Buccaneers vs. Falcons Thursday Night Football Picks: The Bucs Are Bird-Hunting Again
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
Tampa Bay's Consistent Defense
Tampa Bay's consistent ability to limit its opponent's scoring makes it a strong underdog in this game.
Every week thus far, the Bucs' defense has demonstrated the ability to hold its opponent to below 20 points.
In Week 1, Tampa Bay led a Washington offense that has turned out to be very high-powered to 20 points, with Washington's final touchdown coming in garbage time when the game was already decided.
Next week, the Bucs held Detroit to 16 points. After that, they conceded 26 points to Denver, but seven of Denver's points came off a nine-yard drive following a turnover.
Most recently, Tampa Bay held Philadelphia to 16 points.
Tampa Bay's Run Defense
Last year, Tampa Bay owned the fourth-stoutest run defense. It was one of seven squads to hold opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards per game.
The statistics don't reflect it this year, but Tampa Bay's run defense is just as solid.
To make sense of Tampa Bay's statistical decline in run defense and to understand how misleading it is in view of the outlook of Tampa Bay's run defense for this game, we have to understand where it has come from.
First of all, the Bucs have mostly struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks.
While this is a significant problem in general, it is insignificant for Thursday's game because Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins is, obviously, no Jayden Daniels. Cousins is not a runner.
Second of all, Tampa Bay did allow Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs to have a great game. Should we expect Atlanta's key running back Bijan Robinson to replicate Gibbs' performance?
Gibbs' output does not create promise for Robinson because it hinged on the injury-induced absence of Tampa Bay's key run-stuffing defensive tackle Vita Vea.
After Vea left the game, Gibbs was able to achieve big gains on the ground, which made his statistical output look impressive.
Vea, though, is healthy now.
Brian Robinson Jr. of the Commanders in Week 1, David Montgomery of the Lions in Week 2, Javonte Williams of Denver in Week 3, and Saquon Barkley of Philadelphia — who managed one big gain but was otherwise held in check — in Week 4 all struggled to be efficient against Tampa Bay's run defense. They all regularly failed to achieve a decent amount of yards per carry.
Why This Matters
Running back Bijan Robinson is a crucial element of Atlanta's offense.
If you look at the score of Atlanta's last game, you might be inclined to disagree with me, but the Falcons scored 26 points because they anomalously scored two non-offensive touchdowns.
Arguably, the Falcons' offense is at its best when it gets Bijan going.
The Falcons' offense was sloppy last week against New Orleans largely because Bijan struggled, and he's struggling to a great degree because Atlanta's highly-regarded and irreplaceable run-stopping center Drew Dalman is injured.
Dalman's high-caliber PFF grades reflect his quality and the meaningfulness of his absence.
Tampa Bay's ability to stifle the efficiency of opposing running backs is going to make Atlanta's offense rely excessively on quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Cousins is a mediocre quarterback who is good for maybe 200 passing yards, although he's thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.
You might argue that he is a bit better than mediocre, but it is undeniable that he lacks dangerous weapons in the pass attack.
Heading into the season, Atlanta's wide receiver crew was ranked 13th by PFF.
This is not the pass attack that, especially when it is not supported by a dangerous running back group, is going to help its offense exceed 20 points against Tampa Bay's consistent defense.
Baker Mayfield's Improvement
Whereas Cousins is a middling quarterback with a passer rating just above 80, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield is thriving with a career-best 106.9 passer rating.
Last year, he rejuvenated his career with a career-best 4,000-yard passing output in his first season in Tampa Bay.
With another year of throwing to and developing chemistry with the well-reputed pass-catching duo Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Mayfield is continuing to improve.
He is also benefiting from his comfort with Liam Coen's offensive philosophy, which is giving Mayfield more freedom in the huddle to call plays based on what he is seeing in the defense.
As has been reported in the context of the NFL Draft in which he was selected, Mayfield certainly has an above-average IQ, so he has the mental ability to make the sort of pre-snap decisions that Coen is granting him the freedom to make.
After the snap, Mayfield is proving to be a highly accurate quarterback who can make throws all over the field.
The Importance of Solid Wide Receivers
As evident in PFF's rankings, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both excellent in contested catch situations.
This is important because Atlanta's pass defense has benefited from the inability of guys like New Orleans' Rashid Shaheed to grab contested balls.
The Falcons' pass defense has been statistically middle-of-the-road despite not having to face Philadelphia's AJ Brown, who is also known for excelling in contested catch situations, and despite facing a soft test from Pittsburgh's offense.
Good wide receivers, such as Kansas City's Rashee Rice, who caught 12 passes for 110 yards against the Falcons, and New Orleans' Chris Olave, who accrued a season-high 87 receiving yards against them, are already having some of their best performances of the season when facing Atlanta.
Godwin and Evans will pose a particularly tough challenge for Atlanta's secondary not only because they are good receivers, but also because Atlanta's cornerbacks reportedly struggle in contested catch situations.
Guys like AJ Terrell and the shorter Mike Hughes are struggling to limit the rate at which opposing wide receivers catch passes of which they are the target.
Godwin hauls in just about everything thrown to him, and Evans is even taller and more well-sized than Godwin.
My point here is that Tampa Bay has the superior pass attack in this game while Atlanta lacks the secondary to stop it,
Takeaway
While I like the direction that Tampa Bay's rush attack is traversing with the 5.8 YPC of the developing Bucky Irving, what will really matter in this game is Tampa Bay's pass attack.
