either take TCU or pass.

This time last week all the talk was about when Baylor would pass Ohio State and when they did what would have to happen for them to make the national title game. Now they are a long shot to even win their conference, have to try and regroup and go on the road and cover against a tough team with a good defense, and they have the game they want to win more than any other the following week.

Baylor is the better team so it is possible they can do it, but teams in their position fail to do it 60% of the time ATS.
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Agree with the sentiment in this thread, and even in this post...but, do you have proof of this 60% failure rate ATS? No need to throw out fake numbers to support a point. If you do have the proof, I'd love to see it as I'm sure others would...it could be valuable.
 
VK said:
I am not agreeing or disagreeing with the point of the thread because I haven't researched it but Northwestern is a bad example. They lost their two best players in the Wisconsin game and without them they just became a bad football team.
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LOL you were all over NW +10.5 when they played Wisconsin the week after the Ohio St game.. You sure about that bad example?

Injuries are part of the game, they haven't won since that Ohio St game. Coach Fitz admitted team was down after Nebraska game.

How about the other two examples I mentioned?
 
Those are stats from my data base, Lareux,and cover the last 12 years, dating from the day I got tired of losing money expecting teams to be mad because the lost and come roaring back. Even cursory research over the previous few years showed I was dead wrong, that the opposite was true.

There is no way to keep an official stat on it because there is no official definition of what constitutes a Broken Dreams loss. The definition I use is a game where one team starts the season with high goals and aspirations that builds during the season, usually aiming at a particular game, and sees those dreams crushed with a loss that leaves no chance for them to achieve those goals.

You can use your own definition, but by any definition it happens several times a year, sometimes every week for several weeks in a row. Coaches know the situation well and constantly warn a team, "don't let those guys beat you twice, get your heads back in the game for this week."

In my database it has happened 91 times in 12 years with the losing team going 36-53-2 ATS the following week.

I hadn't considered Gyno's premise--that the malaise extends through subsequent games--but it makes sense to me and I am going to research it when the season is over.
 
I have a really good memory, I will bring up this discussion next season and we will keep an eye on it.
 
You have probably already considered it, Gyno, but there is solid proof of your theory that a loss can influence more than one game--the losing team in the Super Bowl. That game is so big, and the loss so crushing, that it ruins the entire FOLLOWING season for virtually every team that has lost one.

There's the other side to that psychological coin too. A lottery Win is almost as bad for a college team trying to cover a spread as a Broken Dreams loss.

Young guys have the same problems dealing with achieving success as they do with a crushing loss. The percentage is not quite as one sided, but still big enough to lose a lot of money if you are not aware of it.

The perfect example is the biggest bet I won last year--in fact the biggest bet I have made in four years. UCLA won the biggest game in the lives of any player on the team last year when they beat USC and won the Pac 10 South in the bargain. Then they had to play a meaningless game against Stanford to end the season. Then, the week after that, play in the Pac 10 title game. There was no way UCLA was going to do anything but come out flat

To make it even better, Stanford had to win to make the title game. That was as close as you can come to a guaranteed win.

Stanford had to lay 3, but covered with ease 35-17 and called off the dogs by the middle of the third quarter.
 
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gynecologist said:
LOL you were all over NW +10.5 when they played Wisconsin the week after the Ohio St game.. You sure about that bad example?

Injuries are part of the game, they haven't won since that Ohio St game. Coach Fitz admitted team was down after Nebraska game.

How about the other two examples I mentioned?
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They lost their two best players in the first half. Don't be intentionally obtuse. While, in retrospect, I think it was a weak bet by me, it is impossible to tell when they end up playing the majority of the game with no colter and no mack.

In any event, it is a horrible example of a team collapsing because of a big loss ... because the injuries are why they collapsed.
 
and not dissing the theory .. just saying ... also .. I was never high on northwestern hence the season wins under 7 bet ...
 
And when describing that rsw bet win .... I described it in reality .. it won easily because of injury .. not because they lost a game to ohio state when ohio state played horribly.
 
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