Tail or Fade: NFL Week 8

[rambler882]

Week 1: 3-10, -7.67u
Week 2: 8-2, +8.00u
Week 3: 6-3, +4.71u
Week 4: 9-4, +5.41u
Week 5: 7-6, +.19u
Week 6: 3-7, -5.55u
Week 7: 5-9, -.83u
Season: 41-41, 50.0%, +4.26u

Bears -3.5, 1u -108
Bears -3, 1u -130
Broncos +6, 2u -114
Broncos +11 / Lions -1, 1u -115
Browns +13, 1u -125
Browns o16.5, 1u -105
Jets +7, 1u -120
Raiders +7, 1u -125
Buccaneers +2.5, 2u +100
Panthers +6, 1u -118
Rams -7 / OPEN, 1u -105
Eagles Pk, 1u -105
Eagles-Bills 1H u20, 1u +100
Seahawks -8, 1u -105

 

[rambler882]

Still need to review but i like:
Bucs
Bears
Browns and TT
Broncos
Jets

 

[rambler882]

Bears -3.5, 1u -108
Browns +13, 1u -125
Browns o16.5, 1u -105
Raiders +7, 1u -125
Broncos +6, 1u -123

 

[rambler882]

Jets +7, 1u -120
Buccaneers +2.5, 2u +100
Panthers +6, 1u -118
Broncos +11 / Lions -1, 1u -115

Looking deeper at Eagles, Bears

 

[rambler882]

Saw Bench’s weather report. Biting. Each team will be forced to run against two top 5 run defenses in the league. I rarely make a play like this but it folded in nicely to what the data showed.

Eagles-Bills 1H u20, 1u +100

 

[rambler882]

Going with the public here with no Mattt Ryan. I’ll pay to see an already dumpster fire turn it on with Schaub.

Seahawks -8, 1u -105

 

[rambler882]

I'm in Vegas so definitely have the "roll the dice" bug right now haha. Looking into Giants TT o21. Yes I'm on the Lions to win straight up in a teaser but a few of the injuries could give Giants a nice advantage in the run department, waiting on if Snacks Harrison is in or out.

 

[rambler882]

Adding
Broncos +6, 1u -105

2u total at -114

 

[rambler882]

Eagles Pk, 1u -105

Bills 5 wins are Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins. I'll pay to see the win here. I think both teams are relatively even because of the Eagles injuries. Making a play on Dougie, Wentz, and the buy low off a primetime blowout.

 

[rambler882]

Bears -3, 1u -130

My main nervousness is Ingram being back and the Chargers pass rush. I'll admit there is a form of homerism bias but it is now or never and the Bears have the better team.

 

[rambler882]

I'll be losing this week and I knew I went a bit overboard. Lobbing out thoughts for my own benefit here.

Bears - they had every chance to win and blow out the Chargers. I felt the Bears would be able to dominate the 1H and get up by 14+ and they certainly had every opportunity. Settling for FGs and missing FGs left the door wide open for the Chargers.

Panthers was a pure tail of a friend. This was a stay away game for me and now I at least feel good I was right there haha.

Seahawks doing nothing in 2H and the back door hurt. I was contemplating to tease or play the side.

Eagles, Broncos is exactly what I felt would happen based on the numbers, yay me.

Jets I forgot my rule of don't bet bottom 5 teams...yuck.

 

[rambler882]

Oh and Bucs, i honestly did not see any of it but the Jameis 4 TO risk was clearly alive and well.

 

[rambler882]

Bored

Chiefs +6, 1u -120
Chiefs o21, 1u -105