Tail or Fade: NFL Week 17

rambler882

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Season: -7.04u

After a 6 week stretch of -72.5u.... Here we are, clawed enough back. Locked in a few.

Packers -3, 4u -112
Chiefs 1H -6.5, 2u -120
Jets ML, 2u -126
 
Shitty beats on those player props. Davis had 30 yards in the 1H at some point and landed on 39... Haskins was sitting at 40 and they gave garbage time hand offs to some random dude who cruised for 20+... oh well.

Below is how I'll be focusing most if not all of my player props the final two weeks.

www.si.com

NFL player bonuses and who’s chasing millions of dollars - Sports Illustrated

Here’s who needs touchdowns, sacks, interceptions, pick-sixes, fumble recoveries, passing yards, rushing yards, receptions and field goals to cash in with two weeks left.
www.si.com www.si.com
 
Updated Card.

Packers -3, 4u -112
Packers / Buccaneers, 1u +137
Packers / Elliot TD, 1u +139
Packers / Montgomery o39.5, 1u +106
Jets ML, 3u -126
Ravens ML, 3u -126
Ravens / Chiefs, 2u +101
Buccaneers -3.5, 3u -110
Rams +7, 2u -125
Chiefs 1H -6.5, 2u -120
Bengals o24, 2u -116
Jaguars 1H -2.5, 2u -110
Commanders / Niners 1H ML, 2u +135
Dolphins +3, 1u -110
Saints +5.5, 1u -105

Falcons -.5 / Saints +11.5, 2u -120
Bears +11 / Browns +8, 1u -120
Bears +11 / Dolphins +9, 1u -120
Rams +13.5 / Dolphins +10 / Niners -2.5, 2u +120

Russell Wilson o219.5, 2u -110
Brian Robinson, 1u -110
Jamaal Williams o49.5, 1u -110
JuJu Smith-Schuster o55.5, 1u -110
Tyler Allgeier o75.5, 1u -110
Tyler Higbee o36.5, 1u -110
Zay Jones o45.5, 1u -110
Cam Akers TD, 1u +130

Buccaneers / Saints +8.5 / Allgeier o59.5 / Robinson o59.5 / Williams o39.5 / Wilson o199.5 / Jets / Packers / Ravens, 1u +4839
 
Quick run down.

Packers. Vikings are overrated as can be, well documented. Packers have the world to play for, all the momentum and should be able to control this game on the ground. Jefferson is always a risk but the Packers do well versus the pass. If Vikings win it will most likely be tied to them running the ball. All in all, Love the spot for the Packers and believe they can run away with this with a focused Rodgers.

Ravens. Steelers hot but they've been playing pretty shitty teams mostly. Jackson got hurt in the last game and it definitely through the Ravens off a bit but they still won on the road. I like being able to get the ML under -130 and in these low scoring affairs having Tucker really is a huge difference. Should be low scoring

Jets. Instinct more than anything but love a defense that travels versus an overrated team that has come back down to earth. Throw in Mike White to give the offense some juice and off we go.

Buccaneers. Buy low opportunity with players coming back from injury. Carolina has been a great buy when playing teams similar to them in power rankings/DVOA but the Buccaneers are a step up. Brady struggles are documented but OL is not great. Donovan Smith supposed to be back so I'm biting on the much more talented team playing to win division

Jaguars. I'm too pussy to play them because of all the talk of resting players. Could see them winning by 20+ though. I played 1H

Player props tied to incentives - Williams, JuJu, Higbee, Jones

Wilson. If the Broncos are in this game it is because Wilson is doing well. If Broncos get blown out I'm betting on good garbage time yards. 219.5 just feels so eff'ing low and too much of a reflection tied to last week
 
rambler882 said:
Quick run down.

Packers. Vikings are overrated as can be, well documented. Packers have the world to play for, all the momentum and should be able to control this game on the ground. Jefferson is always a risk but the Packers do well versus the pass. If Vikings win it will most likely be tied to them running the ball. All in all, Love the spot for the Packers and believe they can run away with this with a focused Rodgers.

Ravens. Steelers hot but they've been playing pretty shitty teams mostly. Jackson got hurt in the last game and it definitely through the Ravens off a bit but they still won on the road. I like being able to get the ML under -130 and in these low scoring affairs having Tucker really is a huge difference. Should be low scoring

Jets. Instinct more than anything but love a defense that travels versus an overrated team that has come back down to earth. Throw in Mike White to give the offense some juice and off we go.

Buccaneers. Buy low opportunity with players coming back from injury. Carolina has been a great buy when playing teams similar to them in power rankings/DVOA but the Buccaneers are a step up. Brady struggles are documented but OL is not great. Donovan Smith supposed to be back so I'm biting on the much more talented team playing to win division

Jaguars. I'm too pussy to play them because of all the talk of resting players. Could see them winning by 20+ though. I played 1H

Player props tied to incentives - Williams, JuJu, Higbee, Jones

Wilson. If the Broncos are in this game it is because Wilson is doing well. If Broncos get blown out I'm betting on good garbage time yards. 219.5 just feels so eff'ing low and too much of a reflection tied to last week
Click to expand...
Too many talking heads influencing me nowadays. Add/change too many picks that bite me. Oh well
 
rambler882 said:
Updated Card.

Packers -3, 4u -112
Packers / Buccaneers, 1u +137
Packers / Elliot TD, 1u +139
Packers / Montgomery o39.5, 1u +106
Jets ML, 3u -126
Ravens ML, 3u -126
Ravens / Chiefs, 2u +101
Buccaneers -3.5, 3u -110
Rams +7, 2u -125
Chiefs 1H -6.5, 2u -120
Bengals o24, 2u -116
Jaguars 1H -2.5, 2u -110
Commanders / Niners 1H ML, 2u +135
Dolphins +3, 1u -110
Saints +5.5, 1u -105

Falcons -.5 / Saints +11.5, 2u -120
Bears +11 / Browns +8, 1u -120
Bears +11 / Dolphins +9, 1u -120
Rams +13.5 / Dolphins +10 / Niners -2.5, 2u +120

Russell Wilson o219.5, 2u -110
Brian Robinson, 1u -110
Jamaal Williams o49.5, 1u -110
JuJu Smith-Schuster o55.5, 1u -110
Tyler Allgeier o75.5, 1u -110
Tyler Higbee o36.5, 1u -110
Zay Jones o45.5, 1u -110
Cam Akers TD, 1u +130

Buccaneers / Saints +8.5 / Allgeier o59.5 / Robinson o59.5 / Williams o39.5 / Wilson o199.5 / Jets / Packers / Ravens, 1u +4839
Click to expand...
Jets gonna be only missed leg…
 
Diggs TD / Diggs o75.5 / Higgins TD / Allen o39.5 / McKenzie o22.5 / Burrow o249.5, .5u +2729
 
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