NFL Parlay for Sunday’s Games at +264 Odds
One danger with placing bets late in the season is that we rely on hastily formed conceptions. We see a team in the early part of the season and assume in the latter part of the season that it is the same team.
For my analysis, I want to point out that one team, Atlanta, has become a very different team. Oddsmakers are not accounting for the new kind of team that Atlanta has become.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 20, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Improved Overall Defense
Anybody who cites Atlanta's full-season defensive statistics in support of a play on Tampa Bay is being disingenuous.
These statistics reflect Atlanta’s performance in the beginning of the season. But they do not reflect how well the Falcon defense has played for the last several weeks.
Whereas the Falcons allowed 32.2 points and 446 yards per game over the course of the first five games of this season, they have allowed an average of 20.1 points and 357 yards per game during the last seven games.
If Atlanta’s defensive stats during these last seven games were equal to their season-long defensive stats, then the Falcons would rank fifth in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed.
This disparity between points and yards allowed is considerable, but it simply reflects the kind of defense that Atlanta is.
The Falcon opponent will often dominate time of possession, use up a lot of time to move the ball downfield, but fail to score. These kind of drives are exactly what “under” bettors dream of.
So in their last game, for example, the Falcons allowed Charger quarterback Justin Herbert to dink-and-dunk his way to a 243 yardage total that he required 44 pass attempts to achieve.
Falcons Pass Defense
In terms of DVOA, which is a metric that adjusts for factors like opponent quality and league average, Atlanta’s pass defense has improved massively.
The Falcon pass defense has not been untested. During its positive streak, Atlanta has faced two of the nine quarterbacks that own a passer rating above 100.
One of those quarterbacks was the Raiders’ Derek Carr, who produced his worst passer rating of the season in his game against Atlanta.
The other quarterback was Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, who mustered a 90.4 passer rating after throwing for two garbage-time touchdowns in a blowout loss.
Part of the strength of Atlanta’s pass defense is unsurprising. Per PFF’s grades, Deion Jones was expected to remain and still does remain perhaps the NFL’s best linebacker in coverage.
Players in the secondary are also stepping up. Rookie AJ Terrell had an atrocious start to the season. But his PFF grades against high-level match-ups and while playing so many snaps reflect the strong improvement that he’s experiencing.
In that game against Minnesota for example, Terrell contributed to wide receiver Adam Thielen’s low productivity.
Tampa Bay Offense
Tampa Bay’s ability to pass the ball is important because the Bucs own the NFL’s fifth-highest pass-play percentage.
In some senses, Brady is a bad fit in a more vertically driven offensive scheme. He is being asked to throw deep balls with greater frequency than he did in New England.
Accuracy on deep balls has been an issue for Brady throughout the season. He ranks 23rd in deep ball completion percentage, which partly explains why his season passer rating remains under 100.
As evidenced by stats like opposing yards per attempt and opposing yards per completion, Atlanta’s pass defense likes to keep the ball in front of it.
So a vertically driven offense is disadvantaged against the kind of pass defense that the Falcons like to play.
Atlanta Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense
Like his team’s defense, Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan is no longer who people think of him as.
The 35 year-old’s passer rating is as low as it has been since 2015. His YPA and touchdown numbers are also uniquely low for him.
Ryan has been particularly unproductive, lately. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since October. His passer rating in each of his last four games was lower than 81.
Even playing the Raiders’ 25th-ranked pass defense did not help Ryan. So playing a Tampa Bay pass defense that has ranked among the NFL leaders in DVOA throughout the season cannot justify any hope for the aging quarterback.
His vision, his decision-making, and his arm have not been good enough.
Yet, Atlanta continues to have an anemic and inefficient running game as well.
Why Bet The Falcons
This is going to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog.
At minimum, Atlanta has stayed within six points of its opponents in each of its last three games. All of those games went “under” the total posted by oddsmakers.
The Falcons are consistently this competitive in their home games where they haven’t lost by more than six points since they lost by seven on October 11 to Carolina.
The Verdict
Atlanta’s improved defense will enjoy its match-up against a more vertical Tampa bay offense. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan will do enough at home to produce another close game.
