Tail or Fade: NFL Week 1

[rambler882]

2021: +55.99u

Rams +2.5, 1u -110
Allen Robinson o60.5, 1u -110
Isaiah McKenzie o3.5, 1u +124

 

[rambler882]

Note to self, betting in haste is not a winning recipe.

 

[rambler882]

Steelers +7.5 2u -118
Browns +1, 1u -110
Eagles -5.5, 1u -110
Patriots +3.5, 1u -110
Patriots +9.5 / Packers +7.5, 1u -120
Colts -7, 1u -110
Colts / Taylor TD, 1u -130
Giants +6, 1u -120
Cardinals +6.5, 1u -114
Chargers -3.5, 1u -110
Buccaneers -2.5, 1u -110
Niners / Ravens, 1u -122

Alvin Kamara TD, 1u -145
Christian McCaffrey TD, 1u -125
Mark Andrews o64.5, 1u -115
Justin Herbert o284.5, 1u -110
Kyler Murray o256.5, 1u -110
Travis Kelce o6.5, 1u +105
Amon-Ra St. Brown o55.5, .75u -115
Amon-Ra St. Brown o5.5, .75u -102

Steelers +10.5 / Eagles ML / Taylor TD / Kamara TD / Ravens ML / Chargers ML, .5u +1022

 

[C-MAN]

Here we go Steelers…

 

[rambler882]

Live Colts +9.5, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Vikings -1.5, 1u -112

 

[rambler882]

Steelers +7.5 2u -118
Browns +1, 1u -110
Eagles -5.5, 1u -110
Patriots +3.5, 1u -110
Patriots +9.5 / Packers +7.5, 1u -120
Colts -7, 1u -110
Colts / Taylor TD, 1u -130
Giants +6, 1u -120
Cardinals +6.5, 1u -114
Chargers -3.5, 1u -110
Buccaneers -2.5, 1u -110
Niners / Ravens, 1u -122

Alvin Kamara TD, 1u -145
Christian McCaffrey TD, 1u -125
Mark Andrews o64.5, 1u -115
Justin Herbert o284.5, 1u -110
Kyler Murray o256.5, 1u -110
Travis Kelce o6.5, 1u +105
Amon-Ra St. Brown o55.5, .75u -115
Amon-Ra St. Brown o5.5, .75u -102

Steelers +10.5 / Eagles ML / Taylor TD / Kamara TD / Ravens ML / Chargers ML, .5u +1022

Bought out Cardinals +6.5, no play

 

[rambler882]

Live Austin Ekeler TD, 1u +260

 

[rambler882]

Fournette TD, 1u -105

 

[rambler882]

Sure why not, I'll make back any losses this year anyway haha. I don't think I've ever had a winning week 1.

Seahawks +7, 1u -125
Rashaad Penny o69.5, 1u -115
Rashaad Penny TD, 1u +160
Rashaad Penny or Javonte Williams 1st TD, .5u +450 (FanDuel boost)
Tyler Lockett o3.5, 1u -156

 

[rambler882]

Sure why not, I'll make back any losses this year anyway haha. I don't think I've ever had a winning week 1.

Seahawks +7, 1u -125
Rashaad Penny TD, 1u +160
Rashaad Penny or Javonte Williams 1st TD, .5u +450 (FanDuel boost)
Tyler Lockett o3.5, 1u -156

Quick rationale on this is when I went position by position and while the Broncos have the sexier names, star power, etc. the stats last year were somewhat comparable in total. In a few spots Broncos had an advantage, others Seahawks. I could not find a great angle one way or another...but where I ended up settling is Pete Carroll should be quite a bit better than Nathaniel Hackett at preparing for a game and should be able to game plan for Russ better than anyone. Should is always the key word but I like Carroll to have his team ready to keep this close in what should be lower scoring.

As far as the props, when Geno started last year they clearly went run heavy and the Broncos were not particularly good at stopping the run. I expect Penny to get alot of touches and if they get inside the 10, I am banking on them not throwing it much to punch it in. The 1st TD was just a FanDuel boost so I'm taking the value. As for Lockett, he had the most targets (not much more than DK) in games Geno started. The o3.5 is juiced to hell but I like it.