Tail or Fade | NFL Week 18 & Futures

[rambler882]

Season: 310-323, -19.3u

The last 2 weeks have been bad which frankly is tied to over betting during the holidays...I do it every year, whoops. Parlays & Teasers are roughly -50u this year. Made it a point to track sides, props, and parlays + teasers to see trending and woof is it alarming. Next year will look to lower the volume of parlays & teasers. To note, when I do alt line prop parlays I mark those as prop bets still. If I do an alt line prop + side, that is a parlay and teasers. Overall actually had a good season all things considered. Lots of bets, lots of entertainment, and whenever I needed to find winners I would to more or less stay even. Anyway, looking forward to a big finish.

Ravens +4, 1u -110
Ravens +3, 1u -110
Bears +3, 4u -115
Ravens +10 / Bears +9, 2u -120
Bills-Dolphins o49, 1u -120
Browns-Bengals u37.5, 1u -114

Texans -2, 1u -110
D. Schultz o45.5, 1u -110
M. Pittman o6.5, 1u -136
M. Pittman o5.5 / N. Collins o49.5, 1u -121

Futures played for tracking purposes
Niners Super Bowl, 3u +967
Eagles Super Bowl, 2u +850
Lions Super Bowl, 2u +2550
Bills Super Bowl, 2u +2950
Jaguars Super Bowl, 1u +2500
Jaguars AFC South Winner, 2u -155
C. Ridley o875.5 rec yards, 2u -112

 

[rambler882]

Ravens thoughts.... relatively straight forward there are a few things I like in their favor. Yes the Steelers have won a few games and Mason Randolph is "hot", but a rivalry game and very motivated backups plus Huntley is the same quality as Randolph I view this as closer to a coin flip. This feels like a very classic "upset" game. Hard to go beyond instincts here because of backups. Just not buying the Steelers offense and willing to pay to be wrong.

Bears the short version is they have a top 10 defense, Packers have a mediocre defense that struggles vs. the run and the situation is similar to the above. If the Bears win this game it is their literal super bowl. If this was week 10, I'd still hammer the Bears, love the matchup.

Texans I'm going with as an action play, I see this game as a coin flip so I'm going with the better QB and the team I want to see win. Regarding Pittman props the matchup is great for him and the defense Texans run, he should get 10+ targets. Colts are a bottom 10 defense v. tight ends, Stroud only has Collins and Schultz to throw to so playing the percentages here.

 

[C-MAN]

Funny, we got to the same conclusion but for different reasons. I actually trust the Steelers offense more than their defense today. If it wasn’t for these games historically being low scoring and the shitty weather, I would like the over. I think both teams will move the ball today, but likely stall in the RZ and settle for FGs.

 

[rambler882]

Funny, we got to the same conclusion but for different reasons. I actually trust the Steelers offense more than their defense today. If it wasn’t for these games historically being low scoring and the shitty weather, I would like the over. I think both teams will move the ball today, but likely stall in the RZ and settle for FGs.

Fair, simplest terms there isnt as big a gap in talent even if backups. Did a light skim of prior week 17 / 18s. It is a coin flip on these types of situations ATS but rarely saw blowouts

 

[CJG]

@rambler882 How much you think weather may affect Ravens/Steelers?

I like Ravens +3 but may ALT line it along with the under

 

[rambler882]

@rambler882 How much you think weather may affect Ravens/Steelers?

I like Ravens +3 but may ALT line it along with the under

Rain slows game down, makes it harder to keep footing typically. The wind is borderline high but with rain passing the ball should be more difficult all things factored in.

The line reflects all of this. I tend to not touch too many O/U and with weather I stay away so not a great resource on this one

 

[rambler882]

Way it bounces sometime. In an ugly game a 71yd td screws us on ravens. Schultz prop barely misses but that is the way it goes, have too many prop losses by less than 2 yards to count.

Will be back at it today.

 

[rambler882]

Sides
Bears +3, 8u -115
Titans +3.5, 4u -111
Bills -3, 3u -104
Niners -4, 2u -114
Falcons +3, 2u -110
Vikings +4, 2u -110
Seahawks -3, 2u +100
Patriots -1.5, 1u -115
Bills-Dolphins o49, 1u -120
Browns-Bengals u37.5, 1u -114
Broncos-Raiders u37.5, 1u -105

Parlays & Teasers
Bears +9 / Ravens +10, 2u -120
Bears +9 / Titans +9.5, 1u -120
Bears +9 / Falcons +9, 1u -120
Cowboys -7 / Panthers +10, 1u -120
Cowboys -7 / Titans +9.5, 1u -120

Props
A. Thielen o4.5, 2u -136
DK Metcalf o67.5, 2u -115
D. Hopkins o66.5, 2u -110
J. Mason TD, 2u +180
D. Slayton o43.5, 1u -115
A. Jones o19.5 rec yards, 1u -110
B. Robinson o61.5, 1u -110
J. Fields o55.5, 1u -110
DK Metcalf o49.5 / D. Hopkins o49.5, 1u -111

 

[rambler882]

Not posted on sites yet but looking at Ekeler yards, Z. White yards. May gamble on Ronnie Bell and P. Strong Jr. props as well

 

[rambler882]

Sides
Bears +3, 8u -115
Titans +3.5, 4u -111
Bills -3, 3u -104
Niners -4, 2u -114
Falcons +3, 2u -110
Vikings +4, 2u -110
Seahawks -3, 2u +100
Patriots -1.5, 1u -115
Bills-Dolphins o49, 1u -120
Browns-Bengals u37.5, 1u -114
Broncos-Raiders u37.5, 1u -105

Parlays & Teasers
Bears +9 / Ravens +10, 2u -120
Bears +9 / Titans +9.5, 1u -120
Bears +9 / Falcons +9, 1u -120
Cowboys -7 / Panthers +10, 1u -120
Cowboys -7 / Titans +9.5, 1u -120

Props
A. Thielen o4.5, 2u -136
DK Metcalf o67.5, 2u -115
D. Hopkins o66.5, 2u -110
J. Mason TD, 2u +180
D. Slayton o43.5, 1u -115
A. Jones o19.5 rec yards, 1u -110
B. Robinson o61.5, 1u -110
J. Fields o55.5, 1u -110
DK Metcalf o49.5 / D. Hopkins o49.5, 1u -111

B. Robinson o39.5 / Falcons +8.5 / D. Hopkins o49.5 / Titans +8.5 / Bears +8.5 / J. Ferguson o24.5 / DK Metcalf o49.5 / J. Allen o199.5, 2u +999

 

[rambler882]

Titans +4.5 / D. Hopkins o49.5 / Falcons +4.5 / A. Thielen o4.5 / Bears +4.5 / DK Metcalf o49.5 / Bills ML, .5u +2159
Falcons +3 / Bears +3 / Titans +3.5 / Panthers +3.5 / Vikings +4 / Seahawks ML / Bills ML, .5u +6435

 

[rambler882]

Bills ML / Z. White o49.5, 2u +106

 

[rambler882]

Welp. -36u. Worst day of gambling life. Went big on bears and the OL was one of the worst displays Ive seen in ages.

Way it goes. Was having a great season up until about 2-3 weeks ago. Now in too big a hole. Woof, oh well.

 

[rambler882]

Apologies on the abysmal day, plus big miss on Bears. Giving up 13-17 is where I had the defense but 3 fgs, awful play calling, and frankly a lazy OL killed us.

-32.59u on week. A kick in teeth but the plan is to end season even after playoffs. Will get it there.