Rays vs. Astros ALCS Game 3: MLB Best Bets
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 8:40 p.m. ET (TBS) at Petco Park in San Diego
Ryan Yarbrough
Ryan Yarbrough starts today for Tampa Bay.
Yarbrough has three pitches that he can rely on a lot, which is what you want to see from a starting pitcher. A starting pitcher wants more quality pitches in order to avoid being figured out by the opposing lineup.
He throws his cutter, change-up, and sinker with between 23 and 36 percent frequency.
Against right-handed batters, specifically, he favors his change-up. With its off-speed quality, the change-up is a classic weapon for pitchers against opposite-handed batters — Yarbrough is a southpaw.
Opponents hit .215 against this pitch.
Yarbrough’s change-up features a nice change of pace relative to his fastball by averaging eight fewer mph. It has strong horizontal movement.
Perhaps most importantly, he locates this pitch extremely well.
60 percent of its strike locations are along a border of the strike zone.
It is so rare for this pitch to land in the middle parts of the plate that batters must be surprised when this happens.
Either way, batters usually make soft contact with this pitch and beat it into the ground. The change-up is Yarbrough’s favorite ground ball-inducing pitch by percentage.
In terms of balance, Yarbrough loves to throw his sinker against both lefties and righties.
Opponents rarely do any serious damage with this pitch as they slug .297 against it.
Like his change-up, Yarbrough’s sinker features strong lateral motion and consistent borderline location.
For good extra measure, Yarbrough’s curveball is his best pitch in terms of opposing BA. When he busts it out, that is. Opponents hit .150 against it.
His curveball is distinct with its very high spin rate. Spin deceives batters as to a pitch’s location. So it’s common for them to whiff against his curveball, which owns a 40 percent whiff rate.
Yarbrough vs. Astro Batters
Yarbrough matches up superbly with Houston batters. They rank 28th in slugging .353 against his three favorite pitches from lefties combined.
Plus, Yarbrough shows excellent form, having allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three outings lasting five or more innings.
In 47 at-bats, current Astro batters hit .213 and slug .362 against him.
Expect, for example, George Springer and Michael Brantley to struggle. Both are combined 1-for-14 with five strikeouts when facing the Tampa southpaw.
Jose Urquidy
Urquidy differs from Yarbrough in that he relies more heavily on a single pitch. But he throws this pitch extremely well.
He offers his fastball with 54 percent frequency, which is smart because opponents hit .216 against it.
This pitch possesses a healthy amount of spin and nice arm-side fade.
Spin is helpful for Urquidy’s fastball because he likes to locate it in the upper regions of the strike zone. This location gives his pitch the appearance of rising action, thereby inducing batters to swing underneath it.
His change-up, which is his second-favorite pitch by usage percentage, has even stronger arm-side action.
Pitching charts also illustrate its more probable placement along the borders of the strike zone.
Opponents hit .172 against it. He’ll emphasize this pitch especially against left-handed batters.
Urquidy vs. Tampa Bay Batters
Like his counterpart, Urquidy enjoys reliable form.
In five of his last six starts, he’s allowed two runs or fewer.
He’ll continue this tendency against a Tampa Bay squad that matches up with him poorly.
The Rays rank 22nd in slugging against his two favorite pitches — his fastball and change-up combine to compose 75 percent of his arsenal — from righties.
Also, Tampa Bay batters do not show any positive form themselves overall.
In three of their past four games, they’ve produced two runs or fewer. They have accumulated nine runs in their past four games combined.
Ji-Man Choi, for example, is cold right now. He has one hit in his last 10 at-bats with three strikeouts.
The Verdict
Expect a pitcher’s duel here with both pitchers enjoying good match-ups.
Because I want to focus on each starting pitcher, I want to make this a first-half play.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 (-105) with Heritage
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 8:40 p.m. ET (TBS) at Petco Park in San Diego
Ryan Yarbrough
Ryan Yarbrough starts today for Tampa Bay.
Yarbrough has three pitches that he can rely on a lot, which is what you want to see from a starting pitcher. A starting pitcher wants more quality pitches in order to avoid being figured out by the opposing lineup.
He throws his cutter, change-up, and sinker with between 23 and 36 percent frequency.
Against right-handed batters, specifically, he favors his change-up. With its off-speed quality, the change-up is a classic weapon for pitchers against opposite-handed batters — Yarbrough is a southpaw.
Opponents hit .215 against this pitch.
Yarbrough’s change-up features a nice change of pace relative to his fastball by averaging eight fewer mph. It has strong horizontal movement.
Perhaps most importantly, he locates this pitch extremely well.
60 percent of its strike locations are along a border of the strike zone.
It is so rare for this pitch to land in the middle parts of the plate that batters must be surprised when this happens.
Either way, batters usually make soft contact with this pitch and beat it into the ground. The change-up is Yarbrough’s favorite ground ball-inducing pitch by percentage.
In terms of balance, Yarbrough loves to throw his sinker against both lefties and righties.
Opponents rarely do any serious damage with this pitch as they slug .297 against it.
Like his change-up, Yarbrough’s sinker features strong lateral motion and consistent borderline location.
For good extra measure, Yarbrough’s curveball is his best pitch in terms of opposing BA. When he busts it out, that is. Opponents hit .150 against it.
His curveball is distinct with its very high spin rate. Spin deceives batters as to a pitch’s location. So it’s common for them to whiff against his curveball, which owns a 40 percent whiff rate.
Yarbrough vs. Astro Batters
Yarbrough matches up superbly with Houston batters. They rank 28th in slugging .353 against his three favorite pitches from lefties combined.
Plus, Yarbrough shows excellent form, having allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three outings lasting five or more innings.
In 47 at-bats, current Astro batters hit .213 and slug .362 against him.
Expect, for example, George Springer and Michael Brantley to struggle. Both are combined 1-for-14 with five strikeouts when facing the Tampa southpaw.
Jose Urquidy
Urquidy differs from Yarbrough in that he relies more heavily on a single pitch. But he throws this pitch extremely well.
He offers his fastball with 54 percent frequency, which is smart because opponents hit .216 against it.
This pitch possesses a healthy amount of spin and nice arm-side fade.
Spin is helpful for Urquidy’s fastball because he likes to locate it in the upper regions of the strike zone. This location gives his pitch the appearance of rising action, thereby inducing batters to swing underneath it.
His change-up, which is his second-favorite pitch by usage percentage, has even stronger arm-side action.
Pitching charts also illustrate its more probable placement along the borders of the strike zone.
Opponents hit .172 against it. He’ll emphasize this pitch especially against left-handed batters.
Urquidy vs. Tampa Bay Batters
Like his counterpart, Urquidy enjoys reliable form.
In five of his last six starts, he’s allowed two runs or fewer.
He’ll continue this tendency against a Tampa Bay squad that matches up with him poorly.
The Rays rank 22nd in slugging against his two favorite pitches — his fastball and change-up combine to compose 75 percent of his arsenal — from righties.
Also, Tampa Bay batters do not show any positive form themselves overall.
In three of their past four games, they’ve produced two runs or fewer. They have accumulated nine runs in their past four games combined.
Ji-Man Choi, for example, is cold right now. He has one hit in his last 10 at-bats with three strikeouts.
The Verdict
Expect a pitcher’s duel here with both pitchers enjoying good match-ups.
Because I want to focus on each starting pitcher, I want to make this a first-half play.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 (-105) with Heritage
