Tail or Fade: NFL Week 12

[rambler882]

Season: 100-81, +19.65u
Week 1: 9-10, -1.21u
Week 2: 9-7, +2.2u
Week 3: 16-5, +10.32u
Week 4: 6-5, +3.34u
Week 5: 9-11, -1.72u
Week 6: 9-4, +6.7u
Week 7: 9-10, -1.64u
Week 8: 9-3, +8.0u
Week 9: 8-9, -2.43u
Week 10: 7-3, +3.25u
Week 11: 9-14, -7.16u

Falcons 2H o10.5, 1u -125
Bills +3, 1u +100
Broncos +3, 1u +100
Broncos +9 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Browns +1, .75u -105
Browns o23, 1u -110
Dolphins +10, 1u -125
Ravens -12.5, 1u -105
Ravens -6 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Vikings -3, 1.5u -115
Eagles / Vikings, .75u +130

Falcons o23.5, 1u -110
Falcons o24, 2u -110
Redskins +7, .75u -110
Eagles-Giants o48, 1u -115
Niners o26.5, 1u -110

Dolphins +14 / OPEN, 1u +101
Ravens -6 / OPEN, 1u -115

Texans / Ravens / Patriots, 1u +108

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck this week.

Any Chicago people that live in the area sure are coming out in full force this week.

 

[rambler882]

Good luck this week.

Any Chicago people that live in the area sure are coming out in full force this week.

Chase Daniel era.

Redskins +7, .75u -110

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I agree with Redskins. Also trust Nagy and Bear D. I played them -3/100. I think they play well. Happy Thanksgiving.

 

[rambler882]

I agree with Redskins. Also trust Nagy and Bear D. I played them -3/100. I think they play well. Happy Thanksgiving.

Hope youre right! Tight urnaround has me worried.

 

[rambler882]

Falcons o24, 1u -110

 

[RetroVK]

Best of luck .... gonna lose by a lot more than the line if they don't hit 24 ...

 

[rambler882]

Ravens -6 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Ravens -6 / OPEN, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Best of luck .... gonna lose by a lot more than the line if they don't hit 24 ...

Hah. Yea i lost my mind last week bc was on tilt due to slaughter on saturday...never a good move but feel i learned maybe something. Oh yea, to not take a side vs brees. I love the falcons here and normally id take side and TT but going with 2u.

Saints D improving but they thrive on stopping run. If Falcons have an obvious gameplan if pass, short quick routes, timely bombs... 27+ should be there in 3rd.

 

[rambler882]

Hah. Yea i lost my mind last week bc was on tilt due to slaughter on saturday...never a good move but feel i learned maybe something. Oh yea, to not take a side vs brees. I love the falcons here and normally id take side and TT but going with 2u.

Saints D improving but they thrive on stopping run. If Falcons have an obvious gameplan if pass, short quick routes, timely bombs... 27+ should be there in 3rd.

Also the most classic buy low, sell high moment. Falcons will show up because of record, divisional rival, and ill lob out the dome as a factor to create points.

 

[rambler882]

Bummer. Meant to lock in skins at +8. Missed xp and a terrible no call at end of game hurts.

 

[rambler882]

Adding a 3rd unit to Falcons TT

 

[rambler882]

Adding a 3rd unit to Falcons TT

At a minimum should of had 14 if not 17 in first. Two turnovers kill this big play.

Feel like no matter what if i make a play it will lose. When i dont wager a play i like it hits. This is getting ridiculous.

 

[rambler882]

Falcons 2H o10.5, 1u -125

 

[rambler882]

At a minimum should of had 14 if not 17 in first. Two turnovers kill this big play.

Feel like no matter what if i make a play it will lose. When i dont wager a play i like it hits. This is getting ridiculous.

8 turnovers on season. 3 tonight with 2 in scoring territory. Complete and utter failure. Really explored this game and the TT was such a good play.

Why its gambling but beyond frustrating. Such a fucking rut.

