Tail or Fade: NFL Week 5

rambler882

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
42-26, +13.44u
Week 1: 8-5, +2.78u
Week 2: 13-5, +7.81u
Week 3: 13-6, +3.17u
Week 4: 8-10, -0.32u

Bears +4, 2u -112
Steelers -7, 1u -115
Texans -6, 1.5u -115
Texans -.5 / Steelers -1.5, 1u -120
Raiders o20.5, 1u -116
Cardinals -7, 1u +100
Darius Slayton o53.5 rec yards, .75u -110
Darius Slayton o4 rec, .75u -120
Giants o22, 2u -110
DK Metcalf o73.5 rec yards, .75u -110
Seahawks 2H o16.5, .75u -115
Cardinals -1.5 / Saints -2, 1u -120
Saints Live ML, .75u -112

Bears o20, 1u -118
Steelers -1 / Seahawks -1, 1u -120

Falcons -2.5, 1.5u -105
Will Fuller o66.5 rec yards, 1u -115
Diontae Johnson o53.5 rec yards, 1u -115
DJ Chark o60.5 rec yards, 1u -110

Titans +3.5, 1u -115
Jonnu Smith o59.5 rec yards, .75u -110
 
Last edited:
I'll have more plays, just waiting on injury news so figured I'd share what I've locked in already. Week 4 I got a little bit cocky after finishing my card 8-6 and up over 3u. Decided to break discipline and bet SNF and MNF games.... 0-4 haha.
 
rambler882 said:
I'll have more plays, just waiting on injury news so figured I'd share what I've locked in already. Week 4 I got a little bit cocky after finishing my card 8-6 and up over 3u. Decided to break discipline and bet SNF and MNF games.... 0-4 haha.
Click to expand...
Would you still play Bears if it was +3?
 
rambler882 said:
I'll have more plays, just waiting on injury news so figured I'd share what I've locked in already. Week 4 I got a little bit cocky after finishing my card 8-6 and up over 3u. Decided to break discipline and bet SNF and MNF games.... 0-4 haha.
Click to expand...
I'm sacrificing value for waiting, as long as it still is within margin. Can't see it going any other way.
GL, it is 2020.
 
Some commentary on the Bears pick. Yes I am a Bears fan and I do call out when it is a "homer" play. This one is not. I'm about to head out to watch it at a friends house, but to hit on a few reasons why I do like the Bears:
  • I love buying low on any team. When the league keeps saying the Bears are bad, overrated, awful, no offense...I'll bite. Yes the offense did not look good, but the Colts defense is top 5. Foles played well below his own ability last week, so even if he plays to his expectation of game manager...they will have success
  • The Bears have a top 10 defense, a legit one. This pass rush will be the toughest one to date for the Bucs. Mack, Quinn, Hicks will pressure Brady.
  • The Bucs defense, omg it is top 5!!! no it isnt. Dig into their opponents and you'll that yes they have a top run stopping unit (the Bears don't try to run too much, it is the Chiefs offense) their pass defense has a bit to be desired. Per the first point, I'm gambling on Foles being average because Robinson, Miller, Mooney (remember this name), Montgomery out of the backfield, and Graham has been serviceable SHOULD have success in the passing game
  • Reverse line movement, yea it catches my eye and a 2+ point move across a few numbers is nothing to ignore. I don't solely look at this stuff but when it happens when I already think there is value on one side it does illicit a larger bet (2u)
  • Random tidbit again on buying low. The Bears were 8-8 last year but people treat them like they were 4-12. They were 2 plays away from being 10-6....sure a "bad 10-6" but 10 wins nonetheless. This isn't a trash team, they just need an average game out of the offense to win
  • Godwin out. That leaves Fuller on Evans and what Fuller is good at is physicality
  • A few more small points but I gotta run. Look out for Roquan Smith on defense....he got back to his old form last week and if that carries through....great news for CHI
 
rambler882 said:
Some commentary on the Bears pick. Yes I am a Bears fan and I do call out when it is a "homer" play. This one is not. I'm about to head out to watch it at a friends house, but to hit on a few reasons why I do like the Bears:
  • I love buying low on any team. When the league keeps saying the Bears are bad, overrated, awful, no offense...I'll bite. Yes the offense did not look good, but the Colts defense is top 5. Foles played well below his own ability last week, so even if he plays to his expectation of game manager...they will have success
  • The Bears have a top 10 defense, a legit one. This pass rush will be the toughest one to date for the Bucs. Mack, Quinn, Hicks will pressure Brady.
  • The Bucs defense, omg it is top 5!!! no it isnt. Dig into their opponents and you'll that yes they have a top run stopping unit (the Bears don't try to run too much, it is the Chiefs offense) their pass defense has a bit to be desired. Per the first point, I'm gambling on Foles being average because Robinson, Miller, Mooney (remember this name), Montgomery out of the backfield, and Graham has been serviceable SHOULD have success in the passing game
  • Reverse line movement, yea it catches my eye and a 2+ point move across a few numbers is nothing to ignore. I don't solely look at this stuff but when it happens when I already think there is value on one side it does illicit a larger bet (2u)
  • Random tidbit again on buying low. The Bears were 8-8 last year but people treat them like they were 4-12. They were 2 plays away from being 10-6....sure a "bad 10-6" but 10 wins nonetheless. This isn't a trash team, they just need an average game out of the offense to win
  • Godwin out. That leaves Fuller on Evans and what Fuller is good at is physicality
  • A few more small points but I gotta run. Look out for Roquan Smith on defense....he got back to his old form last week and if that carries through....great news for CHI
Click to expand...
Awesome thoughts.

Good luck
 
Will Fuller o66.5 rec yards, 1u -115
Darius Slayton o53.5 rec yards, .75u -110
Darius Slayton o4 rec, .75u -120
Diontae Johnson o53.5 rec yards, 1u -115
DJ Chark o60.5 rec yards, 1u -110
 
Sitting in a solid spot entering SNF and MNF. Seattle and New Orleans as 2nd leg of teasers remaining. Being frustrated by the 2 injuries in player props I went back to tally my YTD there. I'm 8-4 for +1.99u on player props. Will keep tracking props to ensure I stay positive on them.
 
11-4-2 for about +7.5u on the week so far with Saints -2 remaining. Didn't know a tie on one leg of a teaser causes the entire thing to push, thanks Bovada! I miss 5Dimes and being able to do ties win.
 
Season: 66-34, +30.25u
Week 1: 8-5, +2.78u
Week 2: 13-5, +7.81u
Week 3: 13-6, +3.17u
Week 4: 8-10, -0.32u
Week 5: 13-4, +9.28u
 
Forgot we have ourselves a Tuesday night game haha. Maybe I try to hit double digit in units this week...

Looking into Bills -3.5 as well as a few props.
 
rambler882 said:
Forgot we have ourselves a Tuesday night game haha. Maybe I try to hit double digit in units this week...

Looking into Bills -3.5 as well as a few props.
Click to expand...
More I look, the more I like Titans.... love them getting all their players back. Lewan, Brown, Jackson.
 
Season: 67-35, +30.43u
Week 1: 8-5, +2.78u
Week 2: 13-5, +7.81u
Week 3: 13-6, +3.17u
Week 4: 8-10, -0.32u
Week 5: 14-5, +9.46u
 
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