Best Bet: Falcons +6 at -110 & Under 50.5 at -110 at +264 odds with Bovada
One danger with placing bets late in the season is that we rely on hastily formed conceptions. We see a team in the early part of the season and assume in the latter part of the season that it is the same team.
For my analysis, I want to point out that one team, Atlanta, has become a very different team. Oddsmakers are not accounting for the new kind of team that Atlanta has become.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 20, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Improved Overall Defense
Anybody who cites Atlanta's full-season defensive statistics in support of a play on Tampa Bay is being disingenuous.
These statistics reflect Atlanta’s performance in the beginning of the season. But they do not reflect how well the Falcon defense has played for the last several weeks.
Whereas the Falcons allowed 32.2 points and 446 yards per game over the course of the first five games of this season, they have allowed an average of 20.1 points and 357 yards per game during the last seven games.
If Atlanta’s defensive stats during these last seven games were equal to their season-long defensive stats, then the Falcons would rank fifth in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed.
This disparity between points and yards allowed is considerable, but it simply reflects the kind of defense that Atlanta is.
The Falcon opponent will often dominate time of possession, use up a lot of time to move the ball downfield, but fail to score. These kind of drives are exactly what “under” bettors dream of.
So in their last game, for example, the Falcons allowed Charger quarterback Justin Herbert to dink-and-dunk his way to a 243 yardage total that he required 44 pass attempts to achieve.
Falcons Pass Defense
In terms of DVOA, which is a metric that adjusts for factors like opponent quality and league average, Atlanta’s pass defense has improved massively.
The Falcon pass defense has not been untested. During its positive streak, Atlanta has faced two of the nine quarterbacks that own a passer rating above 100.
One of those quarterbacks was the Raiders’ Derek Carr, who produced his worst passer rating of the season in his game against Atlanta.
The other quarterback was Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, who mustered a 90.4 passer rating after throwing for two garbage-time touchdowns in a blowout loss.
Part of the strength of Atlanta’s pass defense is unsurprising. Per PFF’s grades, Deion Jones was expected to remain and still does remain perhaps the NFL’s best linebacker in coverage.
Players in the secondary are also stepping up. Rookie AJ Terrell had an atrocious start to the season. But his PFF grades against high-level match-ups and while playing so many snaps reflect the strong improvement that he’s experiencing.
In that game against Minnesota for example, Terrell contributed to wide receiver Adam Thielen’s low productivity.
Tampa Bay Offense
Tampa Bay’s ability to pass the ball is important because the Bucs own the NFL’s fifth-highest pass-play percentage.
In some senses, Brady is a bad fit in a more vertically driven offensive scheme. He is being asked to throw deep balls with greater frequency than he did in New England.
Accuracy on deep balls has been an issue for Brady throughout the season. He ranks 23rd in deep ball completion percentage, which partly explains why his season passer rating remains under 100.
As evidenced by stats like opposing yards per attempt and opposing yards per completion, Atlanta’s pass defense likes to keep the ball in front of it.
So a vertically driven offense is disadvantaged against the kind of pass defense that the Falcons like to play.
Atlanta Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense
Like his team’s defense, Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan is no longer who people think of him as.
The 35 year-old’s passer rating is as low as it has been since 2015. His YPA and touchdown numbers are also uniquely low for him.
Ryan has been particularly unproductive, lately. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since October. His passer rating in each of his last four games was lower than 81.
Even playing the Raiders’ 25th-ranked pass defense did not help Ryan. So playing a Tampa Bay pass defense that has ranked among the NFL leaders in DVOA throughout the season cannot justify any hope for the aging quarterback.
His vision, his decision-making, and his arm have not been good enough.
Yet, Atlanta continues to have an anemic and inefficient running game as well.
Why Bet The Falcons
This is going to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog.
At minimum, Atlanta has stayed within six points of its opponents in each of its last three games. All of those games went “under” the total posted by oddsmakers.
The Falcons are consistently this competitive in their home games where they haven’t lost by more than six points since they lost by seven on October 11 to Carolina.
The Verdict
Atlanta’s improved defense will enjoy its match-up against a more vertical Tampa bay offense. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan will do enough at home to produce another close game.
Best Bet: Falcons +6 at -110 & Under 50.5 at -110 at +264 odds with Bovada
