Tail or Fade: NFL Week 12

rambler882

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Season: 100-81, +19.65u
Week 1: 9-10, -1.21u
Week 2: 9-7, +2.2u
Week 3: 16-5, +10.32u
Week 4: 6-5, +3.34u
Week 5: 9-11, -1.72u
Week 6: 9-4, +6.7u
Week 7: 9-10, -1.64u
Week 8: 9-3, +8.0u
Week 9: 8-9, -2.43u
Week 10: 7-3, +3.25u
Week 11: 9-14, -7.16u

Falcons 2H o10.5, 1u -125
Bills +3, 1u +100
Broncos +3, 1u +100
Broncos +9 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Browns +1, .75u -105
Browns o23, 1u -110
Dolphins +10, 1u -125
Ravens -12.5, 1u -105
Ravens -6 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Vikings -3, 1.5u -115
Eagles / Vikings, .75u +130

Falcons o23.5, 1u -110
Falcons o24, 2u -110
Redskins +7, .75u -110
Eagles-Giants o48, 1u -115
Niners o26.5, 1u -110

Dolphins +14 / OPEN, 1u +101
Ravens -6 / OPEN, 1u -115

Texans / Ravens / Patriots, 1u +108
 
Last edited:
Good luck this week.

Any Chicago people that live in the area sure are coming out in full force this week.
 
RetroVK said:
Best of luck .... gonna lose by a lot more than the line if they don't hit 24 ...
Click to expand...
Hah. Yea i lost my mind last week bc was on tilt due to slaughter on saturday...never a good move but feel i learned maybe something. Oh yea, to not take a side vs brees. I love the falcons here and normally id take side and TT but going with 2u.

Saints D improving but they thrive on stopping run. If Falcons have an obvious gameplan if pass, short quick routes, timely bombs... 27+ should be there in 3rd.
 
rambler882 said:
Hah. Yea i lost my mind last week bc was on tilt due to slaughter on saturday...never a good move but feel i learned maybe something. Oh yea, to not take a side vs brees. I love the falcons here and normally id take side and TT but going with 2u.

Saints D improving but they thrive on stopping run. If Falcons have an obvious gameplan if pass, short quick routes, timely bombs... 27+ should be there in 3rd.
Click to expand...
Also the most classic buy low, sell high moment. Falcons will show up because of record, divisional rival, and ill lob out the dome as a factor to create points.
 
Bummer. Meant to lock in skins at +8. Missed xp and a terrible no call at end of game hurts.
 
rambler882 said:
Adding a 3rd unit to Falcons TT
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At a minimum should of had 14 if not 17 in first. Two turnovers kill this big play.

Feel like no matter what if i make a play it will lose. When i dont wager a play i like it hits. This is getting ridiculous.
 
rambler882 said:
At a minimum should of had 14 if not 17 in first. Two turnovers kill this big play.

Feel like no matter what if i make a play it will lose. When i dont wager a play i like it hits. This is getting ridiculous.
Click to expand...
8 turnovers on season. 3 tonight with 2 in scoring territory. Complete and utter failure. Really explored this game and the TT was such a good play.

Why its gambling but beyond frustrating. Such a fucking rut.
 
Had a teaser with the over. Should have hit no issues.....had last week over that should have hit with Nola VS eagles.... Crazy losses.
 
Remaining Card.

Bills +3, 1u +100
Broncos +3, 1u +100
Broncos +9 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Browns +1, .75u -105
Browns o23, 1u -110
Dolphins +10, 1u -125
Dolphins +14 / OPEN, 1u +101
Eagles / Vikings, .75u +130
Eagles-Giants o48, 1u -115
Niners o26.5, 1u -110
Ravens -12.5, 1u -105
Ravens -6 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Ravens -6 / OPEN, 1u -115
Texans / Ravens / Patriots, 1u +108
Vikings -3, 1.5u -115
 
Quick hits.

Bills +3, 1u +100.... Fading Jaguars in the hope they give up. Allen being back put me over the edge + love Bills defense.
Broncos +3, 1u +100...underrated Broncos defense matches up relatively well against Steelers. Broncos offense should be able to keep this close
Broncos +9 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Browns +1, .75u -105....main hesitation is the Hue Jackson helping Bengals angle. I sort of forgot I told myself to stay off of this. That said, matchup favors Browns defense significantly
Browns o23, 1u -110....Bengals defense sucks. Not over complicating it
Dolphins +10, 1u -125...Not a direct play on Tannehill but similar to Allen getting a better QB pushed me over the edge. I like Fins off a bye, Colts sell high, and double digits is just too much. Did not over analyze and is entirely a sell high play
Dolphins +14 / OPEN, 1u +101
Eagles / Vikings, .75u +130
Eagles-Giants o48, 1u -115....Eagles have no DBs, Giants can put up at least 17, if Eagles wake up on offense 27+ is realistic. I'll just fade injuries and put money against offensive talent in OBJ+Saquon v. Wentz & crew
Niners o26.5, 1u -110...fading TB defense + a play on Shanahan
Ravens -12.5, 1u -105....cross country bad team off a win against a shitty cardinals that they acted like was a super bowl. Ravens could win by 30
Ravens -6 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Ravens -6 / OPEN, 1u -115
Texans / Ravens / Patriots, 1u +108...wanted Texans ML for now but cannot endorse this play entirely. I love their defensive matchup v. Titans, at home, after owner dies, and for whatever reason I'm not impressed by the Titans like most other people
Vikings -3, 1.5u -115.....data favors Vikings, my favorite play of the week (after Falcons TT, that worked out well) but against Rodgers so just sticking to 1.5u
 
9-5, +2.38u. Nice comeback after Falcons debacle. Hit 2 first leg of teasers too.

Vikings -3
Vikings ML to close parlay
Texans ML to close parlay
 
Vikings get us there and we are sitting around +4.5u on the week. If it weren't for the Falcons debacle we would be around +8u or so but that is part of the game. Just glad that sticking to my guns and firing like I normally would v. hesitating paid off.

Texans ML to close out the week.
 
Season: 113-86, 56.8%, +26.09u
Week 1: 9-10, -1.21u
Week 2: 9-7, +2.2u
Week 3: 16-5, +10.32u
Week 4: 6-5, +3.34u
Week 5: 9-11, -1.72u
Week 6: 9-4, +6.7u
Week 7: 9-10, -1.64u
Week 8: 9-3, +8.0u
Week 9: 8-9, -2.43u
Week 10: 7-3, +3.25u
Week 11: 9-14, -7.16u
Week 12: 13-5, +6.44u
 
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