TCU vs. Texas: NCAAF Week 5 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 3, 2020 at Darrell K. Royal - Texas Memorial Stadium/Jamail Field.
History
The doubts that are directed against TCU’s defense emanate from specious logic.
Doubters say that we should worry about TCU’s defense because it surrendered 37 points last week to Iowa State.
They then try to substantiate their doubt by pointing to the defense’s offseason losses.
But they do not mention that the Frogs gave up even more points — 49 — last year to Iowa State.
So what we have here in their defense is not a problem generated by irreplaceable personnel losses, but rather a problem with Iowa State.
In contrast, Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs love to play Texas tough.
They currently enjoy a 5-1 SU and ATS run against Texas and some of those wins and covers were even blowouts.
Moreover, I want to point out that we should still expect a lot from TCU’s defense.
Texas Pass Attack vs. TCU Pass Defense
Before I bet on a team that is heavily favored, I want to feel assured that it will comfortably move the ball downfield.
Despite their effort against Texas Tech — which almost had the country’s worst pass defense last year — Texas wide receivers still have a lot to prove.
During the offseason, Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson departed. Duvernay was easily the most relied upon pass-catcher last year for Texas. He accrued 74 more receptions, 864 yards, and three more touchdowns than Texas’ leading returning receiver.
Johnson, too, was important as someone who has the fifth-most receptions in Longhorn history.
Texas’ group of young receivers will contend with a Horned Frog secondary that remains formidable.
For example, Noah Daniels proved a positive surprise against Iowa State as he ultimately compelled Brock Purdy to stop targeting the receiver that he was covering.
Fellow cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson appeared in every game last season and was typically listed as second on the depth chart at cornerback.
After becoming a rare starter as a true freshman in 2018, Keeyon Stewart promises to bounce back after injuries derailed his 2019 campaign.
Stewart was still a noticeable part of the effort that TCU produced last year in order to limit Longhorn quarterback Sam Ehlinger to his worst game of the season — in Texas’ 37-27 loss to TCU — as measured by his season-low in completion percentage and season-high in interceptions.
Based on the same criteria, Ehlinger’s toughest opponent in his career is arguably Gary Patterson’s TCU. In earlier years, Ehlinger even benefitted from having stud playmakers like the now departed Duvernay.
TCU Pass Attack vs. Texas Pass Defense
After ranking 125th in pass defense last year (barely better than Texas Tech) and giving up 331 passing yards plus five touchdowns to Red Raider quarterback Alan Bowman, Texas still looks vulnerable in its secondary, particularly at the cornerback position.
If TCU had started quarterback Max Duggan in the first half last week, then TCU may have won.
Duggan had his breakout performance last season against these Longhorns. In this game, he accrued 273 passing yards and two touchdowns to one interception while completing 70 percent of his passes.
Duggan is sort of like his counterpart Sam Ehlinger in that he will occasionally flex his dangerousness as a runner, outside of the pocket, and isn’t afraid to take hits.
More importantly, he showed in that Texas game his comfort in locating holes in coverage and his stellar accuracy downfield.
TCU enjoys a ton of returning options at wide receiver with which it can continue exploiting Texas’ cornerbacks.
As evidenced by their average YPC, many also showcase big-play ability that Duggan can underscore with his accurate deep ball.
All-Big 12 Honorable Mention Taye Barber leads TCU’s pass-catching corps currently. One strength of his is his body control and body adjustment at the point of attack.
The Verdict
Ehlinger does not possess the firepower either in himself or in his still-young receiving crew to navigate TCU’s underrated secondary. Gary Patterson’s defense will still give him nightmares.
One may suggest that Texas can lean on its running game. The biggest doubt that one can have in the Frogs’ defense is its run defense given its performance against Iowa State.
But again, Iowa State also ran well (189 yards on 5.1 YPC) against these Frogs last year while they ranked 38th nationally in run defense. The Frogs are not weak defensively. They are merely weak against the Cyclones, as history shows.
With multiple guys in the defensive line who possess All-Big 12 accolades and with nice depth in the form of multiple big guys in the interior, the Frogs’ run defense remains stable.
On the other side, Duggan is building off the chemistry that he already enjoys with a deep pass-catching crew. He is an accurate, big-armed, and otherwise dangerous weapon that Texas’ fragile cornerbacks won’t contain.
