TB-LAA Series

HereWeGo

HereWeGo

Pretty much a regular
Rarely post my own threads in here, but I wanted to get your guys opinion on a TB-LAA series bet. Currently the price is LAA -150 and I'm thinking about biting. Things I'm taking into consideration:

Home/Away Records: LAA currently sits @ 18-13, TB @ 13-16.
  • LAA hasn't lost a 3-game series since the opening week of the season vs. TX. TB has been pretty impressive on the road, winning 3-game sets @ BAL, TOR, OAK, and TEX, but none have these series wins have come back to back. Keep in mind though that these wins came with all personnel intact, which brings us to our next point....
Team Morale:
  • LAA lost a tough one yesterday on the Ellis GS walkoff in extras, snapping their 7-game winning streak. Coming home after a 5-1 road trip
  • TB is in the midst of a 9 game cross country road trip that took them from BOS to Arlington, and now to Orange County.TB lost a chance @ a series sweep in TX late yesterday afternoon. Temps were hovering in the 90's-100's all weekend, combined with the 3 hour flight into So-Cal last night which may have an effect on bodies. Garza/Navarro went at it, just days after that showing of "team unity" in that brawl up in Fenway. Speaking of the brawl....Aki, Crawford, Gomes, and Shields have all either began or are ready to begin serving various stages of their suspensions. Pena is on the DL as well.
Pitching matchups:
  • Tonight: E-Jax v Joe Saunders
  • Tomorrow: Shields (? - suspension) v Jered Weaver
  • Wed: Kaz v John Lackey
Probably the best thing about Series bets is that it gives you a little wiggle room just in case your team drops that 1st game to start hedging out during games 2-3. Also, I didn't mention that maybe there's a slight look-ahead factor to this weekend's IL series @ home against the in-state Marlins, which I'm sure Baseball Tonight and the rest of the talking heads will build up as the "Battle of the Teams that Aren't Supposed to Be Here."

At -150 the price does look a little "trappish" and reflective of the 2008 Rays playing good baseball. But all those lines in Fenway last week looked like traps as well and we all know what happened. Their history in Anaheim (0-8 last 2 years, 5-29 since 2000) is just as dismal as Fenway and I'm hoping that history again, repeats itself.

Thoughts?....
 
There is no trap here. Angels play a cohesive style of ball where the rays try to battle ram you to death with aggressive offense. The shove match with Garza and Navarro yesterday just perpetuate this point. In my honest opinion, you have the LAA top 3 pitchers in those 3 matchups you listed. Yes, I believe that Jer Weaver is better then Ervin Santana. James shields has also begun to serve his 6 game suspension so he will not be available unless they slot him into a tail end game, which would throw off the rotation's rest. Who are they going to pitch, sonnanstine?

I really wouldnt take to heart what happens between the Angels and A's. Their rivalry is fierce and the games will always be close based simply on the principle of pride. Izturis is hitting and kendrick is a solid batter that can square up better then arguably anyone in the league. I would not be surprised at all with a sweep here as I see kaz as the only issue here who is going against a dialed in lights out pitcher in Lackey. Yeah, Saunders is a LHP, but if you've ever seen how competitive he is, I wouldn't worry too much. The weather is warm in LA and scoring really should not be the issue.

I think the rays flaws are simple. They are too heavy on the LHB and a lack a power hitting right hander in the 4/5 slot. They also need more depth in their pitching as Kaz and Shields are the only one's where you know what you're going to get. The most probable outcome is Angels win 2 games, losing either game 1 or game 3. Just my .02
 
Thanks for the feedback from down there (I'm in NorCal) Blue, always liked hearing your thoughts on your Bruins during CBB season. Hopefully Joe gets the win tonight and TB makes a spot starter call-up from AAA to take Shields spot in the rotation. Gotta love how the TB pen was involved inn the game in the 6th and 5th the past 2 games in TX as well.
 
I don't think Carl Crawford is completely healthy and the loss of Pena is huge.
Advantage for LAA in lineup, bullpen, starting pitcher and manager tonight. Price seems right for a team getting healthy and at home.
TB going from Boston-after a brawl then taking 2 of 3 in Texas then cross country to LA....tough stretch imo
 
HWG-

Playing against Tampa Bay is in my 5 run system beginning tonight.

6/6 win 12-4
6/7 skip
6/8 skip
6/9 Play against TB gm 1
Bet on Angels

Since 5/7 I am 42-1 +37.29 units

gm 1 25
gm 2 12
gm 3 2
gm 4 3
gm 5 1

GL-



.
 
