Tail or Fade | NFL Week 5

[rambler882]

Season: 69-70, +5.08u
Side: 40-30, +10.81u
Parlays & Teasers: 17-22, -0.51u
Props: 12-18, -5.22u

Commanders / Eagles, 2u -102
Commanders / Robinson o39.5 / McLaurin o39.5, 1u +175
Commanders / Robinson TD / Robinson o64.5 / Samuel o2.5 / Dotson o24.5, .5u +577
Bears o19.5, 2u -124
Moore o55.5, 2u -110
Moore o3.5 / Robinson o39.5, 1u +106

Falcons ML / Robinson o39.5, 4u -113
Chiefs-Vikings o52.5, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Alright, betting a ton of shit for TNF. Probably because I'm a fan and am ordering pizza. I'll share some thoughts.

Bears secondary is injured to hell - Johnson, Jackson, Brisker, Gordon all out the last I looked. The Bears have zero pass rush on top of it. The Commanders should have no real issue moving the ball and while they have a shitty OL...again the Bears have literally no pass rush. None. Commanders should have no real issue on this side of the ball and is a big part why I am bullish on their ML.

Commanders defense...their front 4 and pass rush should fuck up the Bears by all measures. Commanders though do give up points and it is because their LBs and secondary are mediocre to shit. I think it'd take Fields playing out of his mind and running for 150 yards for them to win so again, I like the ML quite a bit. That said, I am on the Bears o19.5 The reason is probably because I am an idiotic fan but Fields did play well last week and there is no reason why some type of replica cannot occur. If Fields is somewhat the same as last week and focused on feeding Moore, plus garbage time points, the o19.5 felt like a good price.

Apparently I suck at props but whatever I like them. Robinson, if WSH has any brains, should feed him versus this awful defense and I love the alt line for him. Per the above, I still think Moore is priced too low because of him not getting the ball in a few games but his talent and his continued development with Fields I like the yards and receptions for him.

I do see, read, hear that people are liking the Bears +6...I get it but the other part of this whole thing is Eberflus is apparently getting fired "if they lose" and there is no way to know if the team will rally or not tied to that. I don't think they really like him but who knows, they also don't like being the league embarrassment. Also Eberflus does suck and Rivera is better on a short week.

 

[rambler882]

Yawn, Moore lol

 

[twinkie13]

I’m on that 19’ with ya.

 

[rambler882]

Jaguars +5.5, 3u

 

[rambler882]

Tough week, lots of leans. Went a bit sideways with how I am going to bet. My top sides I did like are Jags, Falcons, Steelers.

Sides
Falcons -2.5, 2u -108
Falcons ML, 1u +150 (boost)
Jaguars +5.5, 3u -110
Bengals -3, 2u -115
Eagles -4, 2u -115
Broncos -2.5, 2u -110
Steelers +4.5, 2u -105
Chiefs-Vikings o52.5, 1u -110

Parlays & Teasers
Falcons / Robinson o39.5 4u -113
Vikings +8.5 / Eagles, 2u +104
Vikings +9.5 / Steelers +11, 1u -120
Colts +8.5 / Jaguars +11.5, 1u -120
Colts +8.5 / Steelers +10, 1u -120
Vikings +8.5 / Jefferson o79.5 / Cousins o249.5, 1u +176
Falcons / Robinson o49.5 / Collins o58.5, .5u +373
Falcons ML / Lions ML / Steelers +8.5 / Eagles ML / Bourne o24.5 / Olave o49.5 / Mixon o49.5 / Kelce o59.5, 1u +2055

Props
Mixon o49.5 / Kelce o59.5, 3u -110
Bourne o2.5, 2u -136
Bourne o31.5, 1u -110
Chase o59.5 / LaPorta o39.5, 1u -118
Hall o39.5 / Henry o24.5, 1u -112
Hall o62.5, 1u -110
Olave o61.5, 1u -110
Taylor TD, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Patriots ML, 2u -124

 

[twinkie13]

Gl bro

 

[rambler882]

Waller o40.5, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Annoying start. Flipped from Saints to NE last minute. Bourne had the targets and dropped balls. Adding ATL -2.5 as ATL my favorite play getting -1.5 and ML all week…

A very frustrating up a few units.

 

[rambler882]

More frustration. First 3u prop type play and Kelce hurt. One of those weeks

 

[rambler882]

More frustration. First 3u prop type play and Kelce hurt. One of those weeks

I flipped on Jets too. Too much chatter in my ear

 

[rambler882]

+11.95u… feels like I lost today somehow. Kelce return was significant

 

[rambler882]

Just realized lost the 8 leg parlay by only Olave…

 

[rambler882]

Degen action.

Niners / u54.5, 1u -110
Kittle o39.5, 1u -110
Kittle o24.5 / Pollard o39.5, 1u -130

 

[B.A.R.]

Kittle

 

[rambler882]

+12.66u

Ill have more degen wins later

 

[C-MAN]

Good week!

 

[rambler882]

Degen time.

Packers +2.5, 2u -110
Packers +3.5 / Dillon o24.5, 1u -110
Watson o48.5, 1u -110
Packers +3.5 / Dillon o46.5 / Watson o48.5, .5u +561

 

[rambler882]

Garoppolo u239.5, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Live

Dillon o55.5, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Packers blow it… shoulda went to +4.5 I guess

+11.86u