Talk me off San Diego
- Thread starter Capaholic
- Start date
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
SD has turned over much of the roster and I think that's a good thing. Decent D, Mathews looks amazing, and Gates is healthy. They're not a playoff team but they are a 4-4, 5-3 home team still in the NFL. Texans IMO going the wrong way as an organization and are hurting in the secondary.
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
Houston @ San Diego
Appearing on ESPN's NFL Insiders Wednesday, GM Rick Smith stressed that the Texans' 2013 run-game goal is to increase Ben Tate's role in hopes of increased "balance" between Tate and Arian Foster. Foster leads the NFL in offensive touches over the past three seasons, and his per-carry and per-reception averages are in decline. "We've got to have some balance," Smith said. "Ben has had a good offseason. ... I think as long as we have that balance between the two, I think we'll be pretty good." A "balanced" two-back committee could help Foster avoid physical breakdown while maintaining Houston's run-based philosophy. In Week 1, look for both runners to hover around 15-18 touches as formidable RB2 plays. Perhaps Foster will regain RB1 workloads in time, but fantasy owners can't expect that immediately because the Texans don't plan to utilize him that way. ... Houston has been and will continue to be a run-heavy vertical shot-play team that exploits cheating defenses downfield off play-action fakes. San Diego has three new secondary starters including RCB Shareece Wright (0 career starts), who at least in preseason played on the side where Andre Johnson runs the majority of his routes. For A.J., this is an appetizing matchup.
Although Matt Schaub is capable of random big box-score games and San Diego's defense isn't an imposing foe, Schaub is no more than a two-QB option Monday night. He hasn't finished inside the top-17 fantasy quarterbacks since 2010. ... Rookie DeAndre Hopkins played Z receiver and some slot this preseason and will likely run most of his Week 1 pass patterns into Chargers LCB Derek Cox's coverage. When healthy, Cox has flashed No. 1 corner ability in the past. Hopkins is a virtual lock to be an effective real-life NFL player, but I think he'll be stretched for stable week-to-week fantasy value competing for targets with Foster, Owen Daniels, and Garrett Graham behind Johnson in a run-first offense. Consider Hopkins a low-end WR3 for now. Coach Gary Kubiak admitted Friday Hopkins is still "in a catch-up period" with the playbook after missing over two weeks of camp following a concussion. ... Correspondingly, the Texans' addition of a legitimate No. 2 receiver and rise of Graham as a passing-game factor threaten to crush Daniels' production. Daniels has a plus matchup due to San Diego's suspect second- and third-level coverage, but there definitely are a dozen better Week 1 tight end plays.
Short of borderline-genius scheming by Mike McCoy, the Chargers' offense is going to struggle to move the ball Monday night as LE J.J. Watt eats up San Diego's interior line and OLB Whitney Mercilus tees off on LT King Dunlap. Prior to ILB Brian Cushing's October 8 ACL tear, the 2012 Texans were allowing the fewest points per game (14.0) in football. They ranked second versus the pass and 11th against the run. Cushing is back now, restoring physicality and versatility to Houston's linebacker corps. Philip Rivers' withered arm and seemingly shell-shocked on-field play have been ongoing themes the past two seasons. Expect them to continue in Week 1. ... McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt have installed a quick-hitting, three-step-drop offense in San Diego, in hopes of compensating for arguably the NFL's worst offensive line and rejuvenating Rivers. While Rivers is a long shot for individual fantasy success in this daunting matchup, the revised offense plays to the strengths of possession "Z" receiver Vincent Brown and perhaps TE Antonio Gates. The concern with Gates is he may wind up helping Dunlap block often in this game, diminishing his box-score impact. The concern with Brown is he will contend with Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph for most of the night, as they primarily line up on the same side. Brown is a shaky WR3.
On the other hand, the new offense is a painfully poor fit for "X" receiver Malcom Floyd. 32 years old now, Floyd is a leggy, long-striding one-trick-pony deep threat on a team that intends to go deep less. Lacking any sliver of season-long upside, Floyd will be viewed as waiver-wire fodder by fantasy-title contenders. ... Ryan Mathews looked awfully good in August, running with purpose, elusiveness, and perimeter speed and averaging 4.65 yards per carry on 26 totes against the first-string defenses of Seattle, Chicago, and Arizona. Unfortunately, Mathews also lost a fumble and didn't catch a single pass, the latter of which is likely a sign of things to come. The Chargers have stripped Mathews of passing-down duties, where they'll use Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown. A two-down back only, Mathews is capable of producing like an RB1 as long as he's healthy and San Diego is sitting a lead. Mathews will be sitting on the sideline when the Chargers are losing.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Chargers 17
Appearing on ESPN's NFL Insiders Wednesday, GM Rick Smith stressed that the Texans' 2013 run-game goal is to increase Ben Tate's role in hopes of increased "balance" between Tate and Arian Foster. Foster leads the NFL in offensive touches over the past three seasons, and his per-carry and per-reception averages are in decline. "We've got to have some balance," Smith said. "Ben has had a good offseason. ... I think as long as we have that balance between the two, I think we'll be pretty good." A "balanced" two-back committee could help Foster avoid physical breakdown while maintaining Houston's run-based philosophy. In Week 1, look for both runners to hover around 15-18 touches as formidable RB2 plays. Perhaps Foster will regain RB1 workloads in time, but fantasy owners can't expect that immediately because the Texans don't plan to utilize him that way. ... Houston has been and will continue to be a run-heavy vertical shot-play team that exploits cheating defenses downfield off play-action fakes. San Diego has three new secondary starters including RCB Shareece Wright (0 career starts), who at least in preseason played on the side where Andre Johnson runs the majority of his routes. For A.J., this is an appetizing matchup.
