MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets of the Day
Rays vs Astros
Thursday, October 10 2019 at 7:07 p.m. ET (FS1) at Minute Maid Park
If you want to bet on Houston because you think that the heavily favored Astros are a lock to win at home, then you need to do some rethinking.
Tonight’s key trend is that the road team has won Game 5 of a five-game series 11 times in a row. So far this postseason, this trend is 2-0 as the Cardinals routed Atlanta and Washington upset the Dodgers.
You may still be set on Houston because Gerrit Cole is pitching. He boasted a 2.50 ERA during the regular season and shut down Tampa Bay’s lineup in Game 1. This is why watching games without reflection can be harmful to your wagers — if you saw Cole pitch in Game 1, the impression that he made might make it hard for you to be comfortable going against him.
Instinctively, I had the same worry as a Cardinals fan after seeing Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz throw a gem against them. But in the second time around, going against the same lineup in Atlanta, Folty couldn’t even make it out of the first inning.
I’m not saying that Cole will give up six runs in a third of an inning. But the reality is that match-up details and history go out the window when a pitcher has to see the same lineup for a second consecutive start.
Lineups adjust in that they figure out what a pitcher is doing in order to find success against them and they find ways to reverse that success. I don’t have the objective numbers to back this up, but I look at pitcher’s game logs for every article and I’ve found it to be an extremely common occurrence that a pitcher’s second consecutive outing against the same lineup goes exactly opposite to how it went the first time.
Cole himself has made the same experience. Once in his career he had to pitch against the same lineup twice in a row. On August 26 of 2017, he pitched seven shutout innings in Cincinnati. On September 1 of 2017, in his next start, he conceded five runs to the same lineup at home (in Pittsburgh).
Of course, some pitchers are better than others at this repetition. In Tyler Glasnow’s short career, he’s constructed a successful history in this situation. This season, he started two consecutive times against Boston’s high-caliber lineup. On April 21, he allowed two runs in 5.1 innings at home. On April 28, he did even better, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings in Boston’s Fenway Park.
Last year, Glasnow faced Toronto twice in a row, allowing three runs in six innings the first time and then three runs in 5.1 innings the second.
Supporting Glasnow in relief is the MLB’s best bullpen, which during the regular season yielded a collective 3.71 ERA.
In terms of hitters, Tampa Bay has in its last two games lit up Zack Greinke and accrued four runs in 3.2 innings against future lock for the Hall-of-Fame Justin Verlander. Look out for Tommy Pham, who’s batting .429 so far in October. Avisail Garcia is also hot, hitting .353 in this month.
This spot is tough for Houston as the favored team at home. The pressure is on Astro shoulders while Tampa Bay comes in with nothing to lose and history on its side.
I’m stoked by the plus money offered for the extra run. So i’ll happily invest one unit in Tampa Bay +1.5 and sprinkle some more on the Tampa Bay ML.
Best Bets: Tampa Bay run-line (+125) at 5Dimes and Tampa Bay money-line (+255) at BetOnline
Rays vs Astros
Thursday, October 10 2019 at 7:07 p.m. ET (FS1) at Minute Maid Park
If you want to bet on Houston because you think that the heavily favored Astros are a lock to win at home, then you need to do some rethinking.
Tonight’s key trend is that the road team has won Game 5 of a five-game series 11 times in a row. So far this postseason, this trend is 2-0 as the Cardinals routed Atlanta and Washington upset the Dodgers.
You may still be set on Houston because Gerrit Cole is pitching. He boasted a 2.50 ERA during the regular season and shut down Tampa Bay’s lineup in Game 1. This is why watching games without reflection can be harmful to your wagers — if you saw Cole pitch in Game 1, the impression that he made might make it hard for you to be comfortable going against him.
Instinctively, I had the same worry as a Cardinals fan after seeing Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz throw a gem against them. But in the second time around, going against the same lineup in Atlanta, Folty couldn’t even make it out of the first inning.
I’m not saying that Cole will give up six runs in a third of an inning. But the reality is that match-up details and history go out the window when a pitcher has to see the same lineup for a second consecutive start.
Lineups adjust in that they figure out what a pitcher is doing in order to find success against them and they find ways to reverse that success. I don’t have the objective numbers to back this up, but I look at pitcher’s game logs for every article and I’ve found it to be an extremely common occurrence that a pitcher’s second consecutive outing against the same lineup goes exactly opposite to how it went the first time.
Cole himself has made the same experience. Once in his career he had to pitch against the same lineup twice in a row. On August 26 of 2017, he pitched seven shutout innings in Cincinnati. On September 1 of 2017, in his next start, he conceded five runs to the same lineup at home (in Pittsburgh).
Of course, some pitchers are better than others at this repetition. In Tyler Glasnow’s short career, he’s constructed a successful history in this situation. This season, he started two consecutive times against Boston’s high-caliber lineup. On April 21, he allowed two runs in 5.1 innings at home. On April 28, he did even better, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings in Boston’s Fenway Park.
Last year, Glasnow faced Toronto twice in a row, allowing three runs in six innings the first time and then three runs in 5.1 innings the second.
Supporting Glasnow in relief is the MLB’s best bullpen, which during the regular season yielded a collective 3.71 ERA.
In terms of hitters, Tampa Bay has in its last two games lit up Zack Greinke and accrued four runs in 3.2 innings against future lock for the Hall-of-Fame Justin Verlander. Look out for Tommy Pham, who’s batting .429 so far in October. Avisail Garcia is also hot, hitting .353 in this month.
This spot is tough for Houston as the favored team at home. The pressure is on Astro shoulders while Tampa Bay comes in with nothing to lose and history on its side.
I’m stoked by the plus money offered for the extra run. So i’ll happily invest one unit in Tampa Bay +1.5 and sprinkle some more on the Tampa Bay ML.
Best Bets: Tampa Bay run-line (+125) at 5Dimes and Tampa Bay money-line (+255) at BetOnline
). Back when I was at my peak and hitting 365 5-6 times that was fairly impressive I guess. I could get 405 once which was always my goal. Just a shame I never took it serious until I got locked up. Lol.