Last edited:
I want to pull the trigger on the angels tonight, but im scared of their lhb heavy front end of the lineup. Only seen saunders once, but the only guys to hit him were lhb. I guess it's a lineup decesion for me.
 
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>A. Iwamura 2b</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.272</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>J. Ruggiano cf</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.294</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>C. Crawford lf</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.266</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>B.J. Upton dh</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.301</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>E. Longoria 3b</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.245</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>W. Aybar 1b</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.289</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>D. Navarro c</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.333</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left>G. Gross rf</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.244</TD><TD width=9></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left>J. Bartlett ss</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>.239</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Yep, game over. A lot of smoke signals concerning the suspensions as well, as Iwamura and Crawford have chosen to appeal with their hearings set for later this month. Also, Shields will be starting tomorrow night and then begin serving his suspension on Wednesday. Shit, may need to start hedging out.
 
yeha, saunders got rattled up by the lhp for sure in that lineup. Couldnt find his consistency in pitching. Next two days should be a lot better.. Might want to consider a hedge when the angels win tomorrow though. At least I think they do..
 
HereWeGo said:
Yep, game over. A lot of smoke signals concerning the suspensions as well, as Iwamura and Crawford have chosen to appeal with their hearings set for later this month. Also, Shields will be starting tomorrow night and then begin serving his suspension on Wednesday. Shit, may need to start hedging out.
Click to expand...

If anything though the travel will probably hit them more tmrw . Not even sure how Weaver is vs TB but I thought LAA would be flat here after the xtra inning loss which drained some of its pen (Shields and Spier) especially with K-Rod and Arrendondo pitching like every day recently 5 of 6 before the day off yesterday. Also thought TB is better off facing LHP with Pena out since he was a black hole in the middle vs LHP.

I think you were right this game smelled funny . I mean to open LAA -135 with the best record in the AL vs a TB with bad history there and poor travel history. The Boston series at least it could be sold as the battle for 1st place and Ortiz was freshly out .

I looked this game up and down and on paper it wreaked off of LAA and under . So I couldnt understand anything about this line and decided to trust myself and play a bunch of shit like : TB 1st to Score , 1st 5 inn over 4.5 , over 8.5 , TB +1.5 and TB ML. Some plays were small like 1/2 and 3/4 units and some where 1.5 units like the total plays and TB +1.5 RL. Just happy Iactually trusted myself even if I didnt pound it .

So what I am saying is dont just jump ship because of Game 1 its probably what the books are hoping for . Jackson wasnt very good @ Fenway but think his other road starts were okay and Shields hasnt done much on the road . Also LAA had this huge streak of not scoring more then 5 runs so they werent hitting much just getting real good pitching . Here they didnt and it made all the differnce.

Not sure what game 3 is but if LAA was opened -135 here and is -120 tmrw then -150 sounds fair . Howver they will have to hit to continue there streak of winning series and Vlad at least did well. Good sign.

Just saying do some work before you bail on your play . If LAA wins you can hedge in game 3 . If LAA loses game 2 well it could set up a nice spot for LAA in Game 3..:shake:
 
HereWeGo said:
Thanks for the feedback SN, always appreciate your thoughts and writeups bud.
Click to expand...

Sure no prob. Got in late after BBall and was starting to type why I liked TB and over but I got supersitious and erased it because it went OTB before I could submit my response . Just tried to reiterate what you felt heading in...

:cheers:
 
Right on True, first big hit for me this baseball season, feels good!! I know you were watching, so was Kaz as untouchable as he looked on MLB.com? Seemed like he was mowin for the first 5 innings. Nice to see Lackey settle down after that rough 1st.
 
kaz was absolutely butt raping the lineup. All of his balls had movement and were being popped up at best. He left a low fastball hanging over the plate and Matthews slammed it. That was his only mistake the first 5 innings. After that, he got hit a little bit with some single gappers and a double that kotchman barely made over the 1b's head. If cousins wasnt such a homer, angels probably would have lost. He called a ball that was really close, then called another ball successively that scraped the plate to give willits who hits .179 a BB. Maddon got thrown out arguing it and I cant blame him, considering it was 3-2 and made the bases loaded against the guy with the worst batting average in the 9. Izturis was lucky to be able to pull the ball in that single, it was him and cousins that won the game essentially. Kaz was really pissed off but stayed in the dugout, lucky or him. Could've gone either way. anyway, nice hit, enjoy it.
 
That was one hell of a ball game! Kasmir came apart when Willits drew that walk after 10 pitches.

Nice to see you cash HWG..

money;




.
 
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