Tail or Fade | NFL Week 13

rambler882

rambler882

2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
204-175, +29.86u

Eagles may end up being one of my larger/largest wagers of the year. More to come.
Eagles -1.5 / CLOSED, 4u -120
Eagles -7, 2u -109

Lions -2.5, 4u -115
Lions -3, 2u -104
Chiefs -3, 4u -114
Rashee Rice o74.5, 2u -114
Lamar Jackson o25.5 rushing, 1u -114
Lamar Jackson TD, 1u +235
Ja’Marr Chase o92.5, 1u -114

Bills -4, 4u -109
 
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Alright, let's gooooooo!!

Tell me about this Eagles bet, other than the bounce back?

And you know I'm aware the Bears beat the teams that they should and lose to the ones that we expect them to.
 
Gesicki o3.5, 4u -138
Gesicki o4.5, 1u +232 (boost)

May end up being 5u play. Biggest prop of year. Gesicki averages 4.5 targets from Burrow and it goes up to 7.5 when Higgins out. He has a 78% catch rate. Putting him conservatively at 6 receptions vs Ravens who aint the best v TEs.

The 3.5 is one of the better values I’ve seen all season.

Edit: increasing to 4u.
 
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Doing some cleanup for Thursday.

Lions -2.5, 4u -115
Lions -3, 2u -104

Chiefs -3, 4u -114
Chiefs / Gesicki o2.5, 1u -102
Patrick Mahomes o274.5, 2u -112
Rashee Rice o74.5, 2u -114

Mike Gesicki o3.5, 4u -138
Mike Gesicki o4.5, 1u +232
Ja'Marr Chase o92.5, 1u -114
Lamar Jackson o25.5 rushing, 1u -114
Lamar Jackson TD, 1u +235
Bengals +13.5 / Eagles -1, 2u -125

Lions / Chiefs / Rice o59.5 / Chase o69.5, 1u +550
 
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B.A.R. said:
Alright, let's gooooooo!!

Tell me about this Eagles bet, other than the bounce back?

And you know I'm aware the Bears beat the teams that they should and lose to the ones that we expect them to.
Click to expand...
Less of a bounce back as I've been waiting to bet against the Bears and the stars are aligning here. Focusing on the Bears first each of their wins are nail biters or last drive heroics. To say, 8-3 could be 4-7 just as easy. Caleb has improved but he is inaccurate too much and inevitably this will bite them. They've played mostly terrible defenses and their strength of schedule is bottom 5 in the league. Their defense even with Jaylon Johnson back will have injuries and a bottom 10 defensive line at best.

Eagles are more or less the opposite of this. Top 5 strength of schedule, top 5-ish defense, and while Lane Johnson injury does hurt their OL is still a mismatch. Saquon will run all over the Bears in my opinion which then is going to add even more pressure on the LB/CB with Goedert, Smith, Brown. The Eagles defense will be the best the Bears have seen and I do expect to see a significant regression from what we've seen. Christ even Jeanty rolled the Bears.

Beyond discipline this is screaming to be a 10u type of play for me but the "any given sunday" is always in my head. This is the game that the Eagles should win by 14+
 
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Eagles -7, 14u -109
Eagles 1H -3.5, 3u -118
Eagles 1H o13.5, 2u -111
Eagles o25.5, 4u -118
Eagles -1.5 / CLOSED, 4u -120
Eagles -1 / CLOSED, 2u -125
Eagles -2.5 / Colgate ML, 2u -142
Saquon Barkley o74.5, 2u -114
Saquon Barkley o76.5, 2u -114
Saquon Barkley o78.5, 2u -112
Saquon Barkley TD, 3u -121
Eagles -5.5 / Barkley o77.5, 1u +238

Swift o1.5, 3u -148 @ScopeY
 
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rambler882 said:
Eagles -7, 14u -109
Eagles 1H -3.5, 3u -118
Eagles 1H o13.5, 2u -111
Eagles o25.5, 4u -118
Eagles -1.5 / CLOSED, 4u -120
Eagles -1 / CLOSED, 2u -125
Eagles -2.5 / Colgate ML, 2u -142
Saquon Barkley o74.5, 2u -114
Saquon Barkley o76.5, 2u -114
Saquon Barkley o78.5, 2u -112
Saquon Barkley TD, 3u -121
Eagles -5.5 / Barkley o77.5, 1u +238

Swift o1.5, 3u -148 @ScopeY
Click to expand...
Scattered a few more units about. Biggest wager of my life and clearly on a single game with all the variations of plays and props. Ice water.....
 
Basically back to flat after being up near 80u on season. Eagles game was a stinger as I've never made a wager like that in my life. Oof.

Side
Cardinals +3.5, 4u -110
Bills -4, 4u -109 (made before tackles announced out, do not recommend)
Saints +5.5, 3u -114
Commanders +6, 3u -108
Seahawks -11.5, 2u -115
Titans +6, 2u -113
Chargers -9.5, 2u -112
Browns +5.5, 2u -105

Prop
Chris Olave o5.5, 2u -122
Harold Fannin Jr. o3.5, 2u -122
Cam Ward o202.5, 2u -112
Zach Charbonnet o32.5, 2u -112
Kimani Vidal o66.5, 2u -107
Travis Etienne o63.5, 1u -112
Breece Hall o72.5, 1u -112
Breece Hall TD, 1u +145
Daniel Jones u222.5, 1u -112
Kyle Pitts Sr. o43.5, 1u -112
Kyle Pitts Sr. o4.5, 1u +100
Nico Collins o65.5, 1u -112
Quinson Judkins o69.5, 1u -108
Puka Nacua TD, 1u +105
Christian Kirk o2.5, 1u +124

Exotic
Cardinals +9 / Rams -4, 4u -120
Saints +11 / Browns +11, 2u -120
Seahawks -6 / Chargers -4, 2u -120
Colts / CLOSED, 1u +130
 
Troy Franklin o52.5, 3u -112

Got lucky hit a live 3 team parlay for 7u. Saints+9.5 Jets pk Cards+3.5
 
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