Tail or Fade: NFL Week 9

[rambler882]

Week 1: 3-10, -7.67u
Week 2: 8-2, +8.00u
Week 3: 6-3, +4.71u
Week 4: 9-4, +5.41u
Week 5: 7-6, +.19u
Week 6: 3-7, -5.55u
Week 7: 5-9, -.83u
Week 8: 6-10, -5.36u
Season: 47-51, 48.0%, -1.1u

Bears +4, 1u -102
Bears +6, 1u -123
Bears o18.5, 1u -110
Browns -4, -104
Buccaneers o23.5, 3u -115
Buccaneers +10 / Chargers +10, 1u -115
Giants +7, 1u -120
Giants o20.5, .5u -115
Jaguars +1, 1u -103
Jaguars 1H Pk, .75u -105
Lions o24, 2u -105
Panthers / Vikings, 1u +119
Ravens +3.5, 2u -117
Steelers Pk, 2u -111

 

[rambler882]

Week 8 was not kind but I transparently was going a bit crazy as I was in Vegas. Craps and roulette kept me positive though!

Gonna get back on track this week, no doubt. Gear up and thanks for stopping by.

 

[rambler882]

Bears
This is a super buy low situation and a spot play. The Bears have been able to keep almost every game close this season and with their season on the line there is zero doubt they are showing up. Bears defense is the best unit on the field in the game and if the Eagles can exploit Hicks being out that is their best shot. Yup, I'm gambling on the low TT for the Bears here. Eagles secondary is perhaps what is needed for the Bears offense to break out. Let's not forget they could have been up 21-0 in the 1H last week if not for red zone dumbness and lack of execution. The offense has talent.

Browns
Purely a play on a 3rd string QB and Juwaun James being out for Denver. I'm betting on Garrett and company to be able to keep the Broncos 13 or under and holding them to FGs mostly. On the other side of the ball Broncos should contain the Browns and if Flacco was playing I'd probably take the Broncos. In other words, I'll pay to see Allen win this game.

Giants
I love the Leonard Williams trade and their offense is trending up. I'm also looking at the Giants TT and/or FG over in this one. The numbers clearly favor Dallas so label this one an instinct more than anything but I did see in the numbers points should be put up.

Jaguars
Injuries on the Texans side plus they flew in on Friday. I saw what that did to the Bears so I'm going to assume similar to Texans. Another reason why sprinkling on 1H.

Lions
Raiders have a trash secondary, the Lions air it out, Stafford will have success, and honestly the Raiders could put up a few points tied to some defensive injuries for the Lions. I was originally going to play the Lions but the TT is a better play for me.

Ravens
Patriots defense is solid but not elite. Time of possession I think is something that will hurt the Patriots this week and with their defense getting their first real test I'm going for it.

Steelers
This is entirely a feel bet. I think the game is lined right, no real favor or angle for the Steelers, but I just like them a bit in this spot.

 

[rambler882]

Buccaneers TT will be 2u, possibly +6 too
Waiting for Ravens +3.5 but will add another unit to that game
Chargers +4....ugh just entirely another feel game, might tease it up

 

[C-MAN]

Seeing things the same this week. GL!

 

[HUNT]

Go man. Gl.

 

[rambler882]

Adding unit to Ravens +3.5 -115
Panthers / Vikings, 1u +119
Buccaneers +10 / Chargers +10, 1u -115
Bears +6, 1u -123

 

[rambler882]

Buccaneers o23.5, 3u -115

 

[rambler882]

Bears penalties on defense has officially killed the game. Shame.

 

[rambler882]

Bears penalties on defense has officially killed the game. Shame.

Instead of 6-0 with ball at midfield its 12-0.

 

[rambler882]

Bears o7, 1u -130

 

[rambler882]

Disappointing day so far landing break even. I looked back at my text thread with my friend on Friday morning and here were the plays I told him I'm looking into:

Larger plays - Chargers, Buccaneers TT, Panthers
Normal plays - Texans, Bears, Steelers, Lions TT
Considering - Giants, Browns

Between now and then I read too many things and convinced myself off of and onto games or lower units. I read the week right but will only be break even.

3-7, -.21u with Ravens & Giants remaining.

 

[rambler882]

Giants +7, 1u -120
Giants o20.5, .5u -115

The more I reviewed the more I like the Giants on offense so adding their TT on top of this one. Dallas' defensive line advanced stats are leaving a bit to be desired but Dallas should have success on offense. The o48.5 seems solid to me if you're into that sort of thing.

+1.79u on the week so will be a break even week at worst.