Tail or Fade: Week 3

[rambler882]

Week 1: 9-17, -8.1u
Week 2: 16-9, +11.7u

Brandin Cooks o5.5, 1u -110
Brandin Cooks o67.5, 1u -113

Panthers -2 / Dolphins +10, 1u -120
Chargers o23.5, 1u -108
Bears +7.5, 1u -110
Falcons-Giants o47.5, 1u -108
Ravens / Niners, 1u +105
Jets +10.5, 1u -115
Dolphins +3.5, 2u -110
Eagles +3.5, 1u -120
Saquon Barkley o64.5, 1u -113
Adam Thielen o5.5, 1u +106
TJ Hockenson o5.5, 1u -130
Allen Robinson o59.5, 1u -113
Rams o27.5, 1u -110
Rams +7.5 / Falcons +9.5, 1u -130
Kyle Pitts o53.5, 1u -110
Bears +7.5 / Dolphins +3.5, 1u +264
Washington +7, 1u -102
Dolphins +9.5 / Eagles +9.5, 1u -120
DK Metcalf o76.5, .75u -110
DK Metcalf TD, .75u -105
Michael Pittman Jr o49.5, .75u -115
Michael Pittman Jr o4, .75u +100

 

[SIGO]

Good luck this week, chief.

 

[rambler882]

Updated card...

Panthers -2 / Dolphins +10, 1u -120
Chargers o23.5, 1u -108
Bears +7.5, 1u -110
Falcons-Giants o47.5, 1u -108
Ravens / Niners, 1u +105
Jets +10.5, 1u -115
Dolphins +3.5, 2u -110
Eagles +3.5, 1u -120
Saquon Barkley o64.5, 1u -113
Adam Thielen o5.5, 1u +106
TJ Hockenson o5.5, 1u -130
Allen Robinson o59.5, 1u -113
Rams o27.5, 1u -110
Rams +7.5 / Falcons +9.5, 1u -130
Kyle Pitts o53.5, 1u -110
Bears +7.5 / Dolphins +3.5, 1u +264
Washington +7, 1u -102
Dolphins +9.5 / Eagles +9.5, 1u -120

 

[rambler882]

Washington +7, 1u -102
Dolphins +9.5 / Eagles +9.5, 1u -120

 

[rambler882]

Kyle Pitts o53.5, 1u -110
Bears +7.5 / Dolphins +3.5, 1u +264

 

[SIGO]

Updated card...

Panthers -2 / Dolphins +10, 1u -120
Chargers o23.5, 1u -108
Bears +7.5, 1u -110
Falcons-Giants o47.5, 1u -108
Ravens / Niners, 1u +105
Jets +10.5, 1u -115
Dolphins +3.5, 2u -110
Eagles +3.5, 1u -120
Saquon Barkley o64.5, 1u -113
Adam Thielen o5.5, 1u +106
TJ Hockenson o5.5, 1u -130
Allen Robinson o59.5, 1u -113

Talk to me about why you like Miami so much if you don’t mind. Thanks.

 

[guaranteeed]

Gl rambler

 

[rambler882]

Talk to me about why you like Miami so much if you don’t mind. Thanks.

A few things lining up. Perception and value grabbed me at first. Dolphins just got lit up 35-0 and folks are seeing a backup QB come in so instantly there is the over reaction to that. Brissett is possibly better than Tua. Then you flip it and the Raiders perception is at an all time high after starting 2-0. When you ignore records I'd say the Dolphins are a better team in total. Defensively, they are far superior. On the offensive side is where things are a bit more even.

Personally, I think the first 4-5 weeks looking at stats, DVOA, etc. is too skewed. I like using last year as more of an inference on what to expect. Clearly teams improve and I factor that in, but the Raiders OL was a huge strength last year and that unit turned over. I think they got lucky v. Ravens plus that was a team dealing with and trying to figure out how to get around at on of injuries that week. The Steelers suffered a few injuries as well and in general I think they are overrated so people are looking at the Raiders like some lights out team for beating those two. I just am not buying it.

So yea, early on in the season when it comes to sides, I look at value and spots and weight that a bit more than data and results. When it comes to player props I use data, targets, last year v. this year, and if a player in the same position did well vs. the team.

 

[rambler882]

Updated card above

 

[Joco]

Love it rambler gl

 

[SIGO]

A few things lining up. Perception and value grabbed me at first. Dolphins just got lit up 35-0 and folks are seeing a backup QB come in so instantly there is the over reaction to that. Brissett is possibly better than Tua. Then you flip it and the Raiders perception is at an all time high after starting 2-0. When you ignore records I'd say the Dolphins are a better team in total. Defensively, they are far superior. On the offensive side is where things are a bit more even.

Personally, I think the first 4-5 weeks looking at stats, DVOA, etc. is too skewed. I like using last year as more of an inference on what to expect. Clearly teams improve and I factor that in, but the Raiders OL was a huge strength last year and that unit turned over. I think they got lucky v. Ravens plus that was a team dealing with and trying to figure out how to get around at on of injuries that week. The Steelers suffered a few injuries as well and in general I think they are overrated so people are looking at the Raiders like some lights out team for beating those two. I just am not buying it.

So yea, early on in the season when it comes to sides, I look at value and spots and weight that a bit more than data and results. When it comes to player props I use data, targets, last year v. this year, and if a player in the same position did well vs. the team.

Great stuff. Thanks bro.

 

[rambler882]

DK Metcalf o76.5, .75u -110
DK Metcalf TD, .75u -105

 

[rambler882]

Michael Pittman Jr o49.5, .75u -115
Michael Pittman Jr o4, .75u +100

 

[rambler882]

Brandon Aiyuk o32.5, 1u -110

 

[HUNT]

I see some good winners in there