Although Matt Schaub is capable of random big box-score games and San Diego's defense isn't an imposing foe, Schaub is no more than a two-QB option Monday night. He hasn't finished inside the top-17 fantasy quarterbacks since 2010. ... Rookie DeAndre Hopkins played Z receiver and some slot this preseason and will likely run most of his Week 1 pass patterns into Chargers LCB Derek Cox's coverage. When healthy, Cox has flashed No. 1 corner ability in the past. Hopkins is a virtual lock to be an effective real-life NFL player, but I think he'll be stretched for stable week-to-week fantasy value competing for targets with Foster, Owen Daniels, and Garrett Graham behind Johnson in a run-first offense. Consider Hopkins a low-end WR3 for now. Coach Gary Kubiak admitted Friday Hopkins is still "in a catch-up period" with the playbook after missing over two weeks of camp following a concussion. ... Correspondingly, the Texans' addition of a legitimate No. 2 receiver and rise of Graham as a passing-game factor threaten to crush Daniels' production. Daniels has a plus matchup due to San Diego's suspect second- and third-level coverage, but there definitely are a dozen better Week 1 tight end plays.
Short of borderline-genius scheming by Mike McCoy, the Chargers' offense is going to struggle to move the ball Monday night as LE J.J. Watt eats up San Diego's interior line and OLB Whitney Mercilus tees off on LT King Dunlap. Prior to ILB Brian Cushing's October 8 ACL tear, the 2012 Texans were allowing the fewest points per game (14.0) in football. They ranked second versus the pass and 11th against the run. Cushing is back now, restoring physicality and versatility to Houston's linebacker corps. Philip Rivers' withered arm and seemingly shell-shocked on-field play have been ongoing themes the past two seasons. Expect them to continue in Week 1. ... McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt have installed a quick-hitting, three-step-drop offense in San Diego, in hopes of compensating for arguably the NFL's worst offensive line and rejuvenating Rivers. While Rivers is a long shot for individual fantasy success in this daunting matchup, the revised offense plays to the strengths of possession "Z" receiver Vincent Brown and perhaps TE Antonio Gates. The concern with Gates is he may wind up helping Dunlap block often in this game, diminishing his box-score impact. The concern with Brown is he will contend with Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph for most of the night, as they primarily line up on the same side. Brown is a shaky WR3.
On the other hand, the new offense is a painfully poor fit for "X" receiver Malcom Floyd. 32 years old now, Floyd is a leggy, long-striding one-trick-pony deep threat on a team that intends to go deep less. Lacking any sliver of season-long upside, Floyd will be viewed as waiver-wire fodder by fantasy-title contenders. ... Ryan Mathews looked awfully good in August, running with purpose, elusiveness, and perimeter speed and averaging 4.65 yards per carry on 26 totes against the first-string defenses of Seattle, Chicago, and Arizona. Unfortunately, Mathews also lost a fumble and didn't catch a single pass, the latter of which is likely a sign of things to come. The Chargers have stripped Mathews of passing-down duties, where they'll use Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown. A two-down back only, Mathews is capable of producing like an RB1 as long as he's healthy and San Diego is sitting a lead. Mathews will be sitting on the sideline when the Chargers are losing.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Chargers 17
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
If you're a trend bettor, it's kind of all over the place: Texans 6-1 ATS in September the last 3 seasons, 1-5 ATS on MNF, Chargers 20-3 ATS against AFC South the past 3 seasons. If you're a total bettor, this should make you smile: Over is 7-3 in Houston’s last 10 road openers, 8-2 in Chargers’ last ten home openers.
I do kind of like the Chargers just because I don't think much of Matt Schaub to begin with and Philip Rivers should get a bit more time with the rebuilt offensive line. Plus with Norv finally gone, you'll probably see the Chargers with a bit more jump in their step.
Good luck either way.
I do kind of like the Chargers just because I don't think much of Matt Schaub to begin with and Philip Rivers should get a bit more time with the rebuilt offensive line. Plus with Norv finally gone, you'll probably see the Chargers with a bit more jump in their step.
Good luck either way.
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
honestly you dont need much other reason than this to back sd... line opening at 2.5 kinda speaks volumes too
[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1114"]
<tbody>[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"] 9/09
10:20 PM
[TD="class: pct"] 80%
20%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 76%
24%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1114"]
<tbody>[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"] 9/09
10:20 PM
481 Houston Texans
482 San Diego Chargers
[/TD]482 San Diego Chargers
[TD="class: pct"] 80%
20%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 76%
24%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
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