Tail or Fade: NFL Week 13

rambler882

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Season: 113-86, 56.8%, +26.09u
Week 1: 9-10, -1.21u
Week 2: 9-7, +2.2u
Week 3: 16-5, +10.32u
Week 4: 6-5, +3.34u
Week 5: 9-11, -1.72u
Week 6: 9-4, +6.7u
Week 7: 9-10, -1.64u
Week 8: 9-3, +8.0u
Week 9: 8-9, -2.43u
Week 10: 7-3, +3.25u
Week 11: 9-14, -7.16u
Week 12: 13-5, +6.44u

Saints -7, .75u -110

Broncos -4, .5u -108
Broncos -5, 1u -103
Browns +6, 1.5u -116
Buccaneers o25.5, 1u -110
Packers -13, .75u -109
Ravens o23, .75u -110
Ravens +8 / Seahawks -5, .5u -105
Seahawks -9.5, .75u -108
Steelers -3, 1u -111
Vikings +11 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Vikings o22, .75u -110
Lions o23, .75u -110
Lions +17 / Chiefs -9, .75u -115
 
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Saints. My original hope entering my analysis was to play the Cowboys TT but with Tyron Smith out & my belief in Saints front 7 I stayed away. I don't like backing big road favorites but every single data point, eye test, etc. points to the Saints. Normally would stay away but putting a small wager on them.

Very well this can be the week they don't show up and get rolled so don't be too surprised. BOL anyway you play it.
 
rambler882 said:
Saints. My original hope entering my analysis was to play the Cowboys TT but with Tyron Smith out & my belief in Saints front 7 I stayed away. I don't like backing big road favorites but every single data point, eye test, etc. points to the Saints. Normally would stay away but putting a small wager on them.

Very well this can be the week they don't show up and get rolled so don't be too surprised. BOL anyway you play it.
Click to expand...
The week they didn't show up.
 
Apologies on the late post.

Broncos -4, .5u -108
Broncos -5, 1u -103
Browns +6, 1.5u -116
Buccaneers o25.5, 1u -110
Packers -13, .75u -109
Ravens o23, .75u -110
Ravens +8 / Seahawks -5, .5u -105
Seahawks -9.5, .75u -108
Steelers -3, 1u -111
Vikings +11 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Vikings o22, .75u -110
 
Tough week where a few games could have gone my way. Bucs TT (fumble on 1), Chiefs -9 (Oak late FG), Steelers -3 (2H collapse). If 2 of those hit then not so bad of a week but it happens.

Eagles -6, 1u -101
 
Thanks for swinging by. I'll start by saying that Thompson & Crowder active is a big boost but it is hard for me to factor in right now. What my play boils down to is more instinct than anything. This is not an overreaction to TNF but typically I would have teased and/or played Cowboys. Instead I went with what the data showed and it was Saints.

Similar here. The data shows a very evenly matched up team. What I cannot account for is the difference between McCoy v. Smith in the numbers but logically speaking it is a downgrade. I also think backups tend to do worse the 2nd time around as teams get to game plan.

I hate the injuries on the Eagles side of the ball however majority of their games not against the Saints this defense still actually kept teams sub 20. I believe YTD they are 20 PPG and if you exclude Saints game it is more like 17. Eagles front 7 should beat up the battered OL of Redskins. The best play on the board in my opinion is Redskins TT u20 but no way I'm playing that in primetime.

So, I then went about this with an angle of how well do I believe the Eagles offense will do. Yes Norman will limit whoever he covers but he isn't covering Ertz. At some point Wentz should have himself a game and with Tate having a few weeks under his belt I'm taking a calculated bet this is it. Redskins are not great against the run and while the Eagles have yet establish it, I am trusting Pederson attempts to and "if" they do.....Wentz can exploit it. Flip side, I'm not putting money behind McCoy to really take advantage of all the injuries on the Eagles.

All in all, it is MNF, I want to gamble, and I'm going with instinct with a layer of methodology.
 
Eagles dominating entire game. 90yd run, stuffed on 1yd line, and int in end zone. This game could be 24-6.
 
Season: 122-96, 56.0%, +23.23u
Week 1: 9-10, -1.21u
Week 2: 9-7, +2.2u
Week 3: 16-5, +10.32u
Week 4: 6-5, +3.34u
Week 5: 9-11, -1.72u
Week 6: 9-4, +6.7u
Week 7: 9-10, -1.64u
Week 8: 9-3, +8.0u
Week 9: 8-9, -2.43u
Week 10: 7-3, +3.25u
Week 11: 9-14, -7.16u
Week 12: 13-5, +6.44u
Week 13: 9-10, -2.86u


Live betting Eagles paid off.
 
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