Taking Jays +300, O's +2,500 to win the A.L. East

[gamer]

Who you like better? The team that's gone 20-4 (2-3 against expected playoff teams) facing a bullshit easy schedule? Or the team that's gone 15-9 with most of their games on the road and more than half against contenders?

Orioles +2,500 is a small insurance policy since you never know with these young and hungry teams. Too much talent to count them out totally and I'd kick myself if the Jays topple the Rays only to finish behind the Orioles and I didn't take this. Yankees are irrelevant to this situation. They are a lost, old team on the downswing.

 

[2daBank]

I love the young o’s but I don’t think they have the starting pitching to hold up in that division, they been kings feasting on bad teams early on. I agree jays are every bit as good as the rays, between the 2 I think jays a way better bet; hate to say it but I think you be throwing money away on O’s, and again I love that team! Young teams who stop sucking are exciting to me, they need some more starting pitching tho and I doubt they be looking to trade much away at deadline to get it. Maybe another year away for them. Remember Yankees are dealing w a ton of injuries right now, in the lineup and they missing 2 really good starting pitchers at moment! I hate the Yankees as much I like the O’s but I would prob bet yanks end up finishing ahead of them, the fact they have a winning record thus far is actually impressive considering the injuries they dealing with! And unlike the o’s you know yanks will spend at trade deadline!

 

[gamer]

I generally agree with your thought process. I don't view it as throwing money away on the O's, but an insurance policy as I stated. My Jays bet is 10x bigger. The problem with giving credit to an old, injury-prone Yankees team being above .500 battling through injuries is that they are just that. They are old and by default, injury prone. More injuries will come to that team and there is no guarantee that when those guys are back, they won't be pumpkins. Look at Kluber and Sale. That's the future for Rodon and Montas. Severino will still likely have some gas in him though with how little he's pitched recently, who knows. On the hitting side they have five guys with an OPS+ above 100 right now. Four of them are in their 30's. Contrast that to the Jays, the only guy they rely on offensively in his 30's is Springer. I guess Chapman too who just turned 30. The rest of those guys are either in or just entering their prime. Yankees had that ridiculous start last season but have basically been a .500 team since last July. I think that's their true talent level.

 

[2daBank]

Rodon isn’t nearly as old those other guys you mentioned is he? I think he only like 30., he should have several more strong years before he falls off like Kluber. Don’t think he has had nearly the injury problems as Sale? I dunno, I’d bet Yankees still finish above o’s, I don’t think playing o’s is a good insurance policy at all cause rays will absolutely finish ahead of balty, I’d bet my left nut on that. I’m all for long shots and I like O’s, they just not ready with their pitching to last in the Al east, put them in Al central and it be a different story! I said at beginning the year cubs were worth a shot, I love up and coming teams, Al east just too strong and O’s starting pitching ain’t strong enough imo.

 

[2daBank]

Plus like I said I think it highly unlikely that the O’s will be willing to Add at the trade deadline: Yankees will go out and get a much needed bat or 2. I think their pitching will be more than fine. Cole looks the best he has since leaving houston imo. I assume they wouldn’t have gave Rodon the big money unless they were confident in him coming back strong, I think you gotta trust the dr’s and staff cause we don’t know the situation, they do.

 

[2daBank]

Yanks starting rotation+pen is way better than a .500 team imo. The lineup you probably have a case but you know they will add a bat if needed. Too early to know what those rookies they have playing SS and 3rd gonna hit like? When Bader comes back to play center field they will have a elite defense,, defense and pitching can win lots of games. They basically the opposite of O’s who have the lineup but lacking pitching. If I have to choose 1 I’ll roll with pitching every time.

 

[2daBank]

I’m not trying to be a Ass but I’d seriously book balty futures and I can’t stress enough how much I like them and am rooting for them. They have to overcome 3 good to excellent teams that all have better pitching than them. Just a lot to ask, I hope they keep it up cause they fun, just like I’m rooting for pirates and cubs even tho they in cardinals division. It just good for baseball to have young exciting teams opposed to the dog shit they serving up in Oakland and Washington to a lessor extent.

 

[gamer]

Oh I don't take your comments as being as ass at all. Anyone who lays cash on a +2,500 bet should know exactly what they are getting themselves into and position themselves accordingly. If the O's continue to play hot, those odds should come down and I'll get a chance to cash out profitably if I get cold feet, hopefully. Especially if the Rays start losing and the division looks a bit more up for grabs. My post is more about the +300 on the Jays. That I think is a steal with the only threat being the Yankees, which I don't believe are as big of a threat as others do.

As for deadline spending, it's certainly possible. Not sure if the Yankees aren't already at their limit of expensive contracts. Maybe not given what Cohen has been doing. Depends if they want to start a crosstown Cold War or retain some level of austerity. Honestly if I was the Yankees brass and I saw the Jays, Rays, Astros...rise of other teams like Texas and Baltimore. Seattle's always a threat even though they are mediocre right now. Then look at the top tier teams of the N.L., I'd concede that maybe this was not my year and favor keeping prospects and building the farm a bit rather than roll with this old squad in October. There are a lot of younger, deeper and more talented teams in baseball right now.

 

[2daBank]

Oh I don't take your comments as being as ass at all. Anyone who lays cash on a +2,500 bet should know exactly what they are getting themselves into and position themselves accordingly. If the O's continue to play hot, those odds should come down and I'll get a chance to cash out profitably if I get cold feet, hopefully. Especially if the Rays start losing and the division looks a bit more up for grabs. My post is more about the +300 on the Jays. That I think is a steal with the only threat being the Yankees, which I don't believe are as big of a threat as others do.

As for deadline spending, it's certainly possible. Not sure if the Yankees aren't already at their limit of expensive contracts. Maybe not given what Cohen has been doing. Depends if they want to start a crosstown Cold War or retain some level of austerity. Honestly if I was the Yankees brass and I saw the Jays, Rays, Astros...rise of other teams like Texas and Baltimore. Seattle's always a threat even though they are mediocre right now. Then look at the top tier teams of the N.L., I'd concede that maybe this was not my year and favor keeping prospects and building the farm a bit rather than roll with this old squad in October. There are a lot of younger, deeper and more talented teams in baseball right now.

I think yanks have shifted their philosophy a bit, I mean they still gonna spend but they have valued more their own guys recently, they have the ss and kid playing 3rd they refused to trade and guess the future is now for them, def for Volpe it sink or swim time, not sure if the kid playing 3rd hangs around all year or not? I don’t think they necessarily go out and get any long term expensive guy at deadline but they will fleece some crappy broke ass team out of a bat upgrade in left field. Biggest problem there is I dunno if the really bad sellers have anything worth buying? Maybe the white Sox willing to sell if they continue playing like ass.

My real concern with phrasing balty as a hedge is I think you just cutting into the value on a jays future which at 3-1 to win east I think is pretty damn good. I assume that is thanks to the blazing start by rays? I’ve said all year and while betting jays the entire series vs rays I think they every bit as good as tampa. There no way rays continue hitting the way they have. I’d take rays pitching but jays lineup, I don’t think either one is hugely better than the other tho. If, and it a big if, rays get a healthy Glastnow back they will be filthy 1-2-3 plus the pen backing them up, maybe even 4 deep of filth if that youngster Taj is the real deal, losing springs right after signing him hurt but they so deep w pitching talent, I just don’t see a world where o’s can stay with them for 162. Even the o’s starters I like wouldn’t crack the top 3 in any of the rays, jays, or yanks rotations.