The Bucs separate themselves from Atlanta with their superior quarterback and wide receiver play. Their pass attack, along with their consistently effective defense, will lead them to victory.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +2 at -105 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
Tampa Bay's Consistent Defense
Tampa Bay's consistent ability to limit its opponent's scoring makes it a strong underdog in this game.
Every week thus far, the Bucs' defense has demonstrated the ability to hold its opponent to below 20 points.
In Week 1, Tampa Bay led a Washington offense that has turned out to be very high-powered to 20 points, with Washington's final touchdown coming in garbage time when the game was already decided.
Next week, the Bucs held Detroit to 16 points. After that, they conceded 26 points to Denver, but seven of Denver's points came off a nine-yard drive following a turnover.
Most recently, Tampa Bay held Philadelphia to 16 points.
Tampa Bay's Run Defense
Last year, Tampa Bay owned the fourth-stoutest run defense. It was one of seven squads to hold opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards per game.
The statistics don't reflect it this year, but Tampa Bay's run defense is just as solid.
To make sense of Tampa Bay's statistical decline in run defense and to understand how misleading it is in view of the outlook of Tampa Bay's run defense for this game, we have to understand where it has come from.
First of all, the Bucs have mostly struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks.
While this is a significant problem in general, it is insignificant for Thursday's game because Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins is, obviously, no Jayden Daniels. Cousins is not a runner.
Second of all, Tampa Bay did allow Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs to have a great game. Should we expect Atlanta's key running back Bijan Robinson to replicate Gibbs' performance?
Gibbs' output does not create promise for Robinson because it hinged on the injury-induced absence of Tampa Bay's key run-stuffing defensive tackle Vita Vea.
After Vea left the game, Gibbs was able to achieve big gains on the ground, which made his statistical output look impressive.
Vea, though, is healthy now.
Brian Robinson Jr. of the Commanders in Week 1, David Montgomery of the Lions in Week 2, Javonte Williams of Denver in Week 3, and Saquon Barkley of Philadelphia — who managed one big gain but was otherwise held in check — in Week 4 all struggled to be efficient against Tampa Bay's run defense. They all regularly failed to achieve a decent amount of yards per carry.
Why This Matters
Running back Bijan Robinson is a crucial element of Atlanta's offense.
If you look at the score of Atlanta's last game, you might be inclined to disagree with me, but the Falcons scored 26 points because they anomalously scored two non-offensive touchdowns.
Arguably, the Falcons' offense is at its best when it gets Bijan going.
The Falcons' offense was sloppy last week against New Orleans largely because Bijan struggled, and he's struggling to a great degree because Atlanta's highly-regarded and irreplaceable run-stopping center Drew Dalman is injured.
Dalman's high-caliber PFF grades reflect his quality and the meaningfulness of his absence.
Tampa Bay's ability to stifle the efficiency of opposing running backs is going to make Atlanta's offense rely excessively on quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Cousins is a mediocre quarterback who is good for maybe 200 passing yards, although he's thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.
You might argue that he is a bit better than mediocre, but it is undeniable that he lacks dangerous weapons in the pass attack.
Heading into the season, Atlanta's wide receiver crew was ranked 13th by PFF.
This is not the pass attack that, especially when it is not supported by a dangerous running back group, is going to help its offense exceed 20 points against Tampa Bay's consistent defense.
Baker Mayfield's Improvement
Whereas Cousins is a middling quarterback with a passer rating just above 80, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield is thriving with a career-best 106.9 passer rating.
Last year, he rejuvenated his career with a career-best 4,000-yard passing output in his first season in Tampa Bay.
With another year of throwing to and developing chemistry with the well-reputed pass-catching duo Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Mayfield is continuing to improve.
He is also benefiting from his comfort with Liam Coen's offensive philosophy, which is giving Mayfield more freedom in the huddle to call plays based on what he is seeing in the defense.
As has been reported in the context of the NFL Draft in which he was selected, Mayfield certainly has an above-average IQ, so he has the mental ability to make the sort of pre-snap decisions that Coen is granting him the freedom to make.
After the snap, Mayfield is proving to be a highly accurate quarterback who can make throws all over the field.
The Importance of Solid Wide Receivers
As evident in PFF's rankings, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both excellent in contested catch situations.
This is important because Atlanta's pass defense has benefited from the inability of guys like New Orleans' Rashid Shaheed to grab contested balls.
The Falcons' pass defense has been statistically middle-of-the-road despite not having to face Philadelphia's AJ Brown, who is also known for excelling in contested catch situations, and despite facing a soft test from Pittsburgh's offense.
Good wide receivers, such as Kansas City's Rashee Rice, who caught 12 passes for 110 yards against the Falcons, and New Orleans' Chris Olave, who accrued a season-high 87 receiving yards against them, are already having some of their best performances of the season when facing Atlanta.
Godwin and Evans will pose a particularly tough challenge for Atlanta's secondary not only because they are good receivers, but also because Atlanta's cornerbacks reportedly struggle in contested catch situations.
Guys like AJ Terrell and the shorter Mike Hughes are struggling to limit the rate at which opposing wide receivers catch passes of which they are the target.
Godwin hauls in just about everything thrown to him, and Evans is even taller and more well-sized than Godwin.
My point here is that Tampa Bay has the superior pass attack in this game while Atlanta lacks the secondary to stop it,
Takeaway
While I like the direction that Tampa Bay's rush attack is traversing with the 5.8 YPC of the developing Bucky Irving, what will really matter in this game is Tampa Bay's pass attack.
The Bucs separate themselves from Atlanta with their superior quarterback and wide receiver play. Their pass attack, along with their consistently effective defense, will lead them to victory.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +2 at -105 with BetOnline
