Tail or Fade | Wild Card

[rambler882]

326-366, -61.89u

Terrifying end to what was shaping up to be a solid season. All good, went big and lost...lost more... and went bigger. You know how it goes. Weather this weekend makes it hard to have confidence on some games and any guesswork people want to claim with snow, freezing temps, etc. is just silly. No one knows who will handle what, well. But, I love gambling so here we are.

For starters...

Browns -2.5, 2u -115
Browns +3.5 / Bills -3, 1u -120
Browns-Texans u44, 2u -115
D. Singletary u67.5, 1u -115
J. Ford o42.5, 1u -110 @Lexington 125
K. Hunt TD, 1u +190

Dolphins +4.5, 2u -105
Dolphins +10.5 / Rams +9, 1u -120
D. Achane o68.5 rush + rec, 1u -114
D. Achane TD, 1u +170
I. Pacheco TD, 1u -110

Cowboys -7, 4u -118
Cowboys -1.5 / Bills -4, 2u -120



Futures played for tracking purposes
Niners Super Bowl, 3u +967
Eagles Super Bowl, 2u +850
Lions Super Bowl, 2u +2550
Bills Super Bowl, 2u +2950
Jaguars Super Bowl, 1u +2500
Jaguars AFC South Winner, 2u -155
C. Ridley o875.5 rec yards, 2u -112

 

[rambler882]

326-366, -61.89u

Terrifying end to what was shaping up to be a solid season. All good, went big and lost...lost more... and went bigger. You know how it goes. Weather this weekend makes it hard to have confidence on some games and any guesswork people want to claim with snow, freezing temps, etc. is just silly. No one knows who will handle what, well. But, I love gambling so here we are.

For starters...

Browns -2.5, 2u -115
Browns +3.5 / Bills -3, 1u -120
Browns-Texans u44, 2u -115
D. Singletary u67.5, 1u -115
J. Ford o42.5, 1u -110 @Lexington 125
K. Hunt TD, 1u +190

Dolphins +4.5, 2u -105
Dolphins +10.5 / Rams +9, 1u -120
D. Achane o68.5 rush + rec, 1u -114
D. Achane TD, 1u +170
I. Pacheco TD, 1u -110

Bills -9, 2u -105
Cowboys -7, 4u -118
Cowboys -1.5 / Bills -4, 2u -120



Futures played for tracking purposes
Niners Super Bowl, 3u +967
Eagles Super Bowl, 2u +850
Lions Super Bowl, 2u +2550
Bills Super Bowl, 2u +2950
Jaguars Super Bowl, 1u +2500
Jaguars AFC South Winner, 2u -155
C. Ridley o875.5 rec yards, 2u -112

N. Collins u5.5, 1u -104
P. Mahomes o4.5 rush att., 1u -125

 

[rambler882]

Gross. Kicked in the teeth again. Also added more in games which all lost. The hole feels too big to dig out of

 

[rambler882]

The -9 degrees here is a sign of how cold I got in nfl

 

[rambler882]

I know why week 16-18 were awful, I was betting 40-50 things at higher units....days off and boredom always gets me. So I just am chalking that up. Yesterday I did more of this betting a bunch of props and other things. Poor me.

Taking a quick look at where I went wrong with yesterday is deciding to minimalize Browns road defensive stats. For the Chiefs, it isn't the weather that I believe cost the game, but more game calling. Runs v. Pass was insane on the Fins side. Can't believe it frankly. That said, I did shift out of my typical way of analyzing playoff games and was just too cute.

In simplest terms, the starting point should always be looking at the matchups and scoring them. If I did this properly for either game, I probably end up on Texans and Chiefs. Oh well. What I tend to weight higher in the playoffs is HC, QB, OL v. DL as the top 3. Texans had the advantage in HC, QB, and I'll call the OL v. DL a wash. Chiefs had the advantage in HC, QB, and again I'll call OL v. DL a wash but the injuries would of made the play Chiefs easily. Instead, I focused way too much on the Fins ability to run the ball and of course, they barely even tried. Meanwhile, Chiefs ran ran ran and won won won.

It isn't just these 3 elements for me, but it is the starting point and when there is a clear advantage typically it would take some type of matchup nightmare to flip. Looking at today...

Packers v. Cowboys:

• HC. LaFleur is better, each are .500 in playoffs about, so will give a slight nod to Lafleur
• QB. I give the nod to Dak by a fair margin. Love has done great the last 8 or so weeks, but not vs. great teams and experience matters in my opinion
• Dallas OL v. GB DL. This is a relatively even matchup all things considered. Where Dallas could take advantage is on the ground but nothing points to that yet this year
• GB OL v. Dallas DL. This is where we see a bit of a lopsided matchup. GB OL is solid but from a pressures standpoint Dallas has a gigantic advantage. GB could have some success on the ground with a healthy Jones but hard to count on it
• Skill positions. Cowboys get a nod with Lamb, Fergie, etc.
• Questions. Will Love show inexperience? Will McCarthy fuck it all up?

