Tail or Fade: Conference Championships

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Season: +37.17u
Playoffs: +5.29u
Total: +42.46u

Futures
Rams, 1u +2800
Chiefs, 1u +1300

Hedge
49ers, 2u +460

Chiefs -.5 / 49ers +10, 2u -130
Chiefs 1H -4.5, 1.5u -110

All in all I cannot find a reason to put money on the Bengals as a hedge. There is nothing I can find that truly has me believing they win. Looking into their matchup, the volume of 20+ yard plays are such an outlier that it is difficult to solely assume the same happens. Focusing in on line play, each are comparable when it comes to defensive line play but the Chiefs have an advantage attacking the air. Flip side, Bengals offensive line is a huge weakness right now and with that, I cannot overlook or think the Bengals are able to pull off the upset without a redo when it comes to explosive plays.

Niners and Rams I view as more of a coin flip. The short version is the Niners can exploit the primary Ram defensive weakness which is middle of the field and linebackers. Of course, the Rams have the ability to torch the secondary with Kupp, Odell, and Jefferson. This is a coin flip type of game and is why I decided to hedge my futures here and I like the value in the teaser play.

Gun to head picking sides are Chiefs -7 and 49ers +3.5 but inevitably there will be live betting value here.
 
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love the kc/niners teaser, think that gonna be one my bigger plays this weekend as well, sucks we gotta pay the extra juice for the 6.5 to get niners to +10 but doesnt make any sense not paying the extra 20 cents and having +9.5 (no thanks), was hoping it would maybe go to +4 sometime during week and wouldnt have to, isnt looking like gonna happen tho. pretty nice numbers you got on the futures, you remember what point in season you played them?
 
far as cincy/kc goes i think there were a lot of things that happened in that game that incredibly unlikely to repeat themselves, not just the big plays. Dont wanna make unreasonable excuses for them but i do think kelce and hill were not all that long removed from being on covid list, seemed like lot of guys took a week or 2 to get themselves back to normal after returning from Rona.
 
love the kc/niners teaser, think that gonna be one my bigger plays this weekend as well, sucks we gotta pay the extra juice for the 6.5 to get niners to +10 but doesnt make any sense not paying the extra 20 cents and having +9.5 (no thanks), was hoping it would maybe go to +4 sometime during week and wouldnt have to, isnt looking like gonna happen tho. pretty nice numbers you got on the futures, you remember what point in season you played them?
Rams - day of stafford trade. I beat the books
Chiefs - 11/1 before giants game
 
I think it gonna be close for real. Lean rams winning but i be pretty shocked if it not a 1 score game., niners are tough!!

Rams had them in the foxhole a few weeks ago then shit hit the fan. Not seeing it this week. Who knows though
 
Don't you be hedging. Rams win comfortably.
I wasn't going to, but with +2800 I figured play it safe and sacrifice 2u there. Been getting butt fucked in college hoops the last few days so definitely losing some mojo and cockiness to keep swinging for fences.
 
@Ryno14 enjoy.

Ja'Marr Chase u88.5 rec yards, 1u -110
Jerick McKinnon o25.5 rec yards, 1u -110
MeCole Hardman longest rec o13.5, 1u -130
Byron Pringle o3.5 receptions, 1u -102
Joe Mixon o3.5 / Tyler Higbee o3.5 receptions, 1u +156
 
@Ryno14 enjoy.

Ja'Marr Chase u88.5 rec yards, 1u -110
Jerick McKinnon o25.5 rec yards, 1u -110
MeCole Hardman longest rec o13.5, 1u -130
Byron Pringle o3.5 receptions, 1u -102
Joe Mixon o3.5 / Tyler Higbee o3.5 receptions, 1u +156
Too much time on my hands additions.

C.J. Uzomah o3.5 receptions, .75u -128
Joe Mixon o3.5 receptions, .75u -166
Van Jefferson longest rec o17.5, .75u -120
Mixon TD / Pringle TD / Jefferson o31.5, .75u +990
Chiefs 1H ML / Mahomes o250 / McKinnon o25.5 / Mixon TD, .5u +555
 
Updated.

Van Jefferson longest o17.5, .75u -120
Tyler Higbee o39.5, .75u -110
Tyler Higbee first TD, .5u +1000
Samuel TD / Higbee TD / Higbee o39.5 / Rams ML, .5u +1307
 
Awful luck continues. Higbee out after 1 drive. My fucking god. Im so over all this bs.

Kendall Blanton TD, .5u +650
 
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