Tail or Fade: Week 10

[rambler882]

Season: 101-86, 54.0%, +6.25u
Week 0-1: 12-7, +3.48u
Week 2: 8-4, +3.1u
Week 3: 7-7, +.82u
Week 4: 12-6, +4.46u
Week 5: 13-11, +.27u
Week 6: 14-10, +2.79u
Week 7: 15-8, +7.3u
Week 8: 10-15, -4.63u
Week 9: 10-18, -11.34u

Nebraska +10 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Clemson -1 / Virginia Tech +10, 1u -128
Clemson -2 / Toledo -2, 1.5u -105
Southern Mississippi +7, 1.5u -114
Texas Tech o33.5, 2u -110
Florida +1.5, 2u -108
Virginia Tech -2.5, 2u -110
West Virginia -3, 2u -110
Baylor -3 / California -2, 2u -115

Temple o22, 1u -110
Utah o31.5, .75u -110

 

[rambler882]

Sides I like pre-lines:
Baylor
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Wake Forest
California
TCU
Arizona St.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

BOL Amigo. Thinking Wake 1h, before ND possibly wears them down

 

[rambler882]

California -2 / Baylor -3, 2u -115
Virginia Tech -2.5, 2u -110

 

[rambler882]

I let work and life stress/bullshit really mess up my betting approach this past weekend. Some people have retail therapy, I have gambling therapy. I essentially wiped out all of my winnings in a 2 day period after doing pretty well all season across CFB & NFL. This happened to me during CBB too and it destroyed my bankroll, I couldn't get out of my own way.

I'm sharing the above not as an excuse, but I do take posting plays serious in case anyone tails and I cause them to lose. My intention always has and will be to help people win and sadly I got so far away from it.

Moving forward I will not have more than 8 plays of CFB or 6 of NFL on Saturday & Sunday. I'll probably still do random action plays during the week as I know myself well enough.

Again, apologies for letting bullshit ruin a good season, but I am going to get back on track and hopefully produce winners for us all. Thanks everyone for letting me rant, rave, and vent on the in-game thread this weekend (and most other weekends).

See you at the window.

 

[rambler882]

I've been digging into the games tonight. Toledo teaser I feel is the best play on the board. NIU defensive statistics and their ability to stop the run is impressive, but I think talent wins out. I'm even considering laying the 7 if the numbers hits it.

Temple/Navy caught my attention simply with Temple playing Army and then a bye. That said, I'm just not certain it makes sense to force a play here. Temple TT or Temple+ may make sense but I'm going to focus my time on going deeper into Toledo.

No opinion on EMU.

 

[B.A.R.]

Breath in, breath out...back to solid capping.

Happens to everyone... that is why it is such a mind f*ck for most of us.

 

[rambler882]

Breath in, breath out...back to solid capping.

Happens to everyone... that is why it is such a mind f*ck for most of us.

Thanks big man. Taking it slow and steady.

Temple o22, 1u -110
Toledo -2 / Clemson -2, 1.5u -105

 

[rambler882]

Probably nothing tonight. Locking in cal-baylor teaser on sunday was uncharacteristic for me and clearly better value now but still like it.

Will give card another run through but as of last night i had nothing.

 

[rambler882]

Giving Utah-UCLA another run through I'm wondering if any value in Utah TT. Will keep digging on this front

 

[rambler882]

Been angling at this all day. Rosen being out had me lower the unit from 1 to .75u. Without him either pushing the Utes offense or causing them to chase could suppress the total.

Utah o31.5, .75u -110

 

[rambler882]

Misreading how Cal & Baylor lines would go this week has really played a game in my head. Will start going deeper into a few games to finalize card in a bit.

 

[rambler882]

aand Virginia Tech moved to +1.5....this is why I never lock in games early. Somehow always moves against me.

 

[rambler882]

West Virginia -3, 2u -110

 

[rambler882]

I have a bit more I want to play. Trying to stick to my "8 Saturday plays" limit I set for myself (I'm not counting Toledo/Clemson). If you have questions or thoughts on any game I reviewed quite a bit so happy to lob out leans and/or opinions.

Nebraska +10 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Clemson -1 / Virginia Tech +10, 1u -128
Clemson -2 / Toledo -2, 1.5u -105
Texas Tech o33.5, 2u -110
Southern Mississippi +7, 1.5u -114
Florida +1.5, 2u -108
Virginia Tech -2.5, 2u -110
West Virginia -3, 2u -110
Baylor -3 / California -2, 2u -115

Edit: Going 2u on Texas Tech over.

 

[rambler882]

Virginia Tech live ml, .5u +300

 

[rambler882]

7-5 for +2.4u

If Virginia Tech hit would have been close to double digit units on the day. Can't complain about getting back on track though. See you in the NFL thread.