Rams v. Lions

• HC. McVay easy. Experience + is just better
• QB. Stafford is the better QB, no if ands or buts
• Det OL v. LAR DL. The best OL in the NFL is what makes the offense tick (and make Goff look good). LAR do have a solid front 4 but you can run on them based on the data. Lions have a good advantage in run game here if they decide to stick to it
• LAR OL v. Det DL. Rams OL who most thought would be a weakness ended up being a strength. In the pass game, LAR & DET have similar advantages but because of secondary play the Rams have an advantage. In the run game I expect Kyren to potentially be slowed down here as DET is top 5 in yards per attempt
• Kupp/Nacua. These seems like a big advantage for LAR with Detroit secondary being near the bottom in the league. Stafford should have enough time in the pocket to carve it up
• SoS. Rams ranked 5-6, Lions 19-20 ranges. Does it matter?
• Questions. LaPortas health? Lions getting McNeil and Gardner back improves defense enough? HFA?

 

[rambler882]

Cowboys -7, 4u -118
Cowboys -1 / Rams +9, 2u -120
Cowboys -1.5 / Bills -4, 2u -120
Packers u21.5, 2u -116
J. Love u253.5, 2u +100

Rams o24.5, 2u -114
C. Kupp o5.5, 2u -150
D. Montgomery o54.5, 2u -110
M. Stafford o.5 rush yard, 2u -125

Lamb o69.5 / Kupp o4.5 / Montgomery o39.5, 2u +146
Cowboys ML / Packers u21.5 / Lamb o79.5 / Rams +10.5 / Stafford o249.5 / Robinson o24.5 / Kupp o4.5, 2u +622
Cowboys ML / Packers u21.5 / Stafford o1.5 rush yards / Kupp o5.5 / Montgomery o49.5 / Rams o24.5, 1u +1950

 

[rambler882]

Cowboys -7, 4u -118
Cowboys -1 / Rams +9, 2u -120
Cowboys -1.5 / Bills -4, 2u -120
Packers u21.5, 2u -116
J. Love u253.5, 2u +100

Rams o24.5, 2u -114
C. Kupp o5.5, 2u -150
D. Montgomery o54.5, 2u -110
M. Stafford o.5 rush yard, 2u -125

Lamb o69.5 / Kupp o4.5 / Montgomery o39.5, 2u +146
Cowboys ML / Packers u21.5 / Lamb o79.5 / Rams +10.5 / Stafford o249.5 / Robinson o24.5 / Kupp o4.5, 2u +622
Cowboys ML / Packers u21.5 / Stafford o1.5 rush yards / Kupp o5.5 / Montgomery o49.5 / Rams o24.5, 1u +1950

Cliff notes:

• I have some concerns on Cowboys play. I bet it at opener and I can see the world loves the Packers, the sharps love them... oh well
• Packers and Cowboys have both had a soft schedule, so I cannot put too much stock into "Cowboys only beat bottom feeders"
• Cowboys have advantages at almost every level. Jaire may be hobbled now (not factoring it in tho). Dak + experienced team + defense gives them my money
• Rams & Lions I went back and forth 20x so that tells me to not bet a side and play the numbers
• Rams TT I just love Stafford versus this pass defense and will assume he gets his. With that, it is juicy give me the Kupp receptions. Playoff proven connection here and think he has to rely on him in this one inevitably
• Montgomery similar to Stafford/Kupp I am going to gamble that Campbell sticks with a more proven runner while he relies on his OL. May even make this 4u if @B.A.R. says so
• Stafford rush prop is a fun one, I'll admit, but I mean we are looking for 1 scramble in a playoff game....seems too good to be true so bit

 

[rambler882]

Cowboys ML / Ferguson o3.5, 2u -110

 

[rambler882]

Cowboys -2.5 live, risk 4u

 

[rambler882]

Still -9 in Chicago and in this thread. Fade Fade Fade

Bills -9.5, 2u -120
Bills 1H o12.5, 2u -125
Bills -4 / Niners -3.5, 2u -120
Bills -2.5 / D. Kincaid o24.5, 2u -140
J. Cook o62.5, 2u -110
J. Allen TD, 1u -121
D. Kincaid o35.5, 1u -115
M. Rudolph INT, 1u -132
N. Harris u61.5, 1u -105

Eagles -2.5, 2u -120
D. Smith o66.5, 2u -120
D. Goedert o4.5 / C. Godwin o3.5, 1u +105
D. Goedert o3.5 / C. Godwin o4.5, 1u +105

Bills -5.5 / Eagles ML, 2u +134
J. Allen TD / Bills -5.5 / D. Kincaid o24.5 / J. Cook o49.5 / Eagles ML / D. Goedert o3.5 / C. Godwin o3.5 / D. Smith o49.5, 2u +1651

 

[rambler882]

Still -9 in Chicago and in this thread. Fade Fade Fade

Bills -9.5, 2u -120
Bills 1H o12.5, 2u -125
Bills -4 / Niners -3.5, 2u -120
Bills -2.5 / D. Kincaid o24.5, 2u -140
J. Cook o62.5, 2u -110
J. Allen TD, 1u -121
D. Kincaid o35.5, 1u -115
M. Rudolph INT, 1u -132
N. Harris u61.5, 1u -105

Eagles -2.5, 2u -120
D. Smith o66.5, 2u -120
D. Goedert o4.5 / C. Godwin o3.5, 1u +105
D. Goedert o3.5 / C. Godwin o4.5, 1u +105

Bills -5.5 / Eagles ML, 2u +134
J. Allen TD / Bills -5.5 / D. Kincaid o24.5 / J. Cook o49.5 / Eagles ML / D. Goedert o3.5 / C. Godwin o3.5 / D. Smith o49.5, 2u +1651

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[rambler882]

Finally, +12u on Bills game