Tail or Fade: NFL Week 6

[rambler882]

YTD: 32-42, 43.2%, -7.78u
Week 1: 7-3-2, +6.32
Week 2: 7-13-1, -5.72
Week 3: 8-4, +5.99
Week 4: 5-10, -4.19
Week 5: 5-12, -10.18u

Chargers +4.5 / Scherzer, risk .5u
Chargers +3, 1u -105
Bengals +14 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Bengals +9, 1u -125
Chiefs -1, 2u -105
Chiefs -2, 1u -105
Chiefs -1.5, 1u -110
Packers -4, 2u -122
Packers -5.5, 1u -118
Redskins +3, 1u -105
Seahawks -6, 2.5u -110
Packers / Seahawks, 2u -115
Seahawks -7, .5u +105
Packers -5.5 / Seahawks -5.5, risk .45u
Colts +3, .5u -103
Colts-Texans o48. .5u -103
Colts +4.5 / o48, risk .5u

 

[rambler882]

Very tough last two weeks combined with my Bears MNF debacle. Bengals was the same deal. It is why I preach flat betting (for the most part) and I've gotten away from it big time. I actually love this NFL card this week and probably will have big plays no matter what.

Seahawks -6 (waiting for -5.5)
Chiefs Pk
Bengals +8.5 (hoping 10)
Packers -4

 

[D-Woww]

we think alike. which means that the last 2 weeks have been shit for us. it sucks. i havent looked at chiefs yet but Reid almost never loses off a bye. I love the seahawks, although i thought Atlanta would come back to earth last week (also sucks i made the bet thinking siemian was playing). Bengals are in 100% must win mode and will be throwing their whole playbook at teh Pats. And playing in Lambeau should finally slow Dak down.

So in theory i like all of these. But thats not a good thing based on how the last few weeks have gone.

 

[XhuegoX]

Chiefs are a great play:
1) IMO, better roster top to bottom
2) better coaching
3) off a bye
4) off an embarrassing performance on national tv

 

[detroit187]

Pack should be good, stregth vs strength in that game Pack Run D vs Cowboys Run O...Dez still gonna be out, think this time it catches up to them. Packers O only concern, seem to still be struggling a bit and could be without Fat Eddie and Starks stinks...Was at game last year there, thinking low scoring, boring like that one. Would love to see it get down to 3.5 and buy the hook.

 

[rambler882]

I agree on all the thoughts and appreciate the shares. Chiming in on the Packers and Cowboys we are looking at a team in Dallas that did not have a real test until the Bengals. Clearly I loved the Bengals and went overboard but they truly did not show up to play that day. Meanwhile, anyone you ask on the streets are saying Dallas is for real. I want to see Dak on the road in Lambeau. I think he hits a wall here meanwhile Rodgers should be able to carve up the Cowboys. You wouldn't know it but the Cowboys have a terrible pass rush and giving Rodgers even a little bit of time is too much.

The Cowboys are not equipped to make a comeback and if Rodgers gets ahead they will pull away. I really like the 4 leans above and I'll be on them anywhere from 2 to 4u in total. Seahawks / Packers ML parlay may be a 2u parlay as well.

 

[rambler882]

Most likely will be on the Chargers, hoping to get +4 without paying extra juice.

 

[rambler882]

Chargers +4.5 / Scherzer, risk .5u

 

[rambler882]

sorry guys, just realized I did not share.

Chargers +3, 1u -105

 

[rambler882]

Seahawks -6, 1.5u -110

Chiefs moved to -1.5 so I'm hoping this settles back to a Pk and I'll lock it in. GB -4 I'm close to just settling on this number and not hoping for -3 as I doubt it'll ever get there. Bengals hit +10 and I'm firing.

 

[rambler882]

Ive been locking in variations ok kc, cin, gb, and sea. Will post final when home.

 

[rambler882]

Skins+3 1u

 

[rambler882]

Bengals +14 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Bengals +9, 1u -125
Chiefs -1, 2u -105
Chiefs -2, 1u -105
Packers -4, 2u -122
Packers -5.5, 1u -118
Redskins +3, 1u -105
Seahawks -6, 2.5u -110
Packers / Seahawks, 2u -115

 

[rambler882]

Chiefs -1.5, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Seahawks -7, .5u +105
Packers -5.5 / Seahawks -5.5, risk .45u

 

[rambler882]

Packers 2h -6, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Colts +3, .5u -103
Colts-Texans o48. .5u -103
Colts +4.5 / o48, risk .5u

 

[rambler882]

Went off the deep end in CFB and NFL for the last two weeks breaking every guideline I typically adhere to and long story short basically ruined my seasons. Going back to basics of never going above 3u on a play and those should be few and far between.

Sorry for handing out losers and will try to get back on track this year.

 

[rambler882]

Jets +7, 1u EV

Putting money on Jets run defense stopping Johnson, the offense slowing the game down to a stop, and Palmer turnovers. Give me the 7.