Best Bet: Horned Frogs +13 (-105) with Heritage
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 3, 2020 at Darrell K. Royal - Texas Memorial Stadium/Jamail Field.
History
The doubts that are directed against TCU’s defense emanate from specious logic.
Doubters say that we should worry about TCU’s defense because it surrendered 37 points last week to Iowa State.
They then try to substantiate their doubt by pointing to the defense’s offseason losses.
But they do not mention that the Frogs gave up even more points — 49 — last year to Iowa State.
So what we have here in their defense is not a problem generated by irreplaceable personnel losses, but rather a problem with Iowa State.
In contrast, Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs love to play Texas tough.
They currently enjoy a 5-1 SU and ATS run against Texas and some of those wins and covers were even blowouts.
Moreover, I want to point out that we should still expect a lot from TCU’s defense.
Texas Pass Attack vs. TCU Pass Defense
Before I bet on a team that is heavily favored, I want to feel assured that it will comfortably move the ball downfield.
Despite their effort against Texas Tech — which almost had the country’s worst pass defense last year — Texas wide receivers still have a lot to prove.
During the offseason, Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson departed. Duvernay was easily the most relied upon pass-catcher last year for Texas. He accrued 74 more receptions, 864 yards, and three more touchdowns than Texas’ leading returning receiver.
Johnson, too, was important as someone who has the fifth-most receptions in Longhorn history.
Texas’ group of young receivers will contend with a Horned Frog secondary that remains formidable.
For example, Noah Daniels proved a positive surprise against Iowa State as he ultimately compelled Brock Purdy to stop targeting the receiver that he was covering.
Fellow cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson appeared in every game last season and was typically listed as second on the depth chart at cornerback.
After becoming a rare starter as a true freshman in 2018, Keeyon Stewart promises to bounce back after injuries derailed his 2019 campaign.
Stewart was still a noticeable part of the effort that TCU produced last year in order to limit Longhorn quarterback Sam Ehlinger to his worst game of the season — in Texas’ 37-27 loss to TCU — as measured by his season-low in completion percentage and season-high in interceptions.
Based on the same criteria, Ehlinger’s toughest opponent in his career is arguably Gary Patterson’s TCU. In earlier years, Ehlinger even benefitted from having stud playmakers like the now departed Duvernay.
TCU Pass Attack vs. Texas Pass Defense
After ranking 125th in pass defense last year (barely better than Texas Tech) and giving up 331 passing yards plus five touchdowns to Red Raider quarterback Alan Bowman, Texas still looks vulnerable in its secondary, particularly at the cornerback position.
If TCU had started quarterback Max Duggan in the first half last week, then TCU may have won.
Duggan had his breakout performance last season against these Longhorns. In this game, he accrued 273 passing yards and two touchdowns to one interception while completing 70 percent of his passes.
Duggan is sort of like his counterpart Sam Ehlinger in that he will occasionally flex his dangerousness as a runner, outside of the pocket, and isn’t afraid to take hits.
More importantly, he showed in that Texas game his comfort in locating holes in coverage and his stellar accuracy downfield.
TCU enjoys a ton of returning options at wide receiver with which it can continue exploiting Texas’ cornerbacks.
As evidenced by their average YPC, many also showcase big-play ability that Duggan can underscore with his accurate deep ball.
All-Big 12 Honorable Mention Taye Barber leads TCU’s pass-catching corps currently. One strength of his is his body control and body adjustment at the point of attack.
The Verdict
Ehlinger does not possess the firepower either in himself or in his still-young receiving crew to navigate TCU’s underrated secondary. Gary Patterson’s defense will still give him nightmares.
One may suggest that Texas can lean on its running game. The biggest doubt that one can have in the Frogs’ defense is its run defense given its performance against Iowa State.
But again, Iowa State also ran well (189 yards on 5.1 YPC) against these Frogs last year while they ranked 38th nationally in run defense. The Frogs are not weak defensively. They are merely weak against the Cyclones, as history shows.
With multiple guys in the defensive line who possess All-Big 12 accolades and with nice depth in the form of multiple big guys in the interior, the Frogs’ run defense remains stable.
On the other side, Duggan is building off the chemistry that he already enjoys with a deep pass-catching crew. He is an accurate, big-armed, and otherwise dangerous weapon that Texas’ fragile cornerbacks won’t contain.
Best Bet: Horned Frogs +13 (-105) with Heritage
