Tail or Fade: CFB Week 9

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Week 1: 3-10, -7.78u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.57u
Week 3: 10-4, +6.9u
Week 4: 8-7, -1.05u
Week 5: 6-9, -2.84u
Week 6: 7-9, -2.63u
Week 7: 10-3, +6.6u
Week 8: 2-13, -12.96u
Season: 51-59, 46.4%, -13.19u

Aiming to finish the season +15.0u. Transparently I have not been able to focus on CFB much if at all this season because of work, taking care of family, and the normal grind. Getting back to basics on how I used to put up W's. For starters, listing the games I have circled. May play all but definitely most of these, I like to wait for reduced juice and/or dig in a little bit during the week which I have not been able to do much of this season. Usually just a short amount of time Friday night or Saturday mornings. That is going to change.

I think several of these will move in my favor, waiting game.

Colorado +12. USC lookahead and buy low
Miami +5.5. Off a terrible loss and I like the value here, but Pittsburgh pass defense is a cause of hesitation
Wisconsin +14. Too many points, plain and simple
Michigan St. +5.5. Coach off a bye and the MSU defense should have success slowing down PSU
Louisville +3.5. This is a straight gamble. UVA off a blowout win and Ville off a blowout loss. UVA defense is for real but gimme the home dog
TCU +1.5. May have to bite on Horned Frogs TT over instead, not sure how Texas stops the run
Buffalo -2.5. Need to dig more to see how Central Michigan stacks up v. the run. Face value the line seems right
Oklahoma St. +8.5. Buy low? Iowa St. has the statistical advantage and should be able to pass on OKST at will. Will analyze deeper
Tulsa +10.5. Spot play with Memphis having SMU on deck and Memphis embarrassing Tulane



Texas Tech -4, 2u -102
Miami +6, 1u -105
Wisconsin +14.5, 1u -105
Louisville +3.5, 1u -110
Tulsa +10.5, 1u -105
Tulane +3.5, 1u -105
Michigan +7 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Notre Dame u24.5, .75u -115
Michigan State +6, 1u -120
Michigan St. +11 / OPEN, 1u -105
Temple +12, .75u -107
Temple o24.5, .75u +100
TCU o27.5, 1u -110
Indiana o26.5, 1u +100
Arizona o26.5, 1u -110
Purdue -3 / OPEN, 1u -115
 
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Texas Tech -3.5. Kansas off a tough loss, and while Tech defense is soft at best, Kansas PD is less than average
Michigan -2.5, still feels like a great buy low spot against an overrated Notre Dame. Pretty even match up to be honest but perhaps my bias against ND is impacting me here, don't care
 
Texas Tech -3.5. Kansas off a tough loss, and while Tech defense is soft at best, Kansas PD is less than average
Michigan -2.5, still feels like a great buy low spot against an overrated Notre Dame. Pretty even match up to be honest but perhaps my bias against ND is impacting me here, don't care
Interested in the over with TT/KU
ND off a bye.
 
Texas Tech -4, 2u -102
Miami +6, 1u -105
Wisconsin +14.5, 1u -105
Louisville +3.5, 1u -110
Tulsa +10.5, 1u -105
Tulane +3.5, 1u -105
Michigan +7 / CLOSED, 1u -105

Waiting for Michigan St. to hit +7, Toledo inj report, Indiana & Arizona TT potentially.
 
Michigan State +6, 1u -120
TCU o27.5, 1u -110
Indiana o26.5, 1u +100
Arizona o26.5, 1u -110
 
Was shaping up to be a nice day but the late add of Purdue, Texas Tech melting end of 1H letting Kansas back in game, and the Temple play (which was just something I told myself not to do, but then did it) kept me from jumping up about +4-6u

Week 1: 3-10, -7.78u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.57u
Week 3: 10-4, +6.9u
Week 4: 8-7, -1.05u
Week 5: 6-9, -2.84u
Week 6: 7-9, -2.63u
Week 7: 10-3, +6.6u
Week 8: 2-13, -12.96u
Week 9: 9-7, +.81u
Season: 60-66, 47.6%, -12.38u
 
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