Tail or Fade: Conferences

[rambler882]

Regular Season: -11.18u
Playoffs: somewhere in the -10u range (I fucked up book keeping)

Just been doing my thing betting a ton, and grinding back. Lowest point of season was -52u so landing at -11u is good enough given entertainment value. Was trying out ALOT of new angles and learned a bit to help for next year. My intent will be to focus on bigger, fewer bets, and peppering in lighter things next season. Enough about that.

At the open I locked in Bengals and Eagles. Bengals I did because of the Mahomes injury and the unknown of it. Best case it was bad, worst case +2.5 would be the best number and it was. Told myself I can analyze during the week and buy off if need be. Eagles ML was the other side and frankly nothing has changed my mind there.

Bengals +2.5, 6u -105
Bengals +8 / CLOSED, 2u -120
Bengals +7 / Eagles +4, 2u -120
Eagles ML, 5u -126
Eagles / Purdue, 2u +109

Futures
Bengals, 1u +2000
Niners, 1u +1500
Eagles, 1.5u +356

 

[rambler882]

Eagles.

Hitting on a few of the biggest pieces for me. QB matchup largely favors the Eagles. Hurts has proven himself and that his decision making is sound. Factoring in the Niners pass rush, mobility and a great OL helps offset which the Eagles both have. Purdy Purdy Purdy...how will he stack up against the best pass rush in the NFL? There is nothing that tells me to put faith in this and while there were a few drives he looked 'ok' versus the Cowboys, it wasn't like he put on a clinic and holding a Niners ticket that game I was super nervous. Sticking with that data here, Eagles have a big advantage in the QB and ability to get to QB. Beyond the QB on offense, each team does have a strong run game (factoring in Hurts) and realistically the receiving core is on par. I won't say Hurts is a significantly better passer than Purdy, but an edge.

On the defensive side of the ball the Niners have the edge in run defense by a fair margin but the Eagles signing of Joseph and Suh has improved what was once a weakness plus Jordan Davis got healthy. Then McCaffrey had the calf issue which can linger so I'm not sitting here thinking either team gonna run the ball but with Shanahan the logic for me is the Niners have a better chance to have success but not a slam dunk. Kittle should have success but the Niners just have too many options in a game plan to guess at this point.

HC, obvisously edge to Shanahan. As far as strength of schedule and competition. Both teams played trash.

So, why bullish on the Eagles for me? I do think the Niners can be exploited in the passing game. Eagles OL is easily top 3, Hurts can scramble and then you have Brown-Smith-Goedert. We saw a bit of this in the Seattle game with Metcalf but that team has a swiss cheese defense. Flip side, call it eyeball test in combination with data but Purdy worries me. Kid runs in circles, throws it up, and so far has been lucky. This Eagles pass rush and defensive backfield is no fucking joke. A turnover or 2 can turn this game upside down fast.

Gimme the Eagles and I'll probably add to the above to land in the 10u range.

 

[rambler882]

Bengals...I think

Mentioned above I jumped on them +2.5 and teaser as I thought it could move plus unknown on Mahomes. It is safe to say Mahomes is not 100% but his 80% is still a top 5 QB so its just a distraction.

Getting into where I'm at with this is I started looking at strength of schedule. Chiefs bottom 5, Bengals top 5. I do factor this in when trying to weight the data I'm looking at. It is very easy to look at data in aggregate and say this team is great in the pass, this team is bad at stopping the run, etc. The Chiefs schedule v. defenses is ranked 21st meaning they got to face softer defenses. Bengals, 3rd hardest. Again, not to say the Chiefs have a bad offense but I do consider this when understanding the data. Chiefs ranked 1st v. 21st schedule, Bengals ranked 4th v. 3rd hardest. Defensively Bengals are 11th in dvoa, Chiefs 17th (14th weighted). Bengals 5th hardest schedule, Chiefs 30th. What is the takeaway for me here? The Bengals have simply played more consistent, tougher competition than the Chiefs so naturally components of their metrics will appear lower. DVOA and other advanced analytics is meant to account for this but there is something to be said in it all.

Burrow v. injured Mahomes - wash
Head Coach - Chiefs
Run game - edge to Bengals. Mixon & Perine are a better duo

Bengals OL. They got away with it v. Bills because the Bills suck at getting to the QB with the front 4. The Chiefs are top 5 in ASR and this does worry me a bit. That said, Burrow has a high rating v. the blitz and pressure in general.... I do think this is going to be the largest factor that is really hard to cap against. Who knows how this OL will hold up but it is why I would play the Chiefs and I'm still thinking on it.

Beyond sack rate... The Bengals have surrendered the lowest QBR in NFL and the Chiefs are 24th. What I'd need to really dig into is what I mention above, in aggregate data is misleading. What QBs did the Bengals face? Tua and Lamar...and of course the game v. Mahomes. Flip side, the Chiefs did play better QBs but it is not night and day beyond Herbert. Some comparable QBs like Allen, Brady mixed in.

I don't like looking at past games or performances and say "Bengals won 3 so advantage". Alot changes always. These are two good head coaches. What I am very curious to see is without Tyreek Hill, in a game of this magnitude...how do the Chiefs perform? He is easily a top 3 WR in the NFL and while the Chiefs offense is still top 3 because of Mahomes... at some point not having that type of talent matters. How woudl the Bengals be without Chase? Clearly a drop off and even if you fill in with the likes of Toney, JuJu, etc.... still not a top 3 WR. Just something I keep thinking about.

Overall, who is going to win this game? Truly a coin flip to me and I may buy off the 6u opener a bit to land on 3u and let the teasers ride. Props I'm considering is alt lines for Higgins, Kelce, and Burrow rush yards.