 

[rambler882]

Omg fuck this. 2h TT bc Ridley tries to stiff arm at the 2. Seriously fuck this bs

 

[NOLA]

Had a teaser with the over. Should have hit no issues.....had last week over that should have hit with Nola VS eagles.... Crazy losses.

 

[rambler882]

Remaining Card.

Bills +3, 1u +100
Broncos +3, 1u +100
Broncos +9 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Browns +1, .75u -105
Browns o23, 1u -110
Dolphins +10, 1u -125
Dolphins +14 / OPEN, 1u +101
Eagles / Vikings, .75u +130
Eagles-Giants o48, 1u -115
Niners o26.5, 1u -110
Ravens -12.5, 1u -105
Ravens -6 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Ravens -6 / OPEN, 1u -115
Texans / Ravens / Patriots, 1u +108
Vikings -3, 1.5u -115

 

[TW66]

bol today rambler

 

[rambler882]

Quick hits.

Bills +3, 1u +100.... Fading Jaguars in the hope they give up. Allen being back put me over the edge + love Bills defense.
Broncos +3, 1u +100...underrated Broncos defense matches up relatively well against Steelers. Broncos offense should be able to keep this close
Broncos +9 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Browns +1, .75u -105....main hesitation is the Hue Jackson helping Bengals angle. I sort of forgot I told myself to stay off of this. That said, matchup favors Browns defense significantly
Browns o23, 1u -110....Bengals defense sucks. Not over complicating it
Dolphins +10, 1u -125...Not a direct play on Tannehill but similar to Allen getting a better QB pushed me over the edge. I like Fins off a bye, Colts sell high, and double digits is just too much. Did not over analyze and is entirely a sell high play
Dolphins +14 / OPEN, 1u +101
Eagles / Vikings, .75u +130
Eagles-Giants o48, 1u -115....Eagles have no DBs, Giants can put up at least 17, if Eagles wake up on offense 27+ is realistic. I'll just fade injuries and put money against offensive talent in OBJ+Saquon v. Wentz & crew
Niners o26.5, 1u -110...fading TB defense + a play on Shanahan
Ravens -12.5, 1u -105....cross country bad team off a win against a shitty cardinals that they acted like was a super bowl. Ravens could win by 30
Ravens -6 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Ravens -6 / OPEN, 1u -115
Texans / Ravens / Patriots, 1u +108...wanted Texans ML for now but cannot endorse this play entirely. I love their defensive matchup v. Titans, at home, after owner dies, and for whatever reason I'm not impressed by the Titans like most other people
Vikings -3, 1.5u -115.....data favors Vikings, my favorite play of the week (after Falcons TT, that worked out well) but against Rodgers so just sticking to 1.5u

 

[rambler882]

Wasnt expecting much out of lamar jackson but hes playing terrible.

 

[rambler882]

9-5, +2.38u. Nice comeback after Falcons debacle. Hit 2 first leg of teasers too.

Vikings -3
Vikings ML to close parlay
Texans ML to close parlay

 

[rambler882]

Vikings get us there and we are sitting around +4.5u on the week. If it weren't for the Falcons debacle we would be around +8u or so but that is part of the game. Just glad that sticking to my guns and firing like I normally would v. hesitating paid off.

Texans ML to close out the week.

 

[rambler882]

11-5, +4.86u on the week. Texans ML to get us to 5.94u hopefully.

 

[D-Woww]

excellent week

 

[rambler882]

Texans +4 live, .5u -110

 

[rambler882]

Season: 113-86, 56.8%, +26.09u
Week 1: 9-10, -1.21u
Week 2: 9-7, +2.2u
Week 3: 16-5, +10.32u
Week 4: 6-5, +3.34u
Week 5: 9-11, -1.72u
Week 6: 9-4, +6.7u
Week 7: 9-10, -1.64u
Week 8: 9-3, +8.0u
Week 9: 8-9, -2.43u
Week 10: 7-3, +3.25u
Week 11: 9-14, -7.16u
Week 12: 13-5, +6.44u