Continued to review and cannot find a reason to alter my wagers. Brady's hand I cannot factor in as who the hell knows but just too much going in both the Vikings & Patriots favor from a matchup perspective to ignore.
Feeling real good about two favorites in the championship games is not up my alley so I definitely have pause, but barring mental mistake galore I see both Patriots & Vikings controlling each game. Vikings may have every advantage from coaching to line play to you name it. Jaguars only have the totality of their defense over the Patriots, but the Patriots have improved immensely in both defending the run and pass.
The Titans, to me, offensively are very similar to the Jaguars. The Patriots had no issue with them as well as several strong offensive opponents 2H of season. Then when you look at advanced statistics it shows how much the Patriots have improved defensively as well.
Vikings, short and sweet, I don't think I can give a clear advantage anywhere to the Eagles beyond HFA. OL is the closet one for me giving the nod to the Eagles, but the Peters injury was covered up by Wentz. Also, the Eagles run game is not strong as many indicate. 17th in run DVOA and when you have that against a top run defense if not the best...disaster. Then you go over to Foles....game of his life would need to occur against...a top pass defense - how?
Yes, the Eagles have a great front 4 but the Vikings have a significant coaching advantage and their running game is quite a bit better. Then you go to Keenum and the style of offense can help limit the front 4s success.
Anyway, super square but I just cannot justify an angle on Eagles or Jaguars outside of fade the public / the contrarian POV.