 

[MikeU]

“What I am very curious to see is without Tyreek Hill, in a game of this magnitude...how do the Chiefs perform? He is easily a top 3 WR in the NFL and while the Chiefs offense is still top 3 because of Mahomes... at some point not having that type of talent matters. How woudl the Bengals be without Chase? Clearly a drop off and even if you fill in with the likes of Toney, JuJu, etc.... still not a top 3 WR. Just something I keep thinking about.”

This is spot on in my opinion. Talking w my friends I keep coming to the conclusion that this game feels like it’s the boat load talented Bengals vs just Reid & Mahomes. So if Mahomes isn’t Magic Mahomes, it’s hard for me to see them winning.

 

[rambler882]

“What I am very curious to see is without Tyreek Hill, in a game of this magnitude...how do the Chiefs perform? He is easily a top 3 WR in the NFL and while the Chiefs offense is still top 3 because of Mahomes... at some point not having that type of talent matters. How woudl the Bengals be without Chase? Clearly a drop off and even if you fill in with the likes of Toney, JuJu, etc.... still not a top 3 WR. Just something I keep thinking about.”

This is spot on in my opinion. Talking w my friends I keep coming to the conclusion that this game feels like it’s the boat load talented Bengals vs just Reid & Mahomes. So if Mahomes isn’t Magic Mahomes, it’s hard for me to see them winning.

It truly is a coin flip. Who makes the big mistake? Who makes the singular big play? I'm sticking with Bengals but may just buy off a bit. The OL scares me and if healthy, I'd be more confident in CIN

 

[rambler882]

Regular Season: -11.18u
Playoffs: somewhere in the -10u range (I fucked up book keeping)

Just been doing my thing betting a ton, and grinding back. Lowest point of season was -52u so landing at -11u is good enough given entertainment value. Was trying out ALOT of new angles and learned a bit to help for next year. My intent will be to focus on bigger, fewer bets, and peppering in lighter things next season. Enough about that.

At the open I locked in Bengals and Eagles. Bengals I did because of the Mahomes injury and the unknown of it. Best case it was bad, worst case +2.5 would be the best number and it was. Told myself I can analyze during the week and buy off if need be. Eagles ML was the other side and frankly nothing has changed my mind there.

Bengals +2.5, 6u -105
Bengals +8 / CLOSED, 2u -120
Bengals +7 / Eagles +4, 2u -120
Eagles ML, 5u -126
Eagles / Purdue, 2u +109

Futures
Bengals, 1u +2000
Niners, 1u +1500
Eagles, 1.5u +356

Eagles -2.5, 2u -122
Eagles / Brown o39.5, 1u -105

Brown o39.5 / Higgins o39.5 / Pacheco o24.5, 2u -129
Purdy INT, 2u -148

 

[MikeU]

It truly is a coin flip. Who makes the big mistake? Who makes the singular big play? I'm sticking with Bengals but may just buy off a bit. The OL scares me and if healthy, I'd be more confident in CIN

Ok for sure! I’ve been on Bengals ML & have Bengals to win SB! Let’s go

 

[Capaholic]

Rambler knows I’m pulling for him each week as we chat a bit, but the league had 18 games to try to stop this non-Tyreek offense. And the offense was more efficient in passing and rushing. In my opinion, The game won’t be lost because KC can’t score. It’s whether Joe B has all day to throw or not.

 

[MikeU]

Rambler knows I’m pulling for him each week as we chat a bit, but the league had 18 games to try to stop this non-Tyreek offense. And the offense was more efficient in passing and rushing. In my opinion, The game won’t be lost because KC can’t score. It’s whether Joe B has all day to throw or not.

Another valid point for sure

 

[MikeU]

Ok for sure! I’ve been on Bengals ML & have Bengals to win SB! Let’s go

Oh and also have a teaser: Bengals +7.5 / Niners +8.5…Prob just going to leave it at that until we see the flow of the games…especially the trenches in the Bengals game.

 

[rambler882]

Rambler knows I’m pulling for him each week as we chat a bit, but the league had 18 games to try to stop this non-Tyreek offense. And the offense was more efficient in passing and rushing. In my opinion, The game won’t be lost because KC can’t score. It’s whether Joe B has all day to throw or not.

Completely fair. The Hill piece is just something I've thought about, not a determining factor. Was just as I was looking at skill position comparison. Still think this game is completely a coin flip and hope it is a classic

 

[rambler882]

Was live betting in-game thread. Housekeeping.

Niners u17.5, 2u -135
Eagles / Bengals +3.5, 1u -119
Eagles -8, 1u -125
Eagles -3, 1u -130

 

[HUNT]

You had the eagles pegged. Great job.

 

[rambler882]

You had the eagles pegged. Great job.

AJ Brown and Purdy INT prop fucked me tho......gonna lose around 5-7u there. Bleh.

 

[rambler882]

Win about 10u on the Eagles, all the props lose. +4.38u

 

[rambler882]

Bengals +2.5, 6u -105
Bengals +8 / CLOSED, 2u -120
Bengals +7 / CLOSED, 2u -120
Bengals +3.5 / CLOSED, 1u -119

Mixon o22.5, 1u -110
Higgins o58.5, 1u -110
Higgins o49.5 / Kelce o6.5, 1u +124

 

[rambler882]

Last one

Mahomes o10.5 rushing yards, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Sort of, accidentally hit submit.

Bengals +8 / o42.5, 2u -120

 

[rambler882]

Sickening way to lose. Still got a few units bc of live betting o18.5 and the teasers.

+